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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 346
Loc: Southeast, FL
Western Caribbean october 20th-30th
      #101402 - Thu Oct 15 2020 01:50 PM

Starting a thread, because of what the GFS has been touting about.
At the beginning of the week GFS suggested a sizable system approaching
the florida peninsula from the south, on the 23rd with no other models showing a
closed low.
Either they did not see it or the run just did not go out far enough, as expected there
is flip flop going on from run to run, east/west as the week progressed the Euro, CMC,
caught on to the idea of low pressure forming in the western Carribbean, but nowhere as
strong as the GFS and west of the GFS, also the GFS has slowed down it progress.
Today we added the icon to the group, showing low pressure getting into the gulf of mexico.
The idea is the southern branch of the tropical wave will get into the western Caribbean then mix
with central america gyre currently there, and spark off the system, the sheared northern branch should fuel
the development of a large low pressure system in the central atlantic.
There are big differences in the models.
(1) The central atlantic low, how strong it gets and how far west it makes it. The idea it will aid in
breaking down the ridge over the southwest atlantic. The stronger and further west it gets the less chance
the continental US will see of this.
The GFS started off with a weaker low east but now has it stronger and further west.
Euro and CMC show the low , Euro does not break down the ridge as quickly as the GFS, and maintains
a small ridge longer. the CMC shows a weaker system over all. and also maintains a small ridge in the Atlantic.
Aslo there is very dry patch of air close to the central atlantic low which may hamper it development, something
to look at.

(2) A trough forcast to move down out of the plains, on the 25th. The GFS shows a a stronger central atlantic low and quickly breaks down the ridge allowing the trough to move in swift and sharply, pulling the Caribbean system out with it.
The Euro and CMC Maintain a ridge, and actually flatten it out, the Euro showing 1020 over eastern US on the 25th, with weak system near the yucatan, the CMC has weaker ridge , also showing the trough flattening out, and a Hurricane south of central cuba moving west. The icon also shows a ridge and the storm in the central gulf.
Two very stark contrasts GFS with sharp trough, and the other two with high pressure in the same area.
The Euro and CMC would suggest at the least wind and rain for someone in the US.
GFS currently showing sunny sky's.

Deffinetly gonna watch, as i do believe with the kind of year we have had, a system should come north out of the western caribbean, also Delta was weak, to very small when it got going in the western Caribbean. so i suspect the water is ample warm enough to support a system.
Also if you noticed most all systems ended up south and west of the original projected path due stubborn ridging this year.
Towards the end of all the runs, the central atlantic low is forcast to break the ridge , which should keep this a eastern Gulf to central bahamas event.

Edited by Robert (Thu Oct 15 2020 04:03 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4359
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Western Caribbean october 20th-30th [Re: Robert]
      #101405 - Sun Oct 18 2020 11:44 AM

This appears to be a ghost storm, or being incorrectly handled by the GFS, the formation date keeps getting pushed back, over and over, which typically is a sign of it, not saying it won't happen, but I suspect nothing much will come of this area. However the area over the Bahamas now, may do something.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 991
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Western Caribbean october 20th-30th [Re: MikeC]
      #101406 - Mon Oct 19 2020 09:53 AM

I have my eye on the area over the Bahamas, which today is affecting soutern florida with some healthy rain and some indication of counter clockwise motion.

--------------------
doug


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Keith B
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 47
Loc: FL, Orange County
Re: Western Caribbean october 20th-30th [Re: doug]
      #101412 - Fri Oct 23 2020 05:38 PM

Well, you were not too far off back then. I just noticed this post. I will add that Eric Webb said, oops.

Eric Webb (@webberweather) tweeted at 6:11 AM on Fri, Oct 23, 2020:
I certainly remember just several days ago, the GFS was being ridiculed on for producing “fake” TCs in the western Caribbean in the extended range when it dropped development of this system.

Oops. #95L
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--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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