Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

One day I'm going to get in trouble, but I pay for this. I'd never give every day updates on what he says, but this is great. He's beatin' up on the TPC again:

TUESDAY EVENING ON TROPICAL STORM IN THE GULF
The recon has found a 1006 pressure with 50 kt flight level winds and 40 kts surface winds. Apparently knocked for a loop by this report, TPC has responded with the Special tropical disturbance statement and what I consider a moot argument about a front being in the area and so its not truly tropical. There is a front in the area, true. However the system is over 85 degree water with gales and 3 straight reports of a center. But the evidence that demands a verdict is below as the recon is ALSO REPORTING A WARM CORE CENTER! PLEASE EXAMINE THE EVIDENCE:

SEE THIS: I. 23 C/ 351 M J. 25 C/ 354 M

Here is what I means, from the TPC website: I. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL TEMPERATURE / PRESSURE ALTITUDE OUTSIDE THE EYE. This gives an idea of the general temperature surrounding the storm. "Standard" temperature at 700 mb (where we fly most hurricanes) is about -5 degrees Celsius, but in the tropics, it's usually 10 to 15 degrees warmer than "standard". What you especially want to look for is how it compares to the temperature inside the eye, in Item J or P. The example shows a temperature of 11 degrees Celsius (52 degrees Fahrenheit) at an altitude of 3082 meters (10,112 feet). The altitude is included because the airplane bumps up and down due to turbulence and other factors, and minor changes in the temperature may be due to changes in altitude.

Now here is what J means, from the TPC website: J. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL TEMPERATURE / PRESSURE ALTITUDE INSIDE THE EYE. This is yet another indicator of how "healthy" the storm is. One of the unusual features of a hurricane is that it is warmer inside the eye than outside. What you want to look for here is how much warmer it is than the temperature reported outside the eye in Item "I." A developing storm may be only a degree warmer inside the center, while a strong hurricane may be 10 degrees warmer. In this example, the eye temperature of 15 degrees Celsius (59 degrees Fahrenheit) is four degrees warmer than the temperatures immediately outside the eye. Be sure to look at the remarks in Item "P" to see if there was an even warmer temperature found inside the eye (but more than 5 miles from the fix position). The aircraft was at a pressure altitude of 3108 meters (10,198 feet).

Lets look again at what I and J are reported to be in our 1006 mb , 40 kt system

At flight level here is the ob: I. 23 C/ 351 M J. 25 C/ 354 M

J, the inside is warmer than I the outside. Yet here comes the reluctance to name the system causing gales over 85 degree water, with now 3 recons cutting off a center, and the center warmer than the outlying area.

Just what is the reason for this? The claim a front is around. The fact is the center and the structure is warm core, the report is there, and its defined in their own guidelines. Besides, there are many storms that have fronts around them. To me, The DATA, THE FACTS, SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES.

I have no changes on my perceived evolution of this the next few days

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