Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Sunday Morning Update
Low level swirl of Mindy now fully exposed as southwesterly shear has moved convection off to the north and east. Maintaining Tropical Storm status is very generous at this point with no convection near the center, but convection may rebuild around the center again as was the case yesterday afternoon. Movement to the north and eventually northeast toward Bermuda.
Invest 93L looking much better organized this morning and I'd expect a Tropical Depression within 24 to 36 hours. Upper air anticyclone over or just north of the system should aid in development. Southerly shear ahead of the system is associated with the upper level high pressure - which should move westward with the system.
ED
Original Post
Late this afternoon Tropical Storm Mindy developed from a strong wave that moved from south of Puerto Rico to its current position just north of the central Dominican Republic. This morning visible satellite did show a few low level bands with a westerly component when the system was very close to the eastern tip of the DR, so the system was very likely a Tropical Depression for most of the day. This afternoon recon measured a central pressure of 1004mb - which has since fallen to 1002mb. Current winds are at 40 knots (perhaps even a bit higher). Additional strengthening to the 55-60kt range certainly seems possible, but I suspect that southerly shear will restrict Mindy to no greater than strong TS status.
Mindy continues to move to the northwest at 12 knots and Tropical Storm Warnings are in place for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos - which is somewhat interesting since the projected track takes the storm almost immediately to the north and north northeast. Mindy may nudge closer to the southern Bahamas before any significant turn to the north occurs, however, if intensification continues at the recent rate, the northerly turn would be likely to occur earlier. She may 'stair-step' a bit to the northwest, and kick up a brisk breeze in the southern Bahamas, before making up her mind to take the northbound train.
Convection in the Gulf continues to sag to the south southeast with nothing really organized - perhaps a focal point near 25.7N 89.1W, but really hard to tell. Another decent wave in the eastern Atlantic southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has some opportunity for slow development over the next few days as it moves to the west.
ED
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Current Aircraft Recon Info
More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Oct 12 2003 09:31 AM)
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islander
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: San Juan, PR
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And now 93L SW of the CV...wasn't the season over in that area???
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Yes Climo is against anything that may try to form in the east atlantic but this season odd things had happened so let's see what happens.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Place your bets....will we get one more CV Storm?
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Jara
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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This very interesting and informative post came from Storm2K.org and wxman57:
<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr>
As we've reached the 10th of October, there may be some folks out
there wondering if the threat from any strong hurricanes may be
over for the Atlantic basin this season. (I'm sure there's many
people in Bermuda, the U.S. mid-Atlantic states and Canada that are
hoping the season's over.) However, i think that the evidence
suggests that we will still have a low-latitude hurricane - likely
to be a major (Category 3, 4 or 5) - originating out of the Caribbean
before the season is over.
The reason for suggesting that we'll have yet another major
hurricane comes from a few lines of evidence. The first is that
since 1995 (when Goldenberg et al. suggest we've gone back to an
"active" major hurricane regime), we've had a late season (October
to mid-November) major hurricane every year originate out of the
Caribbean, except for during the severe El Nino of '97:
1995 - Opal and Roxanne
1996 - Lili
1997 - (None)
1998 - Mitch
1999 - Lenny
2000 - Keith
2001 - Michelle
2002 - Lili
There is no El Nino this year and the SSTs are once again quite
warm in the main development region, including the Caribbean Sea:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/atlsst.html
Thus we have both persistence of the last few years along with
large scale SSTs in support of such a system developing.
Another reason for expecting the mid/late October to early November
period to be active is the likely enhancing phase of the Madden-Julian
Oscillation (MJO). While the convective part of the is a bit
difficult to discern in this hemisphere, the changes in the upper
tropopheric circulation patterns can be seen. For example, the
following web site shows a time series of the 200 mb subtropical ridge
strength:
200mb subtropical ridge
What shows up strikingly here is the 50-55 day oscillation in the
ridge strength, with the last 20-25 days showing a relatively weaker
200 mb ridge at low latitudes. If the 50-55 day holds, then
an enhanced 200 mb ridge (along with weaker vertical shear) should
be in place from mid-October through about mid-November in the MDR.
The timing of this intraseasonal oscillation coupled with the long-
term enhanced conditions should produce a major hurricane originating
out of the Caribbean sometime between next week and mid-November.
Unfortunately, if this does occur, the results could be quite
devastating since Caribbean hurricanes almost invariably hit land
and impact quite a few people.
best regards,
chris
<hr></blockquote>
Thought there might be folks interested on this board that did not read Storm2k
(edited to reduce size of the html link)
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Jara
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Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Oct 11 2003 07:01 PM)
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Thanks SC for making that post! I think that Chris made some very interesting points. I mean we still have almost 6 weeks of the season left, plus history tells us that it is a real possibility. Let's hope that this is not the case as there has been so much devastation to come from these late season Caribbean canes...
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
Edited by 57497479 (Sat Oct 11 2003 06:11 PM)
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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This message is ominous and clearly a wake up call. We get too comfortable too quickly. Football season starts and our attentions get divided. Preparation is the key for minimizing danger.
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Thanks Ed for cleaning my post up!! You the man!!
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Jara
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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mindy isnt doing much besides posing a rough-weather threat to bermuda for tuesday. should stay within tropical storm intensity.
the low east of the delmarva isn't keeping down enough convection to do anything, agree with the assessment that it won't develop.
93L should shear out in a day or so.
the next development threat to look for is the western caribbean later next week, as the pattern may trigger something.
nicholas perhaps.. season might drag on just a little longer.
HF 0449z12october
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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Texas has a nice healthy cloud mass that looks to be moving into the Gulf. I guess Florida has a chance of seeing more rain off of it. 
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Looks like 93L might be defeating the shear ahead at least for now. 11am TWU eludes to the wave getting better organization. I think the poll is about 30% for and 70% against. We shall see.
93L Sat Loop
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Jara
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Looks to be consolidating the convection around an area of low pressure so let's see what happens with a possible late CV system that might develop.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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as 93L appears to be getting better organized, looks like my call on it yesterday was off. not there yet, but getting closer. if it develops, no worries, as the subtropical ridge of the summer is gone and a sw-ne oriented trough is in its way.
mindy is spinning down, nothing else of interest in the basin.
HF 2350z12october
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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yep, t-number now 1.0 on the disturbance.. quite possibly a tropical cyclone tomorrow. usually they don't develop that far out this late in the year.. but hell, didn't we get a depression down there in early june? thing is, even if this thing develops.. don't think we're done.. west carib has been too quiet.
HF 0156z13october
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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I just realized we could have a tropical storm Peter, then a tropical storm Rose,
Get it Peter Rose AKA Baseballs Pete Rose. lol
Thank You, Thank You. I'll be here with shows at 8 and 11 all week.
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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93L looking real good tonight, should be a depression soon., here's a link to the model tracks.
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/93LTRP.html
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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I think it already isa TD...though may be waiting to see if the trend continues.
Maybe another swell maker for us east coast surfers.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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i'm jumping the gun on this thing.. last night i said it would shear out today.. wrong.. early today i said it would simply recurve.. possibly also wrong. the upper trough ahead of it is progressive and breaking down, and a weak, flat ridge is splayed out from north of the islands east to the trough.. assuming this disturbance can get under the ridge.. it may actually move westward during the week. this of course is dependent on intensity and whether the trough breakdown is overforecast (when a developing system is nearby the feedback tends to keep troughs in existence, if not in place).
well, nicholas is looking possible.. so naturally troy is saying odette peter rose. i didnt even believe that this disturbance would be here tonight.. so somewhere in the back of my mind a voice is cheering the idea on.
but for now, lets see if nicholas pops out. i'm near my season numbers, 13-7-3 (currently at 13-6-3, close enough to make me happy). but, still near the secondary peak, so i probably bid low.. if this were a game of spades i'd be hurting real soon.
HF 0458z13october
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islander
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: San Juan, PR
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LOL  ...keep it going Troy...we all need to laugh a little bit more.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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What will it be later today still a strong wave,a TD or even a tropical storm.I say it will be a TD by 11 AM but a close call for it to be Nicholas at that time.Being at a low latitud it will be more slow the turn to the north so we here in the islands are watching closely.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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