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General Discussion >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 208
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: BayCoGator]
      #101330 - Mon Sep 14 2020 07:56 PM

New Orleans doppler has Sally going basically West with maybe a small tinge of North.

Not. Good because if it doesn't jog it is going to hit New Orleans/outlying low lands around New Orleans right at the worst part of the storm and it's going to keep going over those areas at a VERY reduced amount of speed which means a bunch of rain.

It's still strengthening on the shallow/hot waters in that part of the GOM so it could go to a H2 or some products have it going even up to an H3 very quickly although it would only be hitting with H2 storm surge which believe it or not is a blessing. That's the point where it's projected to hit land and slooowwwly curve N and then NW.

It goes without saying that if you're not within the N/O Enhanced Flood Protection System and living in outlying low lands, you need to get in your car and LEAVE.

It's at this point where I say the same thing I said for Katrina. There is nothing to be gained by staying in front of a strong hurricane other than nightmares. I doubt the wind damage will be extreme but the water is going to be deadly with the fact that this is moving so slowly and the fact that it's going to take it's sweet time recurving over some of the most vulnerable coast lands in the world other than places that are physically lower than the level of the ocean like places in the New Orleans Flood Protection System and Holland...isn't good.

PLEASE, if you are in low lying areas around New Orleans, it's time to leave or at leave move into the part of New Orleans they say are protected from flooding now. (untested).

Edited by Psyber (Mon Sep 14 2020 11:08 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101332 - Tue Sep 15 2020 03:15 AM


Above: Mostly 09-15-20 0z runs of the major models (Global and Regional, plus several ensemble members)

09 15 0z model runs continue the trend of sniffing out the possibility that Sally is slowing down so much that she misses her exit out to sea and instead meanders or drifts back out over either the Gulf Stream near the Carolinas, Bahamas, crosses back into Florida, or even heads right back into the northeast GOM, over the course of five to as many as ten days.

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BayCoGator
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 27
Loc: NW Florida
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101339 - Tue Sep 15 2020 06:01 PM

Looks like Sally’s eye might be closing off again. Making a little run at some modest strengthening?

Edited by BayCoGator (Tue Sep 15 2020 06:10 PM)


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 208
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: BayCoGator]
      #101343 - Tue Sep 15 2020 10:50 PM

Probably no stronger and thankfully (I guess) it's been so slow and getting turned that it's not going to hit NO afterall.

The problem is the steering is all broken. Its in situation of moving so slowly that the potential landfall is about fifty miles wide which is freakish.

And the rainfall...it's going to be almost biblical because of how slow its moving and then like mort said, this frigging thing could dive into the Atlantic again at a depression or maybe even remnant, get some warm water, spin up and get pushed south again for another run at maybe Florida and if it's going south, unless it recurves in place, it's going to get pushed over the Florida Panhandle and POSSIBLY...very small percentage but it's POSSIBLE that this thing goes BACK into the GOM for ANOTHER shot.

This is truly a once in a lifetime hurricane. The behaviour, the bucking currents, the refusal to just spin and turn already. Man if this thing spins up and dives south again, geesh.

The freakish behavior generally occurs in larger hurricanes where they kind of make their own weather. Where they can just push their way through high-pressure troughs versus being forced to dry and then up and away.

And Paulette! 970mb/100MPH in water that isn't exactly a nice warm blanket and it's getting pushed back south into warmer waters. That cone could easily get pushed a bit more south and then back into the regular cycle of storms coming off Africa, across the ocean, into hot water and spin up. Talk about a freak of nature in it's own right.

98L isn't much of anything at the moment without much upper-level action but 99L sure is! They must be getting close to reclassifying 99L and giving us a Wilfred. With it only being mid September, the chances of us going into the greek Alphabet for naming must be pretty darn good.

Man, what a season!

Edited by Psyber (Tue Sep 15 2020 10:57 PM)


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Marc_in_NC
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Loc: North Carolina
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #101346 - Wed Sep 16 2020 12:52 AM

Last Sally update displaying on the main "Current Storms" page was 5PM 09/15...or is it just my system having this problem?
Marc in NC
Quote:

Last Sally update displaying on the main "Current Storms" page was 5PM 09/15...or is it just my system having this problem?
Marc in NC



Marc your system is not in error. The Current Storms tab is having technical difficulties so disregard for now. The main page is updated manually however, so you can also check back there for updates throughout the night.

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 16 2020 01:40 AM)


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Larry
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 30
Loc: Raleigh, NC
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: Marc_in_NC]
      #101347 - Wed Sep 16 2020 01:13 AM

Marc_in_NC , I see that too. However, in the Weather Statements for Selected Locations there is a 12 AM CDT speical update. Now 100 mph category 2

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: Larry]
      #101350 - Wed Sep 16 2020 02:32 AM

There seems to be an issue with the feed from NHC. It is behind updating on their main page, as well. Also, Teddy. Both delayed. We will continue to update the Main Page manually. - Ciel

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COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 208
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: Larry]
      #101351 - Wed Sep 16 2020 02:40 AM

It's a H2 in name only though. It's barely on the edge although the pressure drop the 968 is very confusing. It's like a child is playing with a toy...the toy being us. Every time it looks like we figure it out, it changes. Getting knocked back East should have chewed some life out of it but not really unless it was going to be a stronger H2? I don't know, the steering on this just doesn't make sense. Add to the fact that the North West of this storm is over land and it's getting stronger? It doesn't make conventional sense!

The speed though. So slowly moving. The rain and longer than normal abuse by the winds because of the speed are obviously the dangers.

It would be great to know when or if this thing ever plans to make landfall. Maybe we can ask the big guy to send it over Oregon.


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Marc_in_NC
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Loc: North Carolina
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #101353 - Wed Sep 16 2020 03:01 AM

Thank you Ciel and Larry.

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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: Marc_in_NC]
      #101355 - Wed Sep 16 2020 05:54 AM

What is the outlook for Central Florida as Sally turns east and feeder bands still feeding her from the south?

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