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General Discussion >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 174
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Early season Nor'easter
      #101359 - Thu Sep 17 2020 11:39 AM

The pressure gradient (near 70mb!!) between the high pressure ridge building along the eastern seaboard and Hurricane Teddy re-curving near Bermuda early next week will combine to produce a "Nor'easter-cane" coastal erosion event with large swell off Florida's east coast (north of the Cape) in excess of 20' combined with several days of 20-30 mph northeast winds:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...91706&fh=48
The beach in front of the continuous sea wall where near the Sun Glow pier in Daytona Beach Shores is absent of any dune system, and it will be extremely vulnerable during this event as it did not recover much sand following Dorian and last fall/winter's nor'easters.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 174
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Early season Nor'easter [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101363 - Fri Sep 18 2020 04:42 PM

round 2 of strong onshore wind along Florida's east coast in early October from gradient between Gamma coming up from the south and strong high pressure?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020091812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_64.png

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 174
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Early season Nor'easter [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101365 - Fri Sep 18 2020 10:07 PM

NWS Melbourne discussion:
Confidence increasing for a significant beach erosion and coastal flood event that will begin to unfold into Saturday night and continue through the weekend and early next week. High astronomical tides, large swells from distant Hurricane Teddy, and building wind waves from NE surge behind the front will all combine to produce high seas, dangerous surf, and the potential for moderate to major beach erosion and coastal flooding due to the long duration of the large swells. A Rip Current Risk has been extended through early next week, and a Coastal Flood Watch has
been issued for the coastal counties.
Sun-Wed...Very hazardous marine conditions greet this period as the long term marine event continues, with NERLY winds 20-25 kts and very gusty. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in place across the coastal waters through at least Tuesday evening, and consideration for a Gale Watch/Warning for portions of this period may be needed for potential of frequent gusts to around 35 mph. The pressure gradient gradually relaxes ever so slightly during the day on Mon- Tue remaining at or above 15 kts during this time, then only beginning to further decrease Tue night into Wed with E-ENE winds 10-15 kts. Seas remain very high, initially, at 13- 17 ft over the Gulf Stream and 10-14 ft near shore. A
slow/gradual subsiding of seas begins Mon night and by late day Wed, seas may fall to 9-10 ft Gulf Stream and 6-9 ft near shore, so a continuation of hazardous boating conditions for small craft during this entire period.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 174
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Early season Nor'easter [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101366 - Sun Sep 20 2020 12:44 PM

24-hr (noon to noon) rain total for my CoCoRaHS station # FL-VL-42 in Daytona Beach Shores is 5.28". Sustained wind at 10:30 am in this morning's heaviest shower was NE 30 mph, gusting to gale force.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 174
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Early season Nor'easter [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101367 - Sun Sep 20 2020 12:49 PM

Last several wind-driven high tide cycles were 2-2.5' above normal high level, with large breaking surf running water and debris up the closed vehicle ramp at the end of my street. Weather Channel personnel deployed in the Galveston Bay area of Texas (anticipating Beta) where the weather is currently beautiful could get some good bad weather footage if they were here in Daytona Beach.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 174
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Early season Nor'easter [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101368 - Sun Sep 20 2020 12:54 PM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020

A small and weak low pressure system, located near a frontal boundary just off the coast of east-central Florida, is producing a small area of thunderstorms mainly offshore the coast. The low is expected to move inland over Florida or dissipate later today, and significant development is not anticipated. For more information on this system, please see local products and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from 32N70W to a 1012 mb low near 29N79W to 28N81W. To the north of the low and behind the cold front N and NE gales will prevail through early Mon morning. This low is producing a small area of thunderstorms near the central Florida coast, and will likely move inland later today. Significant development of this low is not anticipated. Seas are currently 12-18 ft in this area and are forecast to build to 15-22 ft by tonight.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 174
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Early season Nor'easter [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101369 - Mon Sep 21 2020 11:49 AM

Yesterday's ocean high tides were 3-3.5' above normal- higher than Dorian's and the highest since Hurricane Irma. Lots of 4x4 wooden posts that the county uses to mark beach parking and hold trash cans deposited on the wrack line up the ramps, along with misc boardwalk planks. The Halifax River (ICWW) tides were 2-3' above normal given the ongoing runoff from creeks and municipal drainage basins from the heavy (6-9 inch) 24-hr rainfall. Heading down to the Dunlawton vehicle ramp to see how high this morning's high tide gets.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1120 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

MARINE...
Gale warning continues for the Atlantic waters for frequent gusts to Gale Force. Sustained NE winds should remain 25 to 30 knots. Seas are fully arisen 14-17 ft over the open ATLC/Gulf Stream with breaking waves of 8-12 ft in the surf zone. Expect the Gale Warning will revert to a Small Craft Advisory tonight as gradient begins to relax.

Highest water levels of this event are expected with the upcoming high tide around Noon. Strong NE winds and incoming long period swells from distant Hurricane Teddy will produce high surf with additional beach erosion and minor coastal flooding. Water levels on the intracoastal waters will also rise with localized flooding adjacent to the river/lagoon.

High Tides Today Tonight Tue

Daytona Bch 1153 AM 1211 AM 1249 PM
Sebastian Inlt 1146 AM 1158 PM 1243 PM
Fort Pierce 1203 PM 1215 AM 100 PM

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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