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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 120
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Olga Lounge
      #100770 - Wed Oct 23 2019 05:56 AM

Something to watch for in the climatologically favored region for tropical cyclogenesis in late October...A large area of very disorganized showers and thunderstorms stretching from Belize, across the Yucatan into the far SW GOMEX has a low chance of development late in the week off the east coast of Mexico. Thereafter, the disturbance is likely to be absorbed by a cold front forecast to sweep across the GOMEX over the weekend.

GFS struggles with the idea of a closed low (however weak and elongated) lingering in the Bay of Campeche after the passage of the cold front.

This disturbance has been Invest tagged, 97L, and the title has been updated accordingly.
TD SEVENTEEN on 10/25/19 10AM CDT. TS Olga 10/25/19 4PM CDT Advsiory - Ciel

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Oct 25 2019 04:41 PM)


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Keith B
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 39
Loc: FL, Orange County
Re: Disorganized Yucan wave [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100771 - Thu Oct 24 2019 10:17 AM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
950 AM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Early morning visible satellite images indicate that the
circulation of the low pressure area in the Bay of Campeche has
become a little better defined. The associated showers and
thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, and this
system could become a short-lived tropical depression before it
merges with a cold front by late Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Thank you moderator for assist, a little rusty on the link. : )

NHC link

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 120
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Disorganized Yucan wave [Re: Keith B]
      #100772 - Thu Oct 24 2019 02:14 PM

The rapidly approaching cold front and associated shear will win out, but I think there will be a depression by 5 pm today, then maybe a PTC early Friday, then even a low-end tropical storm form later in the day before the cold front scoops up and absorbs the system.
GOMEX visible sat loop
If this area had another 24-48 hours to linger over the 80F+ waters of the Bay of Campeche ahead of the arrival of the cold front, the potential for tropical cyclogenesis would much more concerning.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1931
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Disorganized Yucan wave [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100773 - Thu Oct 24 2019 04:20 PM

Quote:

The rapidly approaching cold front and associated shear will win out, but I think there will be a depression by 5 pm today, then maybe a PTC early Friday, then even a low-end tropical storm form later in the day before the cold front scoops up and absorbs the system.




Or perhaps a PTC by 5pm today and a depression by early Friday ( think this is what Iso meant )

There is definitely a strong circulation, markedly lowering pressures, and winds that support at least 30-35 mph/TD, if not possibly marginal storm-force, but the circulation is still very elongated and troffy, as of 4pm EDT today. As PTC is ideally reserved for situations where watches and warnings may need to be issued prior to a system becoming formally classified, it does not seem likely to me that a PTC would go up in this situation, as 97L is unlikely to affect land prior to merging with the approaching cold front, and NHC most recently hinted their thinking of TD at best, rather than named storm.


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1931
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: TD 17 Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100776 - Fri Oct 25 2019 12:02 PM




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