Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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Guess what??? Flight cancelled 
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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I am not surprised in that anything they need to know at this point about the storm they can get from ground observations. It will probably have to get past Cuba or become a threat to Cuba before the aircraft are allowed in the area. Probably some kind of political boundary issues going on with this.
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Geezie Pete!! If they keep this up, I'm goin to have to have a little talk with Castro..... 
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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AlexK
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
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It seems that the better 90L looks, the less organized the says it is. I seriously doubt they cant fly a plane in because of national airspace regulations. I sure wish they would!
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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who says they arent flying due to natioanl airspace regulations..the only place they cant fly is over cuban airspace but thats it. the reason they arent going is because there isnt a center..plain and simple.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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let me add a little uncertainty to your statement, jl. been checking the SFC obs in the yucatan, belize, cayman, eastern cuba... honduras. reporting calm winds in the eastern yucatan, gusty se winds near cozumel, weak westerly winds in belize and honduras. sure sounds like a broad circulation to me.. with convection going in the middle.
if anything gets in the way of 90L going, its going to be that the low starts trying to tighten over land. if you look at old tracks (opal and agnes for example), systems can/do maintain organization in this area if the conditions are right. no telling.
the ssd rating on '93' off the mid-atlantic coast earlier probably represents the peak of this system.. it's elongating some, and has all its convection on the NE side. there have been buoy reports suggesting pressure near 1004mb, winds as high as 25kt. reminiscent track and behavior to that low in mid-august 2000 that produced gale force winds, but the never named... probably will be treated with similar disregard. with the proximity to juan and the advancing front, the squeeze is on... its just a hybrid low racing in behind juan. probably frontally associate up near the gulf of maine and amount to nothing more than another shot of rain in juan's wake.
kate.. should be interacting with that complex cutoff low to the north. one should entrain the other.. or something. it might be ambling back westward as ridging in the atlantic shifts to block its escape.. this time of year those central atlantic storms get whipped around on odd tracks that suggest great confusion. maybe kate will give us one of those... join the likes of ginny '63, inga '69, ginger '71, kyle '02.
or maybe it will shear out and get gobbled up by the low to the north.
HF 1740z28september
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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There may be no center of circulation and I will grant that up front, but how many records do we have since the 60's of our American Hurricane Hunters flying in to the area around western Cuba. My rememberance is that they always wait until the center gets in to Mexian airspace or into the edge of the Florida straits before investigation takes place. On the Guantanamo base side of Cuba we may be flying into that airspace for weather recon. We also may fly over Jamica but not to my remberance do we fly into Cuban airspace and acknowledge we did it.
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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ok, LLC is a small possibility and i am not saying it will develop because it looks like a player to me but the airspace thing was out there as far as mars..i should have qualified it more. I certainly don't see anythin gettin North of about 27 based the winds so we will see..enjoy your dating and your football today.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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mary, i believe that the international airspace convention is 12 miles off the coast of said country. it's a lot closer than you'd guess. remember that ep-3 recon plane that had a midair with a chinese fighter a couple years back? that was something like 25 miles off the chinese coast, if i recall. i've also heard stuff about cuba granting overflight for weather recon.. since they have vested interest in not dying by the thousands in hurricanes. castro may be a jackass dictator, but he isn't that clueless.
so, i'm pretty sure that a system centered 200-250 miles south of cuba isn't going to be an airspace problem.
anyhow, the forecast graphics have a merge low in the southeast bay of campeche tomorrow.. makes me think it's going to be over land for a while.
kate looking good, by the way.
HF 1829z28september
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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heh, weather master my @$$.
i was hanging out with a 20 y/o chick well on her way to a met. degree, who wants to chase tornadoes for a living, last night. cute as can be, too, surprised she isn't looking in to doing TV. plenty of real weather masters around this place.. i'll stick with amateur weather enthusiast for now.
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Well you are one whether you want to be or not, look at it this way it comes free with the site! Ok I need you guys to look at this loop and tell me what direction 90L is moving. Could be wrong or maybe its not a good loop to look at but says W-NW. Having a hard time with that direction...
click here
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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Toni,
I have been watching the loop which is 20 items long all day, will give address at the end. I can see over time where the convection has popped up and subsided several times but the area that "appears" to be a center if there were one, is drifting north-north west in my opinion. This only means that either it is pulling heat and moisture in from the Yucatan, or it is a circulation of the storm that is making that curving rotation and is an optical illusion. This loop I have looks very good and keeps it in perspective because you can see Juan and Kate too. It is a very very slow load if you only have dial up like me.
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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Looks North to me but, Its hard to discern where the center of whatever circulation is.
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Jara
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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The Wrel page is showing a dominant model depicting 90L crossing Florida at approximately Apalachicola and heading to Charleston. See what I mean, storms DO NOT go to Florida, they just pass through on their way to other places.
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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Don't know what is talking about on there 5pm outlook about the Carribean disturbance. Moving wnw at 10 mph? Must of smoked a good one this afternoon because there is no wnw movement. Hard to say if it will become Larry. Takes time down there and things change in time. Guess just keep an eye on it....
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Thanks Mary and SC, nice loop btw. Had that link at one time, but lost a lot of my favorites that I had bookmarked. Could just be an illusion with the blow off to the East, but it looks to me like it is going N. with a N-NE component. Would make it a lot easier if we had a center to track, maybe later tomorrow!
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Actually, depending on when you looked at it, you all may be right. Earlier this afternoon, NASA close-up imagery showed a nicely defined mid to low level circulation moving to the north. Later, that motion became northwest for about an hour or so and for the past couple of hours the movement has been to the west northwest at 5 knots. At 21Z the center was at 19.7N 86.4W while at 23Z it was located at 19.8N 86.6W.
Steering currents are very weak in the area (and forecasted to remain that way) and there is a possibility that the small center is beginning a tight cyclonic loop just southeast of Cozumel - it will take a few more hours before we can tell, and we may have to wait until first visibles tomorrow morning to find out for sure.
Some weak banding was evident on the last-light visible images and a small area of convection was starting to fire up just to the east of the center. Pressure is down to 1005mb or about 4mb lower than yesterday evening.
System hasn't done much all weekend...but its still there and the pressure is lower. Models are all over the place with this one. At 120 hours there is a variance of 14 degrees of latitude and 42 degrees of longitude, i.e., future track if it develops is very uncertain.
Cheers,
ED
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Thanks Ed ,well regardless of the motion of 90L, looks like the lower FL Keys about to be slammed by a band of heavy T-storms moving north from Cuba.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Thanks Ed for your thoughts and insight. Maybe the new convection to the East that you are refering to is what I am seeing that is throwing my direction off to the NE a tad.
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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AlexK
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
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I still have a hunch this thing is going to amount to something. The pressure in Cozumel is 29.70 inches\, or 1006 mb. I think once some convection fires over the center, it will get its act together
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