MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Kate, a long tracking, winding storm, has finally gone extra tropical and Larry landed on the mexican coast a few days ago, leaving nothing named in the Atlantic.
There sill is activity, though. East of the lesser antilles isa storm worth watching. And since upper level winds are becoming more favorible it is worth watching.
I also have to mention this link for all the collectors out there.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Current Aircraft Recon Info
More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
- [mac]
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Actually HF, my subscription is over. It shouldn't be because I don't get billed again until October 22, 2003. I called them yesterday and told them that this was the last cycle for the season I wanted. Utilizing the assumption that you must pay in arrears for the service, they cut me off (where I thought I'd have access until 10/21/03).
I did get to glance over the column and he still doesn't know what to do with the disturbed weather approaching the Islands. His take is that everyone in the islands needs to monitor the system because it is exhibiting the classic signs of getting better organized. If I read correctly, he's calling for 10"+ in or around San Juan, but I can't confirm it now  .
So I went to some of the models to see what their solutions were. AVN/GFS is at the same solution was at yesterday - coming out of the Islands and slipping off north. Some of the other models shunt something across Florida fron the SW in the 5-6 day time frame (would assume that's something else entirely). Others still have a South-Atlantic, out to sea solution. October is always weird.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Steve 10+?? I dont believe that this wave will be a deluge for Puerto Rico however we are expecting periods of heavy rain but not that kind of precipitation JB is saying.But let's see what happens as it crosses the island hopefully fast enough that those 10+ that JB says dont come.Thanks to that upper low in front of the wave that is south of Puerto Rico is why the wave hasn't developed.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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I'm not calling for that, but I'm assuming with some of the lee slopes on the islands that heavy accumulation could occur (including flash flooding) on any island. Those ULL's often are harbingers of development when they back away from a pending system, but I would assume that any serious development would be west of Puerto Rico.
Just the same, I hope you get some decent waves and gusts out the deal.
Peace,
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Hey guys,
looks like 'Kate' isnt done... well not as an storm. The low pressure area that was Hurricane Kate is currently a deep depression heading towards the north of the UK. At present the forecasts call for the centre of this 'storm' to pass off the north coast of Scotland early Friday morning (local time). There are already Watches out for winds gusting to 80 mph for northern parts of the UK associated with this system. Storm Kate is the first major Atlantic Storm of the Autumn/Winter season to affect us over here. Looks like there might be some disruption over northern parts but i will keep you posted
regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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i'm sure you guys can take it. it's what mel gibson would call 'fine scottish weather'.
next few days the development-interest zone is islands to bahamas and off the east coast..
its so easy to be skeptical, but a weak system running up from near hispaniola off the east coast by the weekend isn't implausible. of course, with the amount of basin shear and lack of any 'shelter' in the western caribbean it's hard to picture a big threat developing.. ever since the high that initially covered developing larry, that part of the basin has been under a predominantly nw upper flow and subsidence that has kept any of the musings about a florida threat from coalescing.
relatively quiet early october basin.
HF 2340z08october
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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That little wave in the Winwards is looking better tonight. I would not be suprised to see an Invest tomorrow.
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Jara
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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The disturbed weather in the islands is looking interesting from a layperson's view. I can not tell whether or not it is moving toward the US or not, but will be interested to see what comes of it. I have not read the discussion this morning because I want to try my hand at interpreting what I see on the net pictures before verifying it with the official report. Any one else do this? 
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.tjua.shtml
Puerto Rico will recieve plenty of rain from this wave but so far no LLC is seen in radar.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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The 8am TWD keeps eluding to a developing Low Pressure System in the Caribbean so it looks like they may be expecting it to develop some type of Low as the trough its been interacting with pulls out.
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Jara
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Looking at the 11am the agrees. The said it was moving NW which would appear to coincide with what the global models have predicted. As always, we shall see.
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Jara
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912003) ON 20031009 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
031009 1800 031010 0600 031010 1800 031011 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.6N 64.3W 17.0N 66.3W 18.7N 68.3W 20.5N 70.1W
BAMM 15.6N 64.3W 16.7N 66.5W 17.9N 68.6W 19.0N 70.5W
A98E 15.6N 64.3W 16.1N 65.5W 17.0N 66.9W 18.0N 68.4W
LBAR 15.6N 64.3W 16.6N 65.7W 18.0N 66.9W 19.2N 68.2W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 34KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 27KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
031011 1800 031012 1800 031013 1800 031014 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.1N 71.4W 25.9N 72.0W 31.6N 68.3W 37.1N 59.4W
BAMM 20.2N 72.2W 22.3N 74.7W 26.1N 74.2W 30.5N 70.3W
A98E 19.1N 70.2W 22.4N 72.3W 25.7N 71.5W 30.1N 67.0W
LBAR 19.9N 69.6W 20.5N 71.7W 22.7N 72.9W 26.0N 72.2W
SHIP 41KTS 50KTS 52KTS 48KTS
DSHP 33KTS 42KTS 43KTS 40KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.6N LONCUR = 64.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 63.1W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 61.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 420
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
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What is this test message supposed to mean?? 
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________2013 Forecast: 16/8/4________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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interesting.. guess we will have something to do this weekend
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BugsBunny
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 42
Loc: Florida
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From 5pm Outlook
A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE ISLANDS FROM PUERTO RICO SOUTHEASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY BE DEVELOPING...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR . THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD AND WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
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forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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nrl monterrey has a 'tropical cyclone formation alert' posted next to its image of 91L, tagged time 18Z. i guess 'well-organized' how more than one agency sees it. it's most likely going to moving nw out of the caribbean and then northward off the east coast, therefore doesn't look very threatening. how much of the energy propagates into the western caribbean, and what it does there... may turn out to be the more interesting story of the month. one of these pattern pulses should get something going over there, if october plans on doing the usual.
HF 2346z09october
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Pretty sure we're getting some of the upper or mid-level moisture that blew off Olaf a few days ago. Pecans are falling.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2089
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Seems like every season has its share of unusual storms and this one has been no exception. When a season starts in an unusual way (remember Ana), I often wonder if it will end in the same way. I've hinted at a possibility in the Storm Forum.
Cheers,
ED
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BugsBunny
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 42
Loc: Florida
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SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION
IS DEVELOPING ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...THE
CIRCULATION IS NOT YET WELL ENOUGH DEFINED TO BE CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM ON
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH AND
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON... IF NECESSARY.
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forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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Will it be Today? If so, will it go to the fish or to the Gulf? The wind shear looks like it is pretty stiff if you look at the cloud blow off on the NOAA satellite pictures from the TPC website. Either that or a little person is sitting up there on the satellite wiggling the camera. It does not really matter, rain is good. Who needs a dry October any way?
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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