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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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joepub1a
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
Re: 5 pm update out
      #11364 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:20 PM

THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A PROFOUND LEFT-OF-TRACK BIAS... ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS. THEREFORE...IT IS TIME TO BAIL OUT ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHIFT THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSER TO THE MORE NORTHERN GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS...BUT IT WAS NOT SHIFTED AS FAR NORTH AS THE UKMET SOLUTION.

I want everybody to know that if she turns W, than WSW like the models still say, I will be on the front lines of the masses demanding that the NHC say their sorry to all the models who just got insulted. Taking the side of the GFDL!!! Is there nowhere in the world where it is still safe to lean to the left a little bit???

THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAAST U.S. AND ERODES THE RIDGE A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF ISABEL.

Their begining a long term guessing game now. In the models that feature still doen't pull Isa north, it just slows down some. It might be a very slow turn, but still way out at the edge that they can see.

Joe in JAX


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Bill
Unregistered




Model bust
      #11365 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:24 PM

As I said---Model bust. I like the NHC language about throwing in the towel---at least someone there finally "looked out the window' at what is really happening.

Down the the line--a fish. We will never see this in Fl, or east coast, maybe Outer Banks, but I doubt that too.

PS--look in the Gulf--home grown trouble?

IHS,
Bill


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Bill
Unregistered




Re: Model bust
      #11366 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:25 PM

Ok--I will hedge---it's not LIKELY we will see this storm based on current and 144 hr synoptics...

IHS,

BIll


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Bill
Unregistered




Re: Model bust
      #11367 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:26 PM

Bail out language I meant:)

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 972
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: 5 pm update out
      #11368 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:29 PM

If it is the GFDL solution, it will be at 23n/65w and that will be east of the bahamas and out to sea. EDS.

--------------------
doug


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StPeteGuy
Unregistered




Tampa 'Canes
      #11369 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:52 PM

Zoidy - don't know if anyone said all this but, our biggest threat is not from hurricanes as such - we see more damage from the canes that mount up the Gulf, stall, and whip us since we are East of the storm. We had a noname (low in Gulf that became stationary) storm in 1995 that absolutely drenched us with 20" in 2 days that caused more flooding than anything I had seen since being here from 1968. But generally, since I have been here, the only storms that cruised overhead have been those that spark up out of nowhere from Mexico or in the SW Gulf and head right for us. I have always been more concerned that an Andrew type storm might zero in on us straight from Miami but that hasn't happened that I can remember.

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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Model bust
      #11370 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:53 PM

Garbage in = Garbage out. Isabel appears to be following her own path this evening.

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StPeteGuy
Unregistered




Northerly Turn
      #11371 - Tue Sep 09 2003 06:06 PM

I am looking at some military forecasts that predict a strong northerly (WNW) turn at 22N/61N day 5 (from today) and continuing day 6 - 8 making her a fish spinner up the Atlantic coast. I guess it is way too early for anyone's predictions to be that good just yet, but is that what everyone is starting to see too?

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StPeteGuy
Unregistered




Gulf - SW of New Orleans
      #11372 - Tue Sep 09 2003 06:12 PM

I forgot to ask if the flair up in the upper Gulf SW of New Orleans is a daytime thing or if it is getting better organized?? Looks like it want to start heading SE to me??

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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
European Model
      #11374 - Tue Sep 09 2003 06:19 PM

Does anyone have a good link to the European Model Maps?

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Model bust
      #11376 - Tue Sep 09 2003 06:25 PM

model bust meaning the storm is off a couple hundred miles over three days? thats to be expected. i'm waiting for the definitive turn... and to see whether it bends left past 270 or not. i can see how either model camp could be right, could be something in the middle. the thing i'm looking at right now is the e-w elongation that has been mentioned this afternoon. thats a cue that the upper dynamics around the storm are changing. its a powerful hurricane, and can resist such things.. how much is the question. long term dynamics as i'm reckoning are still under the ridge for most of the period, slow down on the shortwave.. then probably back west after that. there's some reasoning behind that, i'll go touch on it in the forum.
something i keep noticing.. henri's ghost keeps showing up on models.. some actually seem to redevelop the storm off the carolinas around the end of the week and send it back up the western side of the high currently blocking its escape to the northeast. might still be viable.
HF 2225z09september


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: European Model
      #11377 - Tue Sep 09 2003 06:26 PM

www.ecmwf.int
you can navigate a page ahead to it from there.


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: European Model
      #11378 - Tue Sep 09 2003 06:27 PM

No...I wish I could find one. Now People we are going to extremes right now. One change to the NHC forecast that shifted to the right now has everyone saying fish. Balderdash. We need to see what Izy does during the next 24 hours, and look at the model trends. We are 8 days out from possible landfall. Things will change tonight/tomorrow, etc> Cheers!!

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4239
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: European Model
      #11379 - Tue Sep 09 2003 06:29 PM

Steve I still think its fish, I was watching it earlier and thought it but I'm more convinced of it now. I always tend to err toward the less dangerous situations anyway. If things change I will definitely write something new to let opinions be known.

I'm finding more that may agree with you Steve. I may have to bring up the crow and a fork tomorrow as I go through some other info.

Edited by MikeC (Tue Sep 09 2003 07:32 PM)


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Bill
Unregistered




Not just one thing
      #11382 - Tue Sep 09 2003 07:34 PM

That's makes me say fish---it is the cumulation of things. The main thing is, I am an empiricist---observation of what is REALLY happening usually tends to overrule theoretical projections.

The storm is deviating from the 'model consensus" and NHC official track.

The upper low is not weakening, and is not moving as fast as they say out of the way.

Historically, NHC overplays upper low dissipation/movement.

Other factors, too lengthy to go in to here---and, shall we say--intuition.

Result---my feeling, growing over time- that Isabel is a fish---will not even see the Bahamas. Not a conviction yet, but give it 24 hrs and ask me again

IHS,

Bill



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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: European Model
      #11383 - Tue Sep 09 2003 07:34 PM

I have to agree with Steve. I think some people are getting ahead of themselves. It hasn't made a move towards the west yet, but I don't think we can rule it out at this point. It's a little too early to be labeling her a fish spinner.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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SandiaFlower
Unregistered




Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone
      #11692 - Thu Sep 11 2003 03:59 PM

But the deal is the CA coastal waters peak out at in the 60's temp wise. I think a storm needs higher SST's. Disturbances seemed to stop midway on the Baja peninsula. But it could have gotten interesting if it found el nino warmer waters...........LA and other CA locations are not hurricane ready

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SandiaFlower
Unregistered




Re: ?
      #11695 - Thu Sep 11 2003 04:12 PM

Interesting how people think hurricanes like this are fun to watch. They may be on a computer but a different story once it is in your YARD.

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