cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
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A tropical wave starting to interact with a mostly stationary front is producing vigorous showers and thunderstorms in the central to western Caribbean, and this feature has increasing odds of developing by the end of the week.
This disturbance has not yet been Invest tagged, but will likely soon be. Interests in the western and northwestern Caribbean may want to begin paying close attention, as even if tropical cyclone development does not occur before the end of the week, very heavy and flooding rains are almost a certainty, either way. Additional details and images to come.
At 7PM CDT Oct 2, TD25 has been named: Gamma
Edited by cieldumort (Fri Oct 02 2020 09:12 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Invest 91L looking very much like it is just about a Tropical Storm tonight.
Image credit: Weathernerds.org
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COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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As of 11AM, 10/2, it is officially TD 25. It does not appear to be a threat to at the moment. Forecast to become TS Gamma by tomorrow.
Since we are now into October/November, this is the prime region for storm development.
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Michael
WU PWS
2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
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This is forecast to be over me tomorrow morning. Will be up all night to make sure it does not rapidly intensify.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Good luck. Hopefully, it will remain a weak storm.
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Michael
WU PWS
2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
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Up to 65 mph now,not weak.Flooding bad.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 174
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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GFS 12Z has a strong hurricane spinning up in the Caribbean, crossing Cuba, then impacting Florida peninsula in 2 weeks: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_60.png
Each of the last 3 model runs has been further west and stronger. 12Z was a bit slower bringing the system out of the Caribbean, consequently more time over warm/deep seawater allows pressure to bottom out around 941mb prior to Cuban landfall. While 2 weeks out is a hard sale for any model to pin on, the 12Z and the relative run to run consistency
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 174
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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18z still a strong system, but track well east of Florida:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_54.png
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 174
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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06z : https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_54.png
a strong (major?) hurricane tracking through the central Bahamas...
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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