cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Trof Invest #TBD centered east of the Bahamas 09/10/20 1741z
Base image credit: College of DuPage
A robust trof of low pressure located just east of the Bahamas today is starting to show some initial indications of trying to develop a surface center of rotation and we are starting a Lounge on Invest #TBD.
Conditions ahead include very warm water, sufficient atmospheric humidity and increasingly favorable upper-level winds. presently gives it 10% odds within 48 hours/40% odds within 5 days to become a tropical cyclone, and this could be conservative.
Track-wise, this feature, which has yet to be Invest tagged, is expected to cross Florida and enter the GOM over the weekend, where development/intensification should be most likely to occur. As some parts of the south have already received copious rains and are now primed for flooding, the precip alone could become problematic.
This feature has been Invest tagged 96L and the title has been updated accordingly.
Edited by MikeC (Sat Sep 12 2020 03:32 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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The trof located east of Florida has now been Invest tagged: 96L.
Model support for 96L is steadily rising, although should it cross Florida and quickly track northwest as several model runs suggest, it may not have the time necessary to overcome its impediments of relative rotundity and current lack of significant surface circulation.
Regardless of development, this disturbance is likely to bring copious rains to the southeast and south starting this weekend and into at least early next week.
As of 06Z Friday Sep 11, 96L was estimated to be centered near 25.3N and 77.5W with a fairly high minimum pressure of 1013mb. Maximum sustained winds are light at about 20 KTS.
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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Well at least the can track 19 by looking out the window.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
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Steve C
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Houston TX 77059
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"Well at least the can track 19 by looking out the window. "
Not ashamed to admit I lawled...
Edited by Steve C (Sat Sep 12 2020 01:02 AM)
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Getting some nice little gusts here in SW Seminole County.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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bob3d
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: Pasco County, Florida
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Call her Sally as of 2PM advisory.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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.55 inches of rain so far for the day in SW Seminole county. It's a bleak and overcast day. Typical for September. An occasional light gust occurres now and then.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 368
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Three blustery rounds here in south Plant City today. Not sure the rain total since I forgot to empty the gauge from this week until the third round. Calm overcast now.
There WAS a tornado warning around Avon Park about 5pm or so.
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3
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bob3d
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: Pasco County, Florida
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1.1 inches of rain so far with this storm... not that impressive so far, but Sally is not up to my latitude yet. We'll see tomorrow...
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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For the past several hours Sally appears to be riding NNW to NW just off the SW Florida west coast, well to the right of model guidance and forecast. If this trend continues through the evening a meaningful change in track and intensity forecast may be coming by morning.
The deepest convection is still displaced from the LLC, at this hour well to its southeast.
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COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.
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Prospero
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Gulfport, FL
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Here in Gulfport, FL, the winds are steady and strong with gusts into the 30s. We are a long ways from Sally right now. I've watched the winds on the Florida east coast all day and this storm has a big influence. Sally is no joke, no matter what the models show, she has some beef.
I'm enjoying being outside to feel the powerful wind, yet another Florida tropical system that we do get a kick out of. But the last couple hours I am actually doing some preparations and securing anything that might be vulnerable such as planters, wind chimes, umbrellas, decorations, and light lawn furniture.
Not expecting any real damage here and not worried about our windows yet, but so far this is more than we've felt here in Gulfport this 2020 season, including Isiais and Laura.
I do worry about what Sally might become for other areas, it just "feels" VERY powerful right now on this Saturday evening.
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Gulfport, Florida USA - Personal Weather Station:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLGULFP5
My Live Beach Cam on Clearwater Beach:
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Sally is going to be a flooding nightmare where it makes landfall regardless of how strong, flooding rains and surge won't be good combo here with that slow motion. Any strength gains just add on to that, but even if it came in just as strong as it is right now it still would likely be very memorable.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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18Z trending stronger again, and a bit east, now suggesting Gulfport, MS as the landfall point. It will be interesting to see if the 11pm track shifts at all, or they stick to what's there. Also, time for landfall keeps on getting later and later.
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kspkap
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
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Gee thanks, Mike! No news like bad news! I live in Long Beach, MS across the street from the Gulf. Gulfport is 3 miles east of me. Two blocks east US 90 floods over to where you can’t tell the road from the gulf! As I’ve wrote before this lot had a 32 foot storm surge with ! We purchased a slab lot. I think we are getting a 11 foot surge with Sally. US 90 in front may flood, but I think (hope) it doesn’t rise to cover our lot. Our elevation is higher here. The bottom floors of the casinos will flood. Roads off of US 90 will flood. Driving will be hazardous. Some cars will be floating. 
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Donna-1960, Charley-2004, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Issac-2012
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Yeah this isn't looking good for MS/AL it may stall, this morning's relocation and "explosion" on satellite along with the slow motion means a ton of rain/surge combo flooding since it'll take its sweet time moving. MS/AL and the Western Fl Panhandle in particular. It looks like recon found the center relocated under that massive burst this morning too.
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Kraig
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 49
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
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With the center reforming a bit to the east per the imagery and 11am discussion, I've got a feeling it will landfall closer to the MS/AL line and give Mobile area a terrible surge!
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2020 forecast 22/12/5 ; 28/12/5 as of 11/3
South FL Native: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17), Dorian ('19) and Isaias (20)
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Based on radar, satellite, lightning and recon, it appears that the center has definitely reformed to the northeast, and a period of Rapid Intensification is likely underway. Given the decreasing forward speed and potential for a near stall, there will now be time for the much improved internal structure to allow Sally to go Major, provided the forecast crawl/stall occurs over water.
The cyclone's portly size may yet be an impediment to epic RI, but significant deepening looks to be in the cards.
This TC has moderate to high potential to produce epic flooding, both surge and inland flooding, regardless. Those especially along the center and to the right of the center should prepare for what could be historic flooding, and take all official evac orders seriously. We caught a real break with where the storm surge occurred during Laura, but that doesn't mean we will catch the same break with Sally.
My max sustained SS intensity (a wind scale, only) is as follows
High-end Tropical Storm
(Current): 2%
Cat 1 Hurricane: 25%
Cat 2 Hurricane: 30%
Cat 3 Hurricane: 30%
Cat 4 Hurricane: 10%
Cat 5 Hurricane: 3%
Which works out to a 43% chance of going Major, overall.
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COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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I am scheduled to drive into Birmingham Wednesday evening for family medical testing at UAB on Thursday/Friday. What was once seemed to be not affected by Sally at all is slowly turning into a wait and see event. Even if not affected directly, could be a difficult drive through weather and people that have escaped from the coast. And a possibility the hospital needs to focus its attention elsewhere.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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It would appear that the LLC did not reform per say, but rather rotated about and with the vigorous mid-level center, to much better align with each other. It is not yet clear that this process is over, but at least for the moment, it seems that a track to the NW seems to have commenced, now from a location now to the northeast of where it was just a little while ago this morning.
Image credits: Philippe Papin and Levi Cowan on Twitter
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BayCoGator
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 27
Loc: NW Florida
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It looks like Sally has nearly stalled. A more northward jog coming or a resumption of the wnw motion?
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ontario, Canada
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New Orleans doppler has Sally going basically West with maybe a small tinge of North.
Not. Good because if it doesn't jog it is going to hit New Orleans/outlying low lands around New Orleans right at the worst part of the storm and it's going to keep going over those areas at a VERY reduced amount of speed which means a bunch of rain.
It's still strengthening on the shallow/hot waters in that part of the GOM so it could go to a H2 or some products have it going even up to an H3 very quickly although it would only be hitting with H2 storm surge which believe it or not is a blessing. That's the point where it's projected to hit land and slooowwwly curve N and then NW.
It goes without saying that if you're not within the N/O Enhanced Flood Protection System and living in outlying low lands, you need to get in your car and LEAVE.
It's at this point where I say the same thing I said for . There is nothing to be gained by staying in front of a strong hurricane other than nightmares. I doubt the wind damage will be extreme but the water is going to be deadly with the fact that this is moving so slowly and the fact that it's going to take it's sweet time recurving over some of the most vulnerable coast lands in the world other than places that are physically lower than the level of the ocean like places in the New Orleans Flood Protection System and Holland...isn't good.
PLEASE, if you are in low lying areas around New Orleans, it's time to leave or at leave move into the part of New Orleans they say are protected from flooding now. (untested).
Edited by Psyber (Mon Sep 14 2020 11:08 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Above: Mostly 09-15-20 0z runs of the major models (Global and Regional, plus several ensemble members)
09 15 0z model runs continue the trend of sniffing out the possibility that Sally is slowing down so much that she misses her exit out to sea and instead meanders or drifts back out over either the Gulf Stream near the Carolinas, Bahamas, crosses back into Florida, or even heads right back into the northeast GOM, over the course of five to as many as ten days.
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COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.
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BayCoGator
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 27
Loc: NW Florida
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Looks like Sally’s eye might be closing off again. Making a little run at some modest strengthening?
Edited by BayCoGator (Tue Sep 15 2020 06:10 PM)
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 208
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Probably no stronger and thankfully (I guess) it's been so slow and getting turned that it's not going to hit NO afterall.
The problem is the steering is all broken. Its in situation of moving so slowly that the potential landfall is about fifty miles wide which is freakish.
And the rainfall...it's going to be almost biblical because of how slow its moving and then like mort said, this frigging thing could dive into the Atlantic again at a depression or maybe even remnant, get some warm water, spin up and get pushed south again for another run at maybe Florida and if it's going south, unless it recurves in place, it's going to get pushed over the Florida Panhandle and POSSIBLY...very small percentage but it's POSSIBLE that this thing goes BACK into the GOM for ANOTHER shot.
This is truly a once in a lifetime hurricane. The behaviour, the bucking currents, the refusal to just spin and turn already. Man if this thing spins up and dives south again, geesh.
The freakish behavior generally occurs in larger hurricanes where they kind of make their own weather. Where they can just push their way through high-pressure troughs versus being forced to dry and then up and away.
And Paulette! 970mb/100MPH in water that isn't exactly a nice warm blanket and it's getting pushed back south into warmer waters. That cone could easily get pushed a bit more south and then back into the regular cycle of storms coming off Africa, across the ocean, into hot water and spin up. Talk about a freak of nature in it's own right.
98L isn't much of anything at the moment without much upper-level action but 99L sure is! They must be getting close to reclassifying 99L and giving us a Wilfred. With it only being mid September, the chances of us going into the greek Alphabet for naming must be pretty darn good.
Man, what a season!
Edited by Psyber (Tue Sep 15 2020 10:57 PM)
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Marc_in_NC
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Loc: North Carolina
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Last Sally update displaying on the main "Current Storms" page was 5PM 09/15...or is it just my system having this problem?
Marc in NC Quote:
Last Sally update displaying on the main "Current Storms" page was 5PM 09/15...or is it just my system having this problem?
Marc in NC
Marc your system is not in error. The Current Storms tab is having technical difficulties so disregard for now. The main page is updated manually however, so you can also check back there for updates throughout the night.
Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 16 2020 01:40 AM)
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Larry
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 30
Loc: Raleigh, NC
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Marc_in_NC , I see that too. However, in the Weather Statements for Selected Locations there is a 12 AM CDT speical update. Now 100 mph category 2
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
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There seems to be an issue with the feed from . It is behind updating on their main page, as well. Also, Teddy. Both delayed. We will continue to update the Main Page manually. - Ciel
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COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 208
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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It's a H2 in name only though. It's barely on the edge although the pressure drop the 968 is very confusing. It's like a child is playing with a toy...the toy being us. Every time it looks like we figure it out, it changes. Getting knocked back East should have chewed some life out of it but not really unless it was going to be a stronger H2? I don't know, the steering on this just doesn't make sense. Add to the fact that the North West of this storm is over land and it's getting stronger? It doesn't make conventional sense!
The speed though. So slowly moving. The rain and longer than normal abuse by the winds because of the speed are obviously the dangers.
It would be great to know when or if this thing ever plans to make landfall. Maybe we can ask the big guy to send it over Oregon.
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Marc_in_NC
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Loc: North Carolina
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Thank you Ciel and Larry.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
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What is the outlook for Central Florida as Sally turns east and feeder bands still feeding her from the south?
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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