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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Northward Bound
      #13379 - Fri Sep 26 2003 08:54 PM

Update - Saturday Evening

Hurricane Juan continues to look more impressive and I would think that the sustained winds are now approaching 80 knots. The 21Z advisory will probably nudge the forecast track a little to the west, which as Steve has noted, would create a significant problem for the city of Halifax, Nova Scotia. A strong storm surge up the Bay would create a serious flooding problem in that city tomorrow evening.

The westerly shear over TD 16 has relaxed a little and convection has built back over the center - which had been exposed earlier today. The 21Z NHC advisory will classify the system as Tropical Storm Kate with no significant changes in the forecast track - at least NHC was willing to make a quick adjustment to their intensity outlook for this system.

Invest 90L is still disorganized, but the pressure in the area has been falling at about one millibar every 6 hours. The tropical models have been very consistent in developing this tropical wave, with a slight westward adjustment on each run over the past 24 hours. If TD 17 develops near Cozumel, the folks in central and southern Florida need to really monitor what will likely become Tropical Storm Larry. Assuming development, it looks like landfall would be early Wednesday. If the Depression forms, I'll post more on this one in the Storm Forum.
ED

Original Post

Lots of areas of activity in the basin and its all heading north - or soon will be. Hurricane Juan is well east northeast of Bermuda and is heading north at 8-10 knots. Juan looks more tropical this evening than it has in the past couple of days. TD 15/Juan had a lot of subtropical characteristics when it started, but a separate and distinct core of convection has developed around the center this afternoon. Slight intensification in the next 18 hours as he heads north toward Nova Scotia with a gradual increase in forward speed.

TD 16 has been slow to evolve, but it is getting there and should become Tropical Storm Kate on Saturday. Movement is to the northwest, maybe even north northwest and a more northerly and eventually northeasterly trend is likely for this system.

Invest 90L in the Caribbean Sea with a mid-level circulation near 17.5N 83W at 27/00Z. Convection has been on the wane this evening, but the structure of the system has actually slowly improved. The mid-level center has been drifting to the north - perhaps just west of due north. If the system develops over the weekend (and it has a good chance - could be a future Larry), a slow curve NW-N-NE seems likely - possible problem for Florida, but it still has a long way to go in terms of development.

Weak non-tropical low off the Florida east coast could eventually do something, but the chances are rather low. GOM development seems less likely if the Caribbean system starts to get its act together. Lots of activity to watch and track this weekend.
ED

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Sep 27 2003 04:46 PM)


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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Larry Bud
      #13380 - Fri Sep 26 2003 09:08 PM

Convection was waning as should be expected with developing systems..we have seen it millions of times with W. Atl. systems. Convection coming and more importantly is the structure..outflow developing in all quads as almost nil shear on top...takes 24-36 for a cyclone to build oin top but i think this is a good bet..TD no later than 5 pm and probably sooner..NHC sounded very confident earlier with the old conditions are favorable. Recon is 90% bet for tomorrow as system is close in and not much time to to do their public service if they think it will develop and come to FL. Typical sheared state coming in from the W since it will be weak so no big problems for Florida.

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Larry Bud
      #13381 - Sat Sep 27 2003 12:31 AM

90L model runs take it over Central or S. Fla, interesting to see at what strength will it be at when it crosses the peninsula.
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/90LTRP.html

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
tropical depressions galore
      #13382 - Sat Sep 27 2003 02:21 AM

when the season is over, there is going to be a flurry of tropical depression tracks, from systems that never matured past this stage (or did and without direct observation conservative NHC play kept them as such). TD 16 is the next candidate for that distinction, as the NHC kept it a depression in spite of satelite classifications indicating a higher strength (convection removal makes the cloud pattern correlation iffy). still, we're currently at six as the number of depressions that have never made t.s. strength this season.. t.d. 16 could easily make it seven if it shears out.
so, anyway... juan on its merry way to the canadian maritimes.. joy.
90L in the western caribbean long forecast to begin organizing.. playing convective peek-a-boo. as good as it currently looks, expect it to be a classified system by sunday, and be up near south florida around tuesday. system east of florida is under a lot of shear and won't be of tropical origin if it tries anything.
so, thats the basin.
HF 0622z27september


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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: tropical depressions galore
      #13383 - Sat Sep 27 2003 02:55 AM

90L's circulation is evident on water vapor this evening. Just nothing in the way of convection so far... I am kinda crossing my fingers on this one as my Bahama cruise leaves on Monday. Could be a very interesting place to watch a storm from...

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: tropical depressions galore
      #13384 - Sat Sep 27 2003 07:15 AM

Yeah Donino, been watching for any convective flair up again. Have to say that the area is starting to show more signs of life this morning. If it continues, I'm willing to bet that they will send the plane in today to check it out. Hope all goes well with your cruise, would be a bummer if they canceled.


Mary, in a response to your last post about systems comming our way, have to say that if it was earlier in the season and our area was the first on the models list I would not be too concerned either, usually first pick is in the clear, however as we get into September and into the rest of the season I become a little more concerned as the Florida Pen. suddenly becomes a favored target area. Look even now how everything is set up and the flow we have over our area. Looking back a few years you can see that we have seen our share of systems in September. The systems that we have had during this time has been kind to us, so no one can really say that they have experienced a cane from this area. Looking back we had Josephine in '96, Harvey in '99, he was headed straight for central Florida and on the 11th hour decided to take a dip to our south. There was Hurricane Gordon in 2000, but I think pinellas had very limited hurricane force winds when he came thru. I think that Gabrielle is the TS that you are thinking about in '01. So as you can see Sept. seems to have our name written on the calandar. 90L is looking a bit better will need to keep a close eye on this one, but have to say that I feel that it will come in south of central Florida, at this point it is really a too little early to say that, but I said it and we'll see.


Hey Justme good to see your post! I was wondering where you've been....


--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Edited by 57497479 (Sat Sep 27 2003 07:18 AM)


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: tropical depressions galore
      #13385 - Sat Sep 27 2003 08:01 AM

They were giving our little invest a T-Number at 2am hour:

27/0615 UTC 18.5N 84.3W T1.0/1.0 92

With that in mind, I can't see them not sending a recon especially with its close location to land. Thin convection but an obvious mid-level spin. A good recon might tell if that mid-level is nearing the surface. They will send it, unless it just disappears.

p.s. If they don't then please delete this message.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: tropical depressions galore
      #13386 - Sat Sep 27 2003 08:33 AM

SC, think your safe with the disappearance act! Didn't know that it had been given T's. Have you noticed that there is a lot of convection to the East of the system? I noticed last night that there was convection flairing around Jamaica and then this morning it is even further East to Haiti. Didn't mention it last night, but then it was brought up on another board this AM so I thought that it was worth pointing out. Could that eventually wrap into the system or is there something else goin on there? Hope the rain holds off for a while here, have outside plans for the day. Most likely will see rain toward the end of the day... Everybody have a good one!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: tropical depressions galore
      #13387 - Sat Sep 27 2003 09:45 AM

Believe that convection around Haiti is a tropical wave that's flaring up. 90L's convection is much better than last night, though I still think it's got a way's to go before being classified as a TD, we'll see what recon finds out today.

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
carib
      #13388 - Sat Sep 27 2003 11:25 AM

been watching that too, tropicsguy. yesterday it was south of p.r./d.r. with an evident turning in the low level wind field.. crowding will be taking place if it's trying the same route as 90L... situation in the western caribbean may become very complex in the next couple of days.
juan headed for a sunday night/monday morning crossing of nova scotia. should be on the wane as it crosses those sub 20C isotherms.. dependent on how fast it's moving and what happens ahead of the trough to the west. there is that one little disturbance east of georgia heading up off the east coast.. still some modeling wants to deepen it. if it does become a baroclinic hybrid system.. that would act to pull juan further west if anything.
t.d. 16.. another sad case. it was probably a tropical storm yesterday while the NHC was pointing to a confused cloud pattern (becoming sheared). it was probably a tropical storm last night when the d-ratings were higher (convective pattern was sheared but well developed). now it's got an exposed, convection-bursting center that is probably generating spot gale force winds.. but NHC is going to keep playing it as a depression. no strengthening forecast through 72hrs. assuming it can hang on that long, window may open up the road. globals are all over with what it does (nogaps has a westward moving hurricane next week, ukmet squashes it, GFS sort of between the two). point is, no kate. from this point its future is highly uncertain.. may be around next week, may shear out and be the seventh nonstrengthening depression of the season.
HF 1525z27september


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: carib
      #13389 - Sat Sep 27 2003 12:57 PM

Despite 90L still warranting a T number, recon has been cancelled today. I guess I should delete my earlier post.

27/1145 UTC 18.7N 84.6W T1.0/1.0

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


Edited by stormchazer (Sat Sep 27 2003 12:58 PM)


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: carib
      #13390 - Sat Sep 27 2003 03:22 PM

FWIW, NRL has "Kate" out there for their advisories. Anyways, here's JB's take from a Special Saturday column update and the Saturday column. The keys worth noting are the evolution of the wave/Caribbean low interaction and then down the road with the trof split, front and wave south of Kate/16. That's the shot at something really strong for the Gulf of Mexico which would have to be watched in Louisiana and especially Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. If we're loosely following some of analog 1995's season (Opal in particular), a southern Gulf Development would not be out of the question for the period 11-14 days out.
------------------enjoy------------------------------
SPECIAL EDITIONS OF THE LONG RANGER AND THE TROPICAL OUTLOOK SHOULD BE ON LINE AROUND 3 PM
SATURDAY MIDDAY: TPC SHIFTS WEST.

A very significant change has occurred in TPC's track, and I dont know by reading their discussion whether they understand the implications. The discussion makes no mention of the fact that the west shift has implications for a major canadian port, Halifax.

Now look, I dont expect them to do what I do when I come around to their ideas, which is say, well I am adjusting the track toward TPC as fabian and Isabel. Obviously input from the private sector is something they chose to ignore. However, I would think they would say that this increases the threat to this city, as the track is no longer east, but over or west of them, and is a shift quite a bit toward the idea we have been spouting on the site. Now whether it happens or not can still be argued, but what cant be argued is the new forecast is bringing a hurricane west of Halifax, as opposed to the earlier idea which had it going east, or left room to do it. The threat of a hurricane hit, with a storm surge into a bay shaped to funnel water is I guess now forecasted by them also.

Ciao for now. *****




Saturday: ZONES BELOW FRIDAY OVERVIEW.! COMMENTS: COLD SHOT AND PATTERN FLIP: I have no big changes here. This is one of the strongest, longest cold periods ever seen to end September. its one thing to have an in and out one day affair, quite the other to see a 5 day mean of 10 or greater below normal in lets say Chicago, which this may do. The good news is that the ideas of this trof pulling out and the westerlies coming back look good. This "trof" split means that the western ridge flattens and extends east through the lakes in the means ( creates higher than average mid level heights there) and we see the leaving behind of the southern piece of the trof in the means. I need to try to get clear here, because alot of you dont understand. What happens is this: Where the jet stream is most strongly buckled ( temps coldest aloft in a rough manner of speaking, we will see very strong warming aloft from Friday through next Monday, so the buckling completely pulls up and the flow goes zonal. To the south though, no such warming in the means takes place, and we are left with a trof, relative to the averages over the gulf. An old front is laying in there ( next weekend) and high pressure is to the north. The tropical wave near 10 and 35 is the one to watch on its way west, cause it should be in the area in about 10 days, so we are talking the southern gulf 7-10 days down the road as an area to watch.

However before that, we have the gathering and piling up area that we have been talking about trying to develop for this weekend since Tuesday, now over the western caribbean and here we go again, same kind of thing we saw with Bill and Claudette. Existing mid level disturbance is drifting slowly northwest, and the low level tropical wave is coming from the southeast. What should happen is competition today may disrupt the whole process and lead to a downtick but come later tomorrow or Monday, they should combine. With the big 200mb ridge right in there, this looks like a case for development.

I would like to point out, from earlier week posts and the videos, that whether this develops or not, so far it is going according to plan. The increase in convection started yesterday. The system should be over the northwest tip of Cuba later tomorrow. The crucial influx of low level energy is with the wave near 75. The westward shift with this is quicker than the westward shift with the pre-existing disturbance, so it closes the distance, competes, then combines.

The idea then is that it will head slowly northeast and use the alley in advance of the fronts coming out to head toward Florida. At the very least, the rainmaking potential from a front pressing down, and low pressure moving along the front should concern folks in the rainsoaked southern part of the sunshine state. At the worst, it develops and we have Tuesday into Wednesday trouble. I am concerned and I think the latter is a good possibility. However until the players get closer on the field, its tough to say. it does fit the pattern both long range idea on the seasons end game, and the current state of affairs. I may note that the one of the analog season with very similar water temperatures off the east coast, though not in the Pacific is 1999, the year of Irene in southeast florida, which evolved out of the Caribbean.

I have always been 1-2 degrees west of TPC on Juan and I still think this is going in at Halifax or west. The storm will have hurricane conditions at landfall on its eastern side, but once 100 miles to the west, rain is about the only thing that would be a problem. I dont think this will come all the way back to hit down east Maine, but its certainly not a 0% chance. The ridge is not angled though enough for a west of north movement past 42 north, so unless its over to 67 or 68 by then, I see no reason to change the idea. However like Georges in 1998 where a 80 mile error meant everything to New Orleans, though against a skill score was not a bad forecast, 80 miles here means a whole heck of alot to Halifax. Quite bluntly, my track would imply a hurricane hitting the city with a tidal surge, the TPC track is an escape to the east as they would have an offshore wind. The moral of the story for our Canadian friends is that I am more bullish on the city getting hit or being EAST of where the center crosses, exposing them to the full surge from the ocean and the uninhibited transfer of the strong winds down to the surface that occurs east of the center of these kind of storms.

16 is a goner, at least from the recurved point of view, but we knew that. We have to watch what is trying to come underneath though, not for quick development, but for what it could do, but over a week away.


--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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AlexK
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
NRL info
      #13391 - Sat Sep 27 2003 03:48 PM

I noticed on the 90 invest, the NRL shows the "winds" up to 35 mph. It doesnt really look like its getting better organized

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: NRL info
      #13392 - Sat Sep 27 2003 03:58 PM

Here are some quality links for Hurricane Juan out of Environment Canada that you may or may not have bookmarked. This is most likely going to be a major storm for the Halifax metro. I watched JB's video and he put up a map of the area from one of the online map companies. He's particularly concerned about the funnel shaped bay and the chance of some major flooding. This storm really is winding up pretty nice if you ask me. The Labats, Mooseheads and Molsons are gonna be going down smooth up there tomorrow.

EC Hurricane Page

EC Sat Links

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Northward Bound
      #13393 - Sat Sep 27 2003 04:48 PM

Just a note to let you know that the Main News Article has been updated. Also, NASA MSFC is back on-line.
Cheers,
ED


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Northward Bound
      #13394 - Sat Sep 27 2003 07:06 PM

Thanks Ed for your up-date. Our W. caribbean disturbance looks like it is taking its sweet old time to develop (that is if it ever does) I wonder what the convection problem is? But with a continued pressure drop one would think that it is trying to get it's act together. Seems to me that we have had a lot of systems struggle with convection problems this season or am I wrong? Oh yeah, do you have a link to the buoys in that area?

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: Northward Bound
      #13395 - Sat Sep 27 2003 08:03 PM

I am reading on other sites right now that the disturbance in the Western Caribbean is going to run into a great deal of sheer if it decides to form into an entity bearing a name and will most likely not make it to more than rain for the Florida area. I am wondering if there are any further speculations on how that will change, if it will change and is it worth betting on time and place it will become an entity( TD, TS, Hur, tropical or substropical) and finally who will it impact. this could be a poll but I don't know how to set one up and I am not sure any one cares at this point on a Saturday night with football and many other things to do.

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Northward Bound
      #13396 - Sat Sep 27 2003 08:15 PM

Looking at some of the shear models, I do not see serious shear, bar the far northwest GOM and some in the Strait of FL. Here is the link to the shear models.

shear models

I'm not paticularly good at reading these models so one of the more knowledgable folk could tell you more.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Northward Bound
      #13397 - Sat Sep 27 2003 08:35 PM

Hey Toni,

Don't buy the hype. It's all laid out in Bastardi's column I quoted. It won't be until tomorrow that the battle between the MLC and entraining wave will be over to see what we will be dealing with. We likely won't see development until Monday sometime if ever. Gut call would be a minimum-medium grade tropical storm coming in somewhere south of Tampa Bay on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. In any event, another 2 to locally 6" of rain is possible in south Florida mid-week.

As for shear, the front is probably going to barrel into the mid-Gulf, so the shear will be over the northern half of the Gulf. The flow in front of the front would be SW meaning a NNE-ENE movement thereafter. However, the front & jet will be a good entrance region for the system and would provide a degree of ventilation if it gets going. I don't see any reason why it shouldn't given the pattern that spawned 4 other TD's+ this year.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: Northward Bound
      #13398 - Sat Sep 27 2003 08:36 PM

why does anyone think there is shear..its not there...incredible. NHC has been saying for 48 hours upper level winds are favorable..they wouldnt say that if there was shear in excess of 10..ok. Every TWO and discussion says winds are favorable...its not going to be a cat 3 but it isnt going to get shredded by shear for now.

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