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Last advisory issued for Isaias as it moves over Quebec. Other than 94L (which looks like it won't develop) Atlantic is quiet for a bit.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Isaias) , Major: 667 (Michael) Florida - Any: 667 (Michael) Major: 667 (Michael)
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General Discussion >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Isaias Forecast Lounge
      #101011 - Fri Jul 24 2020 03:25 PM

The wave currently with a 40% chance to develop in the far east Atlantic is now being tracked as Invest 92L.

GFS Models don't show much development, however the Euro shows a formidable System approaching the islands later next week and potentially more impacts down the road (although the long range Euro track is windshield wiper-ing between Recurve and Yucatan, and the 12Z is between those).. We'll be watching it closely.


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doug
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101014 - Fri Jul 24 2020 06:54 PM

yes it is early but let's watch closely

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101024 - Sat Jul 25 2020 07:19 AM

Very large spread on the models today in the longer range, but it implies 92L will be one to watch both in the Caribbean and beyond. Until the system develops, this isn't much more of a sign to "Watch something" rather than anything important.

The 0z Euro has the closest approach to the islands on Wednesday, then tides the Caribbean, ending between Cuba and the Yucatan. Earlier runs had it north or in the greater Antilles.

The 6z GFS picks up on this system finally, has it in the Windwards or just north, on Thursday, near Puerto Rico on Friday, makes a run through the Bahamas a week from Sunday, then recruves it between Florida and the Bahamas.

12Z CMC cuts through Puerto Rico, then recurves before the Bahamas.

0Z German Icon takes it through Puerto Rico and the Bahamas

0z UKMET takes it into the Bahamas after passing over us USVI and Puerto RIco.where the run ends.

Euro ensembles:


gfs ensemble anim:


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Prospero
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101026 - Sat Jul 25 2020 08:37 PM

Any updates on 92L?

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vpbob21
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101027 - Sat Jul 25 2020 11:09 PM

92L now up to 80% chances for development. This is starting to have "that look" of a classic long tracker. There seems to be general agreement on a WNW track toward the norther Lesser Antilles around Thursday, near Puerto Rico or Hispaniola around Friday, then over or east of the Bahamas next weekend and then somewhere off the southeast U.S. coast by August 3rd and 4th. Looks like the East Coast is going to have to watch this, as well as Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and the islands around the NE Caribbean.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101028 - Sun Jul 26 2020 09:21 AM

Another day

0z Euro is a bit faster with a Wednesday night run over the Leewards (weakish), then stays south of Puerto Rico and then goes right over Hispaniola on Friday, which weakens it a lot more, over part of cuba and leaves a very disorganized mess to enter the Gulf. (The earlier 12 Z euro went into the Bahamas and set up for a recurve)

6Z GFS misses the Caribbean islands barely to the north, and then recurves, closest approach to the US is late on August 4th, but completely avoids landfall.

0z CMC is similar to the GFS, but briefly clips the Northeastern Caribbean islands, and gets very close to the Bahamas, but also avoids US landfall.

0z Icon is similar to the CMC but a bit further east once past clipping the Caribbean islands.

0z UkMet barely avoids the NE Caribbean islands and then stays east of the Bahamas

Most are showing Recurve today, with the very notable exception of the Euro. Before a system has actually formed, it's very questionable beyond 3 days, so just be aware, there's a reason these models are on the lounge and not the front page. There's no real trend right now, other than weaker keeps west, stronger turns north. Climatology favors the recurve.


Ensembles:
Euro:

Gfs:


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JMII
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: vpbob21]
      #101029 - Sun Jul 26 2020 03:58 PM

Quote:

This is starting to have "that look" of a classic long tracker.




Agreed since it formed so far east. It looked pretty healthy yesterday but not so much today, there is a ton of dry air head of it. The next wave coming off Africa appears to have a much more favorable environment.

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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101031 - Sun Jul 26 2020 04:47 PM

12Z Euro is still a caribbean island cruiser that stays weak, and never amounts to much.

I don't think we'll know what to expect in the medium term for another 3 days or so. Recurveish models like GFS, or barrel through and die of Euro. Too much in the long term depends on the strength of the system.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101033 - Mon Jul 27 2020 06:32 AM

Models today, most seem to be on the weaker side, note the quality of the initialization data typically isn't as good before a storm has formed (as far as intensity and actual "center") in this case it's probably initialized too far north, so not posting images on this one.

0z Euro: Keeps it week, runs it through the Caribbean, passes north of Jamaica, and into the Gulf, completely disorganized most of the way.
6z GFS: Keeps it north/east of the Caribbean Islands and recurves it out to sea, fairly weak, except for a brief time near the islands.
0z CMC Moves it over the NE Caribbean islands Wednesday night, moderate TS, then through the Bahamas slightly stronger on Friday, gets stronger, and just east of North Carolina on Aug 3, no US landfall.
0z Icon: Moves it over the NE Caribbean as a Depression or Weak TS on Thursday, then recurves.

GFS Ensembles, majority stay east of the US.
Euro Ensembles: All Weak and over the Caribbean islands.

In short, nothing alarming about today's model runs at all. Only real exception is the Experimental GFS Parallel which does bring the system strong (Cat 3) into Eastern North Carolina on Aug 6th.

So it remains for us on monitoring, but not terribly concerned at the moment.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101034 - Tue Jul 28 2020 08:01 AM

Tuesday model run-through. Weak in the future remains the name of the game.

06Z GFS Keeps it week, depression or less. Near Guadeloupe midday tomorrow, over The Virgin islands on Thursday, still weak near the Turks and Caicos on Friday, Bahamas Saturday and Sunday, then into West Palm Beach on Monday, still very weak (Depression or less) then more or less dissipates over Florida at that point.

0z Euro is also extremely week, and follows the GFS through Thursday, but then rides the north coast of Hispaniola Friday, and crosses the Florida Keys on Saturday night into Sunday, entering the Gulf and then landfalling near Cedar Key north of Tampa on Tuesday night. All VERY weak, depression or just open wave. The storm never really gets going.

0z CMC Is similar to the Euro until Saturday where it strengthens and moves through the Bahamas, then clips Hatteras on Tuesday (Aug 4) and a pretty strong storm before heading out to sea..

0z Icon keeps it weak, and winds up in the Bahamas on Sunday.

0z HWRF Is near the Virgin Islands on Thursday, 993mb/Tropical Storm. Turks and Caicos on Friday, TS or Cat 1 Hurricane. Over Crooked Island in the Bahamas on Saturday, cat 1 hurricane. Clips Andros Island later on Saturday, Cat 2. Then ends the run starting to Recurve, as a Cat 3 just west of Grand Bahama on Sunday.

0z HMON Clips Antigua on Wednesday afternoon, weak, moves over the British Virgin Islands Thursday morning, TS, just north of the Turks and Caicos on Friday, Strong TS/Cat 1 hurricane. Then misses the rest of the islands and Recurves, ends run as a cat 2/3 hurricane though.

0z UKMet similar to Euro, but ends run on the south side of Andros Island on Monday.

Euro Ensembles:


GFS Ensembles:



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101036 - Tue Jul 28 2020 11:30 AM

PTC 9 is formed, closest analog I can find is 1995's Erin, which is one of the storms that hit E. Central Florida, and partially responsible for flhurricane.com being created in 1996.

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Keith B
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101037 - Tue Jul 28 2020 11:30 AM

Good info and graphics.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: Keith B]
      #101039 - Tue Jul 28 2020 02:29 PM

Midday Models

12Z Euro: Weak crossing of Guadeloupe tomorrow, then over Puero Rico into the Dominican Republic on Thursday, then riding the north coast of Cuba (remains very weak).

12Z GFS: Weak Crossing of Guadeloupe tomorrow, then over the Virgin Islands Thursday, strengthens some near the Turks and Caicos on Friday, goes over the SE Bahamas Saturday, Clips Andros island Sunday, weakens, then landfalls near Boca Raton on Monday then slowly moves through Florida and exits into the Gulf by Bradenton on Wed Aug 5, then moves up into the Panhandle.

12Z CMC weak crossing of Guadeloupe tomorrow, then over VI and part of PR Thursday, stays north of the Dominican republic, strengthens slightly as well, over the Inagua Islands on Friday, moves through Andros on Saturday, TS Landfall near West Palm on Sunday morning then exits back into the Atlantic near Daytona on Monday, then Clips the Outer Banks by Tuesday and out to sea.

12Z Icon weak crossing of Guadeloupe tomorrow, then over VI and part of PR Thursday, then collides with Dominican Republic Friday, then slips north, weak system passes over Key West on Monday, then ends the run west of Tampa in the Gulf.

12Z HWRF Passes over PR on Thursday as a TS, strengthens into Cat 1 north of DR later on Thursday, cat 2 over Exuma island in the Bahamas on Saturday, passes just east of Nassau as a strong cat 2/3, then over Grand Bahama, ends run well east of Florida.

12Z Ukmet keeps system east of Florida.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101042 - Tue Jul 28 2020 06:14 PM

It may be a tough one to forecast.

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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #101047 - Wed Jul 29 2020 08:12 AM


Quick Model run:

0z Euro, moves it over Hispaniola, keeps it very weak, moves generally west, over Cuba at times, and into the Gulf where it eventually effectively dissipates.
6z GFS over PR, then landfall in extreme S. Florida/Upper Keys on Sunday, very weak. then rides just offshore on the west coast of Florida dumping a lot of rain. (Weak)
0z CMC rides it over Hispaniola, then over Key west and offshore up the west coast of Florida with landfall in the Big Bend on Momday, weak, but a l.ittle more organized than the other models.
6z HWRF Clips the Dominican Republic, then over Andros island on Saturday (TS or Depression) weak landfall near West Palm Beach on Sunday.
HMON is similar to HWRF
0z UKMET keeps it weak, through Domincan Republic, part of Cuba, then into the Gulf, then inland near Tampa on Monday. (TD or weaker)
0z GFS Parallel calls for a recruve, but clips the Outer Banks.


The system still hasn't developed, so without a great center and init data, the models are tending to diverge a lot. Trend has generally been more west each run since the system is moving so quickly. If the system stays south of Hispaniola things change again.


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Owlguin
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101050 - Wed Jul 29 2020 02:32 PM

One thing for sure. It is racing along.

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JMII
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #101051 - Wed Jul 29 2020 04:37 PM

Quote:

One thing for sure. It is racing along.




Thus the shifting of the cone to the west. At this rate Jamaica needs to start watching it.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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EMS
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101052 - Wed Jul 29 2020 05:18 PM

I realize satellite can be deceiving but every time I look at the loop, it seems like the various swirls are trying to consolidate to the south and west of the NHC official position / forecast track. If that’s the case it looks more like it’s headed due west.

Will be interesting to see what tonight’s recon says about a closed circulation, position and movement. Can’t remember the last time a disturbance was at 90% chance of development for so long. But it is a rather large area / broad circulation.


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craigm
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: EMS]
      #101053 - Wed Jul 29 2020 07:43 PM

Quote:

I realize satellite can be deceiving but every time I look at the loop, it seems like the various swirls are trying to consolidate to the south and west of the NHC official position / forecast track. If that’s the case it looks more like it’s headed due west.

Will be interesting to see what tonight’s recon says about a closed circulation, position and movement. Can’t remember the last time a disturbance was at 90% chance of development for so long. But it is a rather large area / broad circulation.




Here is some great analysis:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #101055 - Wed Jul 29 2020 10:45 PM

My lounge thoughts, Isaias gets the name at 11PM tonight.

The models have had bad initialization constantly, it'll be further southwest than 8PM at 11pm, and the models will shift back west overnight to compensate. Florida is likely to get some impact, but the trek over Hispaniola will keep it in check, but not as much as if the system were very organized.

The 12Z UKMet is what I think is more realistic. (Which takes it partially over Cuba then into the Gulf briefly before back into Florida (Weak though, strong TS at best, unless we get a surprise). North Carolina may see another landfall also.

The NHC track will probably shift slightly east at 11, but it may not take into account the last minute center shift Southwest, so it too may wind up being shifted back west in the morning.

The biggest wildcard is Hispaniola. Normally storms get torn up by it, but this one is so large and disorganized it may not do much other than cause another center reformation.


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