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Remnant TD9 Moves into the Yucatan. TS Warnings Have Been Dropped.
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Archives >> 2003 News Talkback

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2330
Loc: Melbourne, FL
The Next System?
      #13456 - Mon Sep 29 2003 02:15 PM

Monday Evening Update

As noted in the TWD earlier this afternoon, the poorly organized center, if you could call it that, has energized further west. At 21Z, the closest thing that I could find with any rotation at all was near 22.4N 88.6W and it was stationary. The overall structure is less well defined than it was 24 hours ago and if the weak center continues to rebuild further to the west, the likelyhood of development will decrease since the upper air environment becomes more hostile. If nothing else, it looks like 90L will be noted for its rainfall from the Yucatan to south Florida.

Original Post

After a short stall south southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, Sunday evening, the circulation center of Invest 90L moved in a general northward direction during the night...and it still is, at 10 knots. At 17Z the center was near 22.3N 87.0W, or just to the north of the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula. The system is still poorly organized but seems to be ever so slowly getting its act together. Water temps are toasty, shear is light (except to the north) and convection predominates to the east of the center. A new area of convection is developing, aided by orographic lift over the northern Yucatan, to the south of the center.

Water vapor imagery defines an eventual northeast to east northeast movement, so even if it doesn't make it much past TD stage because of the increasing shear to the north, it will certainly shove a lot of moisture toward Florida. With a stalled front over central Florida, over-running of moist tropical air will produce plenty of rain for the southern half of the not-so-sunshiney peninsula for the next few days. Flood Watches are already in place for most of central and south Florida. I'd anticipate TD 17 sometime tonight.

Hurricane Juan is gone, but not before bringing gusts of 85 to 90mph to Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island shortly after midnight (ET) last night. Kate continues to meander in the central Atlantic and will continue to do so for a few more days. Kate is likely to become the sixth hurricane of the season.

The rest of the basin is quiet and nothing new is on the horizon. Africa is very quiet. The last wave off of the African coast evaporated in less than 12 hours - signs that the Cape Verde season has closed down for the year.
ED

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: The Next System?
      #13457 - Mon Sep 29 2003 03:11 PM

Good name for a topic. Do we have one or not is the question.

Gray rainy day in Miami... imagine will get nastier..saw the radar. Boy all that rain down there, imagine if anyone is doing film work round here or post production work it must be costing them a fortune to sit around and wait for the rain to end.

Guess that's nature's revenge or joke on them.

No Sunny Days in Miami... not for the rest of the week it seems.

So... something with a name organized going to form or will it be just rain.

Keep watching.. same bat message board, same bat message posters

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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AlexK
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
ship observations
      #13458 - Mon Sep 29 2003 03:15 PM

A ship around 20.8 and 87.6 reported winds at 22kts and 29.78 pressure. It may be a weak depression

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: ship observations
      #13459 - Mon Sep 29 2003 03:35 PM

2PM TWD:

1007 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
20N87W DRIFTING WEST. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS
INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND HIGH
RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST ROTATION
IS RE-FORMING OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...VIRTUALLY
ALL OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EVOLVED INTO A
LINEAR BAND EXTENDING FROM COZUMEL EWD TO SOUTH/CNTRL CUBA.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
DRIFTS WWD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
BUT THE TSTMS WILL FIRST HAVE TO FORM AND ORGANIZE NEAR THE
CENTER. REGARDLESS...SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT
UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND PARTS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTH FLORIDA CAN EXPECT THESE
RAINS TO CONTINUE.

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Juan damage
      #13460 - Mon Sep 29 2003 03:42 PM

Here's a link about Juan's storm damage in Nova Scotia, Can.

http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2003/09/29/juan030929

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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SunNFun
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: Redington Beach, FL
Re: The Next System?
      #13461 - Mon Sep 29 2003 04:00 PM

We are already getting gusts at 21 mph here on the beach. I don't know if it is related to the next system or not but overcast all day and about an inch or two of rain here so far.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Hello Larry?
      #13463 - Mon Sep 29 2003 05:10 PM

Nothing official after the 5:00 update, 90L will be investigated tomorrow...right now, two models are showing west coast strikes: LBAR just south of Panama City & BAMD between Sarasota & Tampa/St. Pete...will need to be watched.

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/90LTRP.html


--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Hello Larry?
      #13464 - Mon Sep 29 2003 05:43 PM

convection will have to start building around the NW yucatan for this thing to start tightening.. there is a more defined, large scale turning than there was before. models not clustered in any way on this thing, 5pm twd speaks of less favorable conditions.. a more vague picture is given for forecast development. very uncertain right now, but if anything is going to go.. its probably the sw gulf.
HF 2143z29september


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Watch and Wait mode...
      #13465 - Mon Sep 29 2003 06:31 PM

Watched Norcross on the wxr tonight, seemed not committed to anything specific forming... either way florida is in the flow.

Cannot imagine heavier rain from a named system than we had this afternoon ...for about an hour

streets are totally flooded....

Still watching...still waiting...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: Watch and Wait mode...
      #13466 - Mon Sep 29 2003 06:45 PM

After days of expected development the forecast is not as pro-development as before. Lots of moisture out there.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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AlexK
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Definite western circulation...but
      #13467 - Mon Sep 29 2003 07:15 PM

It is isolated from convection and there is much shear nearby, I wonder if there is a spin where the deep convection is(East of the yucatan)

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Watch and Wait mode...
      #13468 - Mon Sep 29 2003 07:23 PM

Hey Bobbi, hope you have your boots close by! Looks like you are going to be in the flow for a while. No doubt about it, it doesn't take a named system to produce some severe flooding. We had some rain in my area earlier today but have had none for a few hours now,expect it to start again later tonight though. Just caught Lyons on TWC, his take was that south Florida will see the NE blow off but the actual low will move into the BOC and on into Mexico. Can't totally buy that idea right now, need more in-put. Stay dry!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
a blow off trail????
      #13469 - Mon Sep 29 2003 08:53 PM

Thats some blow off trail... I mean... IF that was going to happen then I would think the shear would be so strong that it wouldnt let the system form...

Is there a meteorological name for that?

Going to watch Monday Night Football...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: a blow off trail????
      #13470 - Mon Sep 29 2003 09:22 PM

yeah, but very little shear south of there. thats what we're looking for.. the low tightening south of the hostile environment to the north. elongated low axis now.. the piece that matters is over the yucatan between merida and campeche.
HF 0122z30september


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AlexK
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
blip of convection
      #13471 - Mon Sep 29 2003 09:51 PM

A little bit of convection is trying to build around the low level center. Will it stick?

And on a totally unrelated note-does anyone have estimates for the horrible damged caused by Isabel?


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: a blow off trail????
      #13472 - Mon Sep 29 2003 09:56 PM

Hey, I would be afraid to guess on that one Bobbi, but I am sure that if you put Lyons on the spot he would come up with something that sounds more offical. After all that's what he does best. Well, no matter what its called Bobbi, it's in your back yard!!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: a blow off trail????
      #13473 - Mon Sep 29 2003 10:07 PM

This stuff is looking much tamer tonight than this morning. I think the Mouse ears and Other storm interference stuff is in the works. We are going to see some rain, but I'll bet South of Central Florida Gets the most beginning in Sarasota County and further south. The trails of rain/clouds will split up once they Get to Tampa Bay. There is definitely something on each side of us that is keeping us somewhat safe,. A military base on one side, A space program on the other, and a World Entertainment Center in the middle. Who could begin to estimate the possible damage of a CAT 2 or above? I think I will stick to rain showers in my personal forecast.

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Latest models for ENSO are neutral until may 2004
      #13474 - Mon Sep 29 2003 10:32 PM

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

Steve here are the latest model runs for ENSO and show a continuation of neutral conditions until may 2004.So I think that if this trend continues we will see an active 2004 hurricane season.

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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Latest models for ENSO are neutral until may 2004
      #13475 - Mon Sep 29 2003 11:15 PM

hey cyc, nice stuff. ought to be helpful this november when everybody is trying to peg the storm totals for 2004.
funny that NHC upgraded kate to hurricane now that the convection is shearing off. guess that banding eye was legit.
90L is weaker than before, pressures in the region are higher overall than yesterday. a patch of subsidence is along the western coast of the yucatan.. being chewed away at, and probably blocking any deep convection from forming where the upper support is. still wait-see if anything can get going over there.. otherwise 90L will be unviable.
HF 0315z30september


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AlexK
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
90L fighting
      #13476 - Tue Sep 30 2003 06:39 AM

A big blowup of convection near the supposed center of 90L. Will it persist?

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