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General Discussion >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Eta Lounge
      #101424 - Fri Oct 30 2020 02:35 AM


Above: 96L IR 10/30/20 0610z

An area of disturbed weather presently in the eastern Caribbean is expected to become our next Tropical Cyclone, and has just been Invest tagged: 96L. As the odds for development look strong, and we are continuing the pattern of late-season systems forming closer to home during this hyperactive season, we are starting a Lounge on 96L now.

Edited by MikeC (Sat Oct 31 2020 11:24 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4359
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101425 - Sat Oct 31 2020 11:25 PM

Eta is interesting in that there are split models, one pushing southwest, and another curving it back to the northeast, in these situations sometimes neither is correct, so we'll have to watch this one.

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Keith B
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 47
Loc: FL, Orange County
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101426 - Sun Nov 01 2020 06:11 AM

I just read this from MLB AFD. Interesting forecast info, pending verification.

11/1 @ 0515
Regarding the Tropics, the 00Z GFS and ECMWF models are coming
into better agreement, now both showing Tropical Storm Eta making
landfall over central America in about 72 hours. And now both
the operational GFS and ECMWF runs bring the remnants of "Eta"
north of Honduras, back over the far western Caribbean with
(re)strengthening. Several GFS ensemble members bring this low
pressure N/NE across Cuba next weekend as does the operational
ECMWF now, though the latter is slower. Anyway, it is too early
to speculate what impacts this may have for EC FL but it serves as
a reminder that Hurricane season continues until Nov 30.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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Owlguin
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
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Re: Eta Lounge [Re: Keith B]
      #101427 - Sun Nov 01 2020 09:00 AM

Yes, the models this morning seem to be more in agreement that Eta will emerge from Honduras and head north. I would assume it will be very difficult to forecast this due to the land interaction.

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Keith B
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 47
Loc: FL, Orange County
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #101428 - Sun Nov 01 2020 02:22 PM

NHC discussion at 11a today. Seems that both MLB and NHC are seeing the same thing. In a few days we shall see.

There is increased uncertainty in the track forecast post-landfall, with a
range of plausible outcomes. While much of the guidance suggests Eta
will spin down and weaken over Central America or possibly cross
into the eastern Pacific, some model solutions indicate the
potential for Eta or its remnants to re-emerge over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea at or beyond day 5. For now, the official NHC forecast
remains close to the previous one and the corrected consensus aid
HCCA, which keeps the cyclone inland over Central America through
day 5.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Eta Lounge [Re: Keith B]
      #101442 - Tue Nov 03 2020 02:13 PM

Ok models are interesting for Florida with ETA, with the GFS, CMC, and HWRF Florida may see something late this weekend, (HWRF showing a cat 2 east of Florida riding near the coast, where GFS has a tropical storm moving through the middle of the state. CMC has it spiraling in or near the state Mon-late next Wednesday.

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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 408
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101443 - Tue Nov 03 2020 05:29 PM

After Wilma I tend to watch storms that form in this area more closely. The timing with cold fronts in late Oct / early Nov means the pattern can change quickly. Normally I would be thankful for a little extra rain coming into the dry season, but here in SFL we got plenty wet last week. We had like 3 straight days of flood advisories.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Kraig
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 49
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Re: Eta Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101444 - Tue Nov 03 2020 10:11 PM

SE Florida is very wet, and most models are showing 6" over this coming weekend. The recent cold front will be pushed north as a warm front by Eta or Theta, depending on what it's named. Serious flooding will occur just with this event, let alone if it's followed up early next week by a landfalling system!

--------------------
2020 forecast 22/12/5 ; 28/12/5 as of 11/3

South FL Native: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17), Dorian ('19) and Isaias (20)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #101445 - Wed Nov 04 2020 07:48 AM

Several models are indicating a system meandering over Florida for several days. The NHC track and cone place Eta near south Florida early Monday morning. All of Florida needs to keep an eye on this as the models and forecasts are going to change and refine over the next week.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 991
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #101446 - Wed Nov 04 2020 08:35 AM

tropical tidbits has a thorough presentation of the various things that may happen in a few days. My take away is some form of storm could develop but the surrounding environment is not going to be conducive for typical tropical formation..Not that it is not to be taken seriously...but a system with atipical intereferences

--------------------
doug


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: doug]
      #101447 - Fri Nov 06 2020 09:40 PM

The 18Z runs of the GFS, HMON, and HWRF models all show Eta crossing South Florida east to west and running northward up the Florida Gulf Coast. The 18Z NAVGEM has it doing a loop just west of Tampa Bay before crossing north of Tampa Bay. Waiting to see if there is any track adjustment from NHC at 10PM.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 408
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #101448 - Sat Nov 07 2020 10:52 AM

Its a pretty sloppy environment, lots of shear, a weak front pushing thru, etc... but Eta appears to be firing up storms around its core. Recon in the storm now finding 55 kt (63 mph) winds so its gaining some power as predicted.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101449 - Sat Nov 07 2020 08:05 PM

Wow! The 11/7 18Z GFS has lost its mind! The HMON and HWRF still indicating landfall in the Tampa Bay region.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 252
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #101450 - Sat Nov 07 2020 08:36 PM

Not the first time I've done some yard prep this year here in Gulfport, FL, but certainly the first time it might be necessary!

Hope it does not fire up in the Gulf west of here this week and become a surprise hurricane and head this way. We likely won't be ready for that.

Eta is a persistent storm.

--------------------
Gulfport, Florida USA - Personal Weather Station:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLGULFP5
My Live Beach Cam on Clearwater Beach:
https://beachresortcondos.com/clearwater-beach-live-webcam.html


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 408
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #101451 - Sat Nov 07 2020 08:40 PM

Looks like this is going to be a slow moving storm that just dumps plenty of rain across all of south FL along with tropical storm forces winds with some near hurricane gusts from mid-day tomorrow thru Tuesday. Normally the weather pre-storm is clear due the outflow high pressure but not this time. Its already been pretty darn breezy all day with several quick moving outer band like rain storms. The surrounding weather pattern / general environment has made this feel like a much bigger or closer storm then it really is.

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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 252
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101452 - Sat Nov 07 2020 08:47 PM

I think the worst storm surge in the Tampa Bay area in my lifetime was Hurricane Agnes in 1972 when I was 11 years old. The wind was impressive to a kid (not a major impact), but the waves breaking in our driveway when we woke up in the Pink Streets of St. Pete was shocking!

I don't remember it being a direct hit, but it sat out in the Gulf for a while piling up the water.

--------------------
Gulfport, Florida USA - Personal Weather Station:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLGULFP5
My Live Beach Cam on Clearwater Beach:
https://beachresortcondos.com/clearwater-beach-live-webcam.html


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 901
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Re: Eta Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101453 - Sat Nov 07 2020 09:42 PM

I’ve been thinking that this could be another Elena, 1984 event with a storm just hanging off the coast for an extended time.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 252
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #101454 - Sat Nov 07 2020 10:12 PM

Quote:

I’ve been thinking that this could be another Elena, 1984 event with a storm just hanging off the coast for an extended time.



Another TS Debbie around here would be a big pain and costly.

--------------------
Gulfport, Florida USA - Personal Weather Station:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLGULFP5
My Live Beach Cam on Clearwater Beach:
https://beachresortcondos.com/clearwater-beach-live-webcam.html


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 368
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #101455 - Sat Nov 07 2020 11:08 PM

I remember Elena quite well. We were living in Lake Worth but came up to my folks cabin in Lake Wales for that weekend. It sure looked like it might work its way back to the east but it just stalled there in the Gulf....Very odd storm.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 991
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #101457 - Sun Nov 08 2020 06:01 AM

If I recall correctly Elena caused considerable flooding in Sarasota.
Considerable rain fall seems to be the biggest threat from what is expected from ETA

--------------------
doug


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