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General Discussion >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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General Model Forecast Lounge
      #100966 - Wed May 27 2020 06:14 PM

This forums is for model talk in the season not attached to anything specific, when it becomes clear something is happening, or an invest forms, a new post for it may be created.

That said, after Bertha there is a potential Eastern Pacific to Atlantic Crossover in 7-10 days in the Gulf or Western Caribbean that is worth watching, particularly since the GFS shows it developing into a hurricane. European Ensembles also have warmed to this possibility this afternoon. But it is still a bit too early to say if anything will happen, but the area is unusually ripe for it this year. So it's an area to watch as we enter into the actual Hurricane Season.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Model Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101032 - Sun Jul 26 2020 04:48 PM

not really model storms, but calling out the area in the North Central Gulf, which seems like it could be a candidate for surprise development if it weren't for the high shear in the area, along with an area east of Florida. Gonzalo's remnants is another, as well as the wave east of 92L.

None of these are called out in the TWO, but are ones I'm also watching.


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EMS
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 49
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Re: General Model Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101157 - Wed Aug 05 2020 09:22 AM

Last few runs of GFS insist on spinning up a hurricane into the Gulf out of the SW Caribbean fifteen days out. Granted long way away but interesting.

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Prospero
Storm Tracker


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Re: General Model Forecast Lounge [Re: EMS]
      #101159 - Sun Aug 09 2020 09:25 PM

Quote:

On top of this long range forecasts suggest that a strong high pressure ridge is likely to form in the last week or two of August, these typically block storms from recurving, and force them further west which means the chance for land impacts is also greater. This is for awareness to be vigilant this year, but trying to avoid hyping the situation.



OK, yes, but for us storm junkies, the hype is entertainment when daily news is annoying.



Of course, for you pros, keep it real, but feed us as much as possible with anything interesting.

--------------------
Gulfport, Florida USA - Personal Weather Station:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLGULFP5
My Live Beach Cam on Clearwater Beach:
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Prospero
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Re: General Model Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101160 - Tue Aug 11 2020 05:47 PM

TD 11:
Quote:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 112032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 40.0W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1450 MI...2335 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 40.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A
west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is forecast to
begin Wednesday night and continue through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday
night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg




--------------------
Gulfport, Florida USA - Personal Weather Station:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLGULFP5
My Live Beach Cam on Clearwater Beach:
https://beachresortcondos.com/clearwater-beach-live-webcam.html


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Model Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101161 - Sun Aug 16 2020 10:37 AM

Operational models are having difficult times with the current areas in the Atlantic, however ensembles are showing a rash of activity happening late this week into next, particularly around the West Caribbean/Bahamas.



This jives with general climatology, so the general idea of things ramping up quickly starting this week and next, is likely to occur.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Model Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101162 - Sun Aug 16 2020 03:28 PM

In the TWO, the second of the two waves (eastern most one) is showing up quite well in the 12Z Euro today, as moving generally west, and into the Gulf, this trajectory (along with the high/ridge setup) is probably going to focus our attention on it pretty soon. Particularly since it has a decent potential to impact Florida and/or the Gulf.

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IsoFlame
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Reged: Wed
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: General Model Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101164 - Tue Aug 18 2020 08:16 AM

SST's 30C (+/-1C) in the NW Caribbean and throughout the Gulf of Mexico:

GOMEX

Will moisture and shear also be favorable for (potentially rapid) cyclogenesis when 97L enters the area?

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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ftlaudbob
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Re: General Model Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101165 - Tue Aug 18 2020 11:06 AM

97 is exploding right now! And perfect conditions ahead. I live just south of Cancun.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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IsoFlame
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Reged: Wed
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: General Model Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101285 - Fri Aug 28 2020 09:53 AM

GFS starting to hit on the second tropical wave now in the east tropical Atlantic developing in the central Atlantic passing north of the islands over the holiday weekend, then intensifying into a major hurricane re-curving in the Atlantic well east of Florida between Labor Day and the Sept 10th peak:
https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/precip_p12/gfs_namer_336_precip_p12.gif

Edited by IsoFlame (Fri Aug 28 2020 09:59 AM)


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IsoFlame
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Reged: Wed
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: General Model Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101286 - Sun Aug 30 2020 11:41 AM

GFS no longer touting an organized system the week after Labor Day- latest run showing a trough along the eastern seaboard with low pressure areas to the south:
https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/precip_p12/gfs_namer_336_precip_p12.gif

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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IsoFlame
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Reged: Wed
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: General Model Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101292 - Mon Aug 31 2020 05:06 PM

The sprawling area of convection that will move off the African coast into the far eastern Atlantic tonight has my attention:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/se...R&length=12
I'm not sure if conditions in the central Atlantic will be supportive of development late this week after it enters and traverses the central Atlantic, but the size/momentum of the initial wave, the higher latitude that it may track, and the proximity to the Sept 10th seasonal peak activity has my undivided attention.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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Owlguin
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Re: General Model Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101370 - Wed Sep 23 2020 08:55 AM

GFS is getting more consistent in wanting to spin something up in the Western Caribbean moving it North in in 1-2 weeks.

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Tazmanian93
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Re: General Model Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #101371 - Wed Sep 23 2020 11:51 AM

Being in Pinellas, don't like that

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Owlguin
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Re: General Model Forecast Lounge [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #101397 - Tue Oct 13 2020 01:16 PM

Well, GFS is doing it again in the Western Caribbean, about 8 days out. Too late in the model run to provide consistency in the trajectory, seems to be North and then NW, or just NW.

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