Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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If you look real close at the vis sat loop it sure looks like a LLC is trying to form in the general area of the main convection... which is starting to look rather impressive... you can see some low level clouds being pull in from the SW and SE.... SW is of particular interest as the west component is final leg of rotation in a developing system...
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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I'm looking at the loops Lisa and I still don't see it. My eyes aren't too good so what does everyone else see?
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Jara
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Frank you beat me to the punch ,little sport always okay.Looks to me Frank that the upper level enviroment more condusive to development than it was for Grace also.The ULL getting elongated also this ULL might start having an impact tomorrow.I would expect some slow devlopment out of this a possibility.Movement unknown right now.Boy you would almost think somebody is trying to open some doors.
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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This storm will be hitting 60 degrees really soon. If it doesn't turn by then, it looks like a whole new track will come into place, It is not turning! I don't know what the is doing but it is a Cat.4 storm bearing down on the islands, and it is only 300 miles away! I really think they should issue some watches at least!
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Derek Sutherland
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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no real change in forward westerly motion but seems very confident on turn.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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There's an ULL backing west across FL and the Gulf activating that wave to its SE and promoting ridging over its top. Some of the models hinted at development down there a few days ago. I'm assuming the wave axis itself is part of the old 93L (unless that became Fabian and it's 92L). I haven't done any research or read any models or anything, so no further comment from me on it for now.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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teal61
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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Yeah Frank, looking at the NASA loop you can see the some of the lower clouds off the Honduras coast moving from
west to east into what might be a developing LLCc. The Houston NWS mentions this area on their latest AFD as looking impressive and that quckscat was already showing some 30 to 40 knot winds in the area.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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JB's note on the system:
I am getting more pumped for eastern or central gulf of Mexico development. We have an existing wave moving northwest while an upper low over Florida dives southwest. The 6z eta shows dramatically the ridging and outflow that can develop over this system. Once again, it will have to be a complex development with an open wester side, the development starting tomorrow night north of the eastern tip of the Yucatan. But this time a north or northeast movement is a good bet. So the area from Tampa to Boothville has to be concerned. But even if there is no development given the pattern this is trouble. There is plenty of deep level moisture to flow north toward the trof split. In a worst case the system does develop, is ashore late Thursday then coming north up the coastal plain of the Carolinas in tandem with an offshore Fabian. The point is that the summer warmth of the southeast may be replaced by what has been happening most of this summer, alot of wet later this week.
Look at Grace. The system, because of the large elongated circulation is heading north and then northeast and combining with a front for some copious rain amounts. This was covered for last week and re-enforced in the pattern overview Saturday. So far these Gulf developments have not managed to get too strong, but all of them have moved northwest and have developped late in the game relative to landfall. Tomorrow, if we see this organizing quick enough, then we will have a better handle.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Yeah Teal, one of the first things I look for in a developing system is that flow of the low level clouds being pulled into the convection (especially if the convection is obsecuring the low level flow like in the wc this am).... SW leg is definitely there right now.... guessing right now but it hints of a slow north motion but not really positive... need to see some more loops... Like Steve, I've not seen any model data, if there is any, to support further development... but sometimes your eyes are the best model for a developing system...
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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Can someone tell me again where Boothville is within 50 nm?? Thanks.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Is it old data, or is Fabian down to 940mb? Seems to be going wnw now. Should miss the Islands.
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anonymous
Unregistered
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ABNT20 KNHC 011522
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2003
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE National Hurricane Center IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FABIAN...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBUDA IN THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND WESTERN CUBA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR .
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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St. David
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 74
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the low in the gulf would make fabian move more west correct? 
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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No model data yet but a flight has been planned!
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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caneman
Unregistered
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Steve, watching it closely form Tampa. My fear is with the rapid movement of this ULL is that it will be in a ventilating or a non factor position by Wedensday allowing for steady intensification. Do you see this?.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Fabian has made the move, almost going NW now, picking up some speed.
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spky2001
Unregistered
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I don't know, but Fabian looks like it's still moving west to me, with high pressure on top of it. I just don't see the northward turn yet.
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St. David
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 74
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I see no NW movement just due west.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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SE tip of La, basically south of New Orleans near the mouth of the MS river
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 420
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
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Is it possible that this developing low can halt the trough coming in from Canada thereby getting Fabian to continue westward?
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________2013 Forecast: 16/8/4________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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