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General Discussion >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Zeta Lounge
      #101408 - Fri Oct 23 2020 01:42 AM


Above: Caribbean Disturbance Invest TBD IR 10-23-20 0525z Image credit: Weathernerds.org



Above: ASCAT-C 10-23-20 0514z

A long-advertised trof of low pressure we have been watching in the Caribbean has developed a well-defined center of circulation today, and as showers and a few thunderstorms are starting to organize in association with it, we are starting a Forecast Lounge on this disturbance, which is not yet Invest tagged.

NHC has held development odds within five days generally in the 20% to 30% range, and that is almost surely going to go up by morning. While early model runs have suggested that Invest TBD heads out to sea, it has some land mass interaction ahead regardless of development, and interests in and around Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas or possibly even northwest into the Gulf of Mexico - should a few more recent runs turn out to be correct, may want to pay closer attention as a Tropical Cyclone could be forming Friday or over the weekend, and traversing one or more locations in these areas.

As of 10/23 2AM CDT this disturbance has been Invest tagged, 95L, and the title has been updated accordingly. 95L has become the twenty-eighth Tropical Cyclone of the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season as of 10/24 and the title has been updated accordingly.
Ciel

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COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


Edited by cieldumort (Sun Oct 25 2020 04:40 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Caribbean Disturbance [Re: cieldumort]
      #101409 - Fri Oct 23 2020 03:32 AM

This disturbance is now Invest 95L and higher quality model runs should be coming within the next 24 hours or so. In addition, NHC will likely have recon fly in by Saturday.

In the meantime, here are a couple of the runs from globals on 23/0z

GFS: Keeps 95L very weak - maybe a TD at best, and washes it out over the Yucatan and/or SW Gulf.

GFS-P: Strong Low or even weak TS by Sunday just south of Cuba, drifts west then northwest into the GOM by midweek and absorbed by midlatitude trof.

CMC: Strong Low or TD by Sunday drifting northwest into NW Caribbean and crossing the Yucatan on Monday... heads towards deep south Texas and makes some kind of "landfall: there as an inverted troff or TD.

EURO: Looks like a weak TD over the weekend in the NW Caribbean that washes out early next week in the GOM.

ICON: TD/TS meanders in N Central Caribbean over the remainder of the week and weekend, tracking NW across extreme western Cuba overnight Monday as an intensifying Tropical Storm - deepens and takes a turn more northerly into a landfall as a strong Cat 1/2 hurricane around Apalachee Bay or so on Wednesday.

The overall theme of the latest model runs is developing the system earlier than originally advertised, and thus drawing it up into the Gulf rather than sending it across Cuba and out to sea. As it appears to be a little better developed already, all of the above sans ICON may also be underselling its potential for intensification.

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COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 95L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101411 - Fri Oct 23 2020 05:29 PM



Above: 95L Visible 10-23-20 2015z Base image credit: Weathernerds.org

Invest 95L could be undergoing a center reformation today, with the old surface center giving way to a new location more aligned within the deepest convection and circulation aloft. If confirmed, we could be looking at the system getting a name sooner rather than later.

Regardless, Watches and Warnings being issued soon either way at a minimum for TWENTY-EIGHT as a PTC at a minimum seems likely.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Zeta Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101419 - Wed Oct 28 2020 03:31 AM

Zeta has redeveloped a solid inner core and models are picking up on trends that suggest the hurricane may make a run for some respectable intensification up to and possibly into landfall.

Forecasts calling for 85MPH max and then weakening into landfall could turn out to be extremely conservative, even though that was above model consensus just a day ago. I would not be shocked to see Zeta come in much stronger rather than weaker.

10//28/0Z Runs


HWRF - Landfall in Central to SE Louisiana Wednesday night at something about 971mb borderline Cat 1/2.

HMON - Landfall in Central to SE Louisiana Wednesday afternoon/night at something about 973mb borderline Cat 1/2.

GFS - Landfall in Central to SE Louisiana Wednesday afternoon/night at something about 976mb strong Cat 1.

ICON - Landfall in Central to SE Louisiana Wednesday afternoon at something about 979mb strong Cat 1.

The most recent High-Res ECMWF suggests gusts over 100 MPH in the Big Easy Wednesday 7pm CDT.

The model trends for a stronger hurricane, perhaps intensifying into landfall with a focus on central to SE Louisiana, is overwhelming.

Additional recon missions will be very helpful. Interests in central to SE Louisiana should be making preparations for a Cat 3+ major hurricane, as always a good idea to prep for one cat above current best forecast reasoning, regardless.

This is likely to be a very life-threatening tropical cyclone. Possibly even up for retirement.


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BloodstarModerator
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Re: Zeta Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101439 - Mon Nov 02 2020 11:34 PM

Zeta sideswiped us here. The storm was fast moving and only lasted a few hours. Winds gusted up to ~55 mph here (Marietta, GA), and a large area around us lost power. Saw lots of limbs down and some trees toppled. What made the storm disconcerting was the storm and winds hit around 4 am through 7am. And it's not easy sleeping in a,basement when stuff keeps hitting the house.

But... It was neat to hear the wind roar, only other times I've heard the wind roar (as opposed to howl or whistle) was when a tornado hit and during Frances in 2005.

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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020!

TD/TS/H/M
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kspkap
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Re: Zeta Lounge [Re: Bloodstar]
      #101456 - Sun Nov 08 2020 12:12 AM

Bloodstar,

I wish Zeta had sideswiped us! We here on the MS Gulf Coast got slammed! As I wrote in a prior post we had over 122 mph gusts with over 101 sustained winds. I live in Long Beach next to Gulfport. The damage is severe and widespread. Some say it was worse than Katrina due to the tornados spun off from the storm. There were boats left on US 90. Traffic lights ripped from their cables is making driving nerve racking. So much to clean & restore.

The Northwest part of my roof has been peeled back from the apex down to the edge... akin to a can of tuna! I thought I was building a strong house against hurricanes. It sits on 16” concrete piers and I chose a metal roof thinking it would hold against a strong storm. When it peeled back it created a large hole going into the attic. I lived through the three Central Florida storms in 2004 and made it through without damage.

Currently there is Eta...where she goes no one knows.

Zeta-2020

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Donna-1960, Charley-2004, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Issac-2012


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