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Archives >> 2003 News Talkback

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: Pensacola.. in the Gulf..
      #13330 - Thu Sep 25 2003 09:43 AM

That was mentioned on TWC this morning as an area to watch. Things can develop quickly in the GOM but it is close to land. Bears some watching.

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Jara

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
thursday morning
      #13331 - Thu Sep 25 2003 10:02 AM

the NE gulf... there was a low forecast to develop close in down there by some model the other day. maybe it was more than one, i don't know.. but interesting to see.
we have to invests that are much more real development possibilities at the moment.
the system southeast of bermuda is getting a subtropical rating of 1.5. if it gets any better organized (models forecast at least steady persistance, most develop it).. it will probably be rated subtropical. thats 99L.
98L is plugging along westward, looks more concentrated this morning. 1.0 d rating. it's still oriented somewhat SW-NE, but less tilted than yesterday. less model enthusiasm about development here.. so this will evolve slow if at all.
the caribbean area still lacks definition, not one of those broad low pressure areas yet.. no total model agreement on this.. but enough evidence to take it as a serious possibility.
so, looks like one is going for sure, another is probably going.. a third is still in the air.. and anything else is not apparent yet. after how dead things became when isabel was in town, i was doubting we'd make the seasonal quotas.. but enter MJO and anything seems possible again.
HF 1402z25september


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
99 looks sort of like a done deal
      #13332 - Thu Sep 25 2003 10:35 AM

Whether will be ST or Tropical..time will tell but looks like we will have advisories on it soon.

As for the wave...I can hear a lot of you hemming and hawing from work today... can see your nit picking complaints but all things considered... looks better than most CV waves we have had so far and think it will maintain and develop to some level. Wouldn't count it out despite its appearance that seems to be missing some "oomphf"



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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: 99 looks sort of like a done deal
      #13333 - Thu Sep 25 2003 10:44 AM

yep, 15L noname on NRL. with the new convention it gets a name regardless if winds get to gale force.. so i guess juan is finally on the way.
HF 1445z25september


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: 99 looks sort of like a done deal
      #13334 - Thu Sep 25 2003 10:46 AM

NRL is calling "
99L" ...."15L no-name" which I think indicates that classification is forthcoming.

I guess you type faster HanKFranK..hee, hee.

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Jara

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Edited by stormchazer (Thu Sep 25 2003 10:47 AM)


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: 99 looks sort of like a done deal
      #13335 - Thu Sep 25 2003 10:58 AM

>>As for the wave...I can hear a lot of you hemming and hawing from work today... can see your nit picking complaints but all things considered... looks better than most CV waves we have had so far and think it will maintain and develop to some level. Wouldn't count it out despite its appearance that seems to be missing some "oomphf"<<

Whose a "hemmin" and whose a "hawwin"? I agree! It has a well defined twist and has some convection that just needs to concentrate. There is not serious dry air ahead and I don't see shear developing until closer to the Antilles. The only thing going against it may be climatology and the fact that soon to be Juan's outflow could produce some shearing elements.

That area in the Gulf continues to grow. I haven't seen any pressure readings from that area but it is interesting. Need input....I guess I best go study before I comment anymore.


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Jara

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
TD 15
      #13336 - Thu Sep 25 2003 11:03 AM

Well, we got TD 15; the system south east of Bermuda. Could have some affect on Nova Scotia down the road...

"after a long and difficult debate to determine the structure of the cyclone...tropical or subtropical....the area of disturbed weather southeast of Bermuda is being designated as Tropical Depression Fifteen. There are no clear cut signals and we could have gone tropical or subtropical at this time. The cyclone is still somewhat attached to a frontal zone but at the same time...it has enough convection near the center. In addition...the lastest amsu data show a weak warm core at the mid to upper-levels suggesting that the cyclone is on its way to become more tropical. Slow strengthening is indicated before the system moves over cool waters and becomes extratropical in 4 days.

The depression appears to be moving slowly toward the northeast. However...a developing subtropical ridge to the east of the cyclone will force the system to move on a general northward track for the next 3 to 4 days. This is consistent with the GFDL and the GFS.
Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 25/1500z 29.5n 61.0w 30 kt
12hr VT 26/0000z 30.5n 61.0w 35 kt
24hr VT 26/1200z 32.0n 61.0w 45 kt
36hr VT 27/0000z 33.5n 61.5w 55 kt
48hr VT 27/1200z 35.0n 62.0w 55 kt
72hr VT 28/1200z 40.0n 63.2w 55 kt
96hr VT 29/1200z 46.0n 62.0w 55 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 30/1200z...absorbed"

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 25 2003 11:08 AM)


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