Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - 25 Years Tracking StormsHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Area off the coast only 10% chance to develop If it develops it likely is short lived and goes out to sea. Season ends Nov 30th.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 30 (Zeta) , Major: 93 (Laura) Florida - Any: 780 (Michael) Major: 780 (Michael)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


General Discussion >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Teddy Lounge
      #101298 - Thu Sep 10 2020 05:45 AM


Above: East Atlantic Wave 09/10/20 0925z

An impressive wave is moving off the west coast of Africa today and has a high chance of development as conditions look favorable as it travels westward. (NHC 60%/90%).

This wave is not yet Invest tagged, but will be any time now, and we will update the title accordingly.

Model guidance has been uniformly bullish and steadfast on ramping this wave up into a strong tropical cyclone, and while yet very early, interests from the Greater Antilles to the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico may already want to begin keeping watch of this one, as this disturbance has some potential to become a long-track, high ACE, significant hurricane with multiple landfalls, given that it is starting further south than others we have been watching roll off Africa, and is set to enjoy peak season conditions for development.


Long-range model guidance 09/0z Runs:

ECMWF - Strong Tropical Storm or perhaps Cat 1 just off the north coast of central Cuba on 0z Sunday Sep 20 (end of run)

GFS - 967hPa hurricane crossing the Leeward Islands 0z Thursday Sep 14, 951hPa just south of Hispaniola on 0z Saturday Sep 19, growing in size 952hPa hurricane just south of western Cuba 12Z Tuesday Sep 22, large 954hPa hurricane approaching landfall somewhere around Ozello along the west coast of Florida by 0z Friday Sep 25.


This disturbance has been Invest tagged this evening (95L) and the title has been updated accordingly. On 9/12/20 95L was, at long last, designated a Tropical Cyclone ;-) TD20 and the title has been updated.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


Edited by cieldumort (Mon Sep 14 2020 05:43 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Vigorous E Atlantic Wave [Re: cieldumort]
      #101300 - Thu Sep 10 2020 01:26 PM


Above: Tropical Low Invest # TBD 09/10/20 1645z
Base image credit: Weathernerds.org

The vigorous wave that has just rolled off west Africa and is now centered over 100 miles southeast of the southernmost Cabo Verde islands is developing a robust low pressure center and a Tropical Depression appears to be in the offing.

As development appears to be occurring sooner rather than later, and may continue on an upward trajectory for some time, as was likely, it is possible that this cyclone begins to feel the tug north earlier than the recent runs of the ECMWF and GFS models predict, but this is far from certain. A subtle adjustment here or there in the relative strength or weakness of the ridge to its north could have all the influence as to far how west the cyclone ultimately gets.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 95L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101304 - Thu Sep 10 2020 08:33 PM

The lack of available data in this part of the Atlantic is frustrating, and today we have not had much in the way of scatterometer passes, either. However, what partial scat captures there have been, along with conventional satellite imagery (both visible and IR channels), strongly suggest that a closed surface low pressure does already exist with reasonably organized deep convection.

Knowing just how stacked and organized 95L already is will have an influence on model runs, and most recently, they have been understandably spreading out all over the map. In addition to there not being a good official handle on the cohesiveness of 95L, the next disturbance up is rapidly tracking right on its heels, with outflow at the surface and aloft starting to impinge on both 95's apparent surface circulation and upper-level outflow in its eastern semicircle.

Hopefully there will be more concrete details available by sunrise, and available for tomorrow's model runs.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 95L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101306 - Fri Sep 11 2020 11:22 AM

Friday morning and the apparent cyclone that existed with 95L yesterday is almost no more, with just a weak swirl left in its place as the westernmost lobe of the bipole wave, which was robust, has mingled with the eastern lobe, resulting in a more elongated and loose circulation. A prudent move of the NHC not to pull the trigger Thursday, as it would have been one of those calls requiring apologetic sounding updates the very next day.

With systems this far out and so much ocean left to cover, the need to PTC a system isn't there, but it could in theory help models run better, cleaner. Having an Invest number also helps, and the disturbance did get that last night.

There's been an appreciable shift away from the US by models today, as they have continued to spread out like a fan. With multiple systems existing and forecast to form in the central Atlantic over the next few days, the region is in a bit of chaotic flux. Combined with not having much of a 'center' to lock on to now, models will likely struggle with 95L for a while. The general forward motion is west for the time being, and it goes without saying that the further west 95L gets the more the Antilles remain a potential hit.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 2 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., Atricks, danielw, Clark, Christine H, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort, Jackie M, Wigeon, Hank Buck 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 1774

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center