Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - 25 Years Tracking StormsHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Area off the coast only 10% chance to develop If it develops it likely is short lived and goes out to sea. Season ends Nov 30th.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 29 (Zeta) , Major: 92 (Laura) Florida - Any: 778 (Michael) Major: 778 (Michael)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


General Discussion >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | >> (show all)
JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 408
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: doug]
      #101458 - Sun Nov 08 2020 09:32 AM

Watching the IR loop Eta blew up last night but fizzled out this AM. The shear, dry air, lack of warm water combination blew all the thunderstorm towers away. Once Eta clears Cuba I wonder how quickly it can get reorganized.

All I can say for now is despite the center being over 300 miles away from me we are already experiencing very tropical weather with NE winds at 10, gusting to 30 MPH with constant light rain plus the occasional strong downpours. We have gotten 3.5" of rain already if you count yesterday. The power just flickered twice.

The most rain I experienced with George in '98 - maybe it was just the neighborhood I was living in at the time or that my roof had so many leaks but it was a wet one for me.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: doug]
      #101460 - Sun Nov 08 2020 01:11 PM

Elena caused significant beach damage and erosion here in Pinellas County. It was like a three day thunderstorm here at my house. At any rate, Eta is going to cause prolonged foul weather.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 368
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #101461 - Sun Nov 08 2020 01:19 PM

As a teacher, I am wondering what it might mean for school buses in Hillsborough County. We do have Wednesday off for Veteran's day. I don't think they will run buses in TS force winds....haven't seen any mention from the school district yet.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 62
Loc: Vero Beach, FL
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #101462 - Sun Nov 08 2020 03:23 PM

Eta is more likely to impact Hillsborough late in the week or next weekend. The storm is jogging more west making this a longer duration event. The County will be re-evaluating again tomorrow but so far, there is no immediate threat. Wednesday may not be a great weather day but it is not expected to be terrible either.
Rain chances and winds will start to pick up beginning Thursday and into the weekend based on the current NHC forecast.

--------------------
Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: Sheeper]
      #101463 - Sun Nov 08 2020 06:00 PM

Sandwich RGB shows a huge CoC. I have not seen this before. Does this mean it is not truly Topical in structure?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 408
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #101464 - Sun Nov 08 2020 06:44 PM

Based on radar Eta is moving more W then NW. The Keyes are going get all the wind but rain is north in Broward and WPB. Got 6” of rain in my neighborhood, it’s really coming down out there.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rob Moser
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Loc: Naples,FL & Iowa
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101465 - Sun Nov 08 2020 07:03 PM

We have had little heavy rain in Naples/Golden Gate area. Occasional wind bursts from NE.
Very worried as our roofs are being replaced in our coach home neighborhood (insurance co settled after 3 yrs) and ours only has one layer of polyflex. Half of 29 bldgs have no tile but others at least have 2 layers of polyflex plus tar'd seams..


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 252
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #101466 - Sun Nov 08 2020 07:13 PM

Quote:

As a teacher, I am wondering what it might mean for school buses in Hillsborough County. We do have Wednesday off for Veteran's day. I don't think they will run buses in TS force winds....haven't seen any mention from the school district yet.



Pinellas Schools called my wife, a teacher, and tomorrow is on as normal. However they will be monitoring conditions.

We are looking at Thursday and Friday ourselves, planning to hunker down as needed. Of course the County wants teachers to teach remotely if the schools are closed. As if any students will be interested in doing school on a "snow day". LOL

--------------------
Gulfport, Florida USA - Personal Weather Station:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLGULFP5
My Live Beach Cam on Clearwater Beach:
https://beachresortcondos.com/clearwater-beach-live-webcam.html


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 408
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101467 - Sun Nov 08 2020 09:11 PM

The core is becoming more rain wrapped and the band in my area (center to northern Broward) is particularly nasty with a special marine warning due to 50 mph winds and likely water spouts embedded in heavy rain. The center looks to go over Marathon.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 408
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101468 - Sun Nov 08 2020 10:36 PM

Hard to find the true center but looks to make landfall in Lower Matecumbe Key as its drifted slightly north.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101470 - Mon Nov 09 2020 07:42 PM

Satellite imagery is indicating that the thunderstorm activity is concentrating near the center tonight as was mentioned in the 4 PM NHC discussion. Eta’s wind field has contracted as well. The next 3 - 5 days will decide which model scenario plays out. Models are still very divergent from 72 hours out.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 128
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #101473 - Tue Nov 10 2020 07:37 PM

What a difference a day makes. Models shifted east. Eta heading just east of north and strengthening. And we are officially under a tropical storm watch. Wouldn't surprise me to see upgrade to warnings next full advisory. I call this the drunk storm.LOL. Anyway I hope people are watching or they are going to get caught by surprise. Even a tropical storm can be damaging. 2020 Sheesh will it never end.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 128
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: dolfinatic]
      #101474 - Tue Nov 10 2020 07:50 PM

Well models continue to shift east now Tampa bay area looking at getting the worst weather if models hold true. Virtually all models are east of NHC track. I would think another shift in track coming.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: dolfinatic]
      #101475 - Tue Nov 10 2020 09:23 PM

If I’m not mistaken, radar and satellite seem to indicate that Eta is east of the official track now and moving more northeastward than projected. Waiting for the 10 PM advisory. The 18Z models indicate a more eastward track and a landfall between Weeki Wachee and north of Cedar Key after brushing near Pinellas County. I expect Tropical Storm warnings at 10 PM.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 131
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #101476 - Tue Nov 10 2020 10:58 PM

Appreciate the updates. I popped in here to check because our wind gusts have noticeably increased in the past hour (Desoto County). Radar looks like it’s heading NE rather than NW? I’m in a camper temporarily due to home renovations, it’s vital that I have solid info as quickly as it’s available so I can get out if need be.

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: Bev]
      #101477 - Wed Nov 11 2020 04:40 AM

NHC track has shifted east. I would expect Seminole County to get some winds and quite a bit of rain. Take care north of Tampa along the Gulf Coast.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 252
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #101478 - Wed Nov 11 2020 05:07 AM

We've been very lucky all season in Pinellas County, but we may get hit this time.

--------------------
Gulfport, Florida USA - Personal Weather Station:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLGULFP5
My Live Beach Cam on Clearwater Beach:
https://beachresortcondos.com/clearwater-beach-live-webcam.html


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
bob3d
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: Pasco County, Florida
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101479 - Wed Nov 11 2020 08:02 AM

Upgraded to Hurricane just before 8AM EST.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve P
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Loc: Pinellas County, Fl
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: bob3d]
      #101480 - Wed Nov 11 2020 09:34 AM

I work for Pinellas County Schools and just got a robo call from them. They are going to have an early release of students today.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 252
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Eta Lounge [Re: Steve P]
      #101481 - Wed Nov 11 2020 09:57 AM

PINELLAS COUNTY

In an abundance of caution, ALL Pinellas County Schools will have early dismissal today, Wednesday, Nov. 11 and will be closed tomorrow, Nov. 12. Today’s dismissal times: High Schools: 10:00 a.m. Elementary Schools: 11:00 a.m. Middle Schools: 12 noon

--------------------
Gulfport, Florida USA - Personal Weather Station:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLGULFP5
My Live Beach Cam on Clearwater Beach:
https://beachresortcondos.com/clearwater-beach-live-webcam.html


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 8 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., Atricks, danielw, Clark, Christine H, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort, Jackie M, Wigeon, Hank Buck 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 8803

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center