Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2106
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Monday Evening Update
TD19 developed as anticipated and others have covered the analysis quite well, so no need to repeat it here. Looks like TD19's journey to TS Nicholas will be a little slower than I had originally anticipated, but the system will get there eventually. A weaker subtropical ridge will mean a slower forward speed, but I still have doubts that the trough at 45W will capture the system. The trough is compressing the ridge, but it has not yet divided it, so I'm still uncertain that the late period forecast track will have such a significant northward component. As for intensity, I think that we are still looking at a future hurricane. Each successive run of the SHIPS model has increased the intensity outlook for days 4 and 5. Even if it slips past the trough at 45W, its slower speed means that the anticipated significant trough has a much better chance of catching and turning the system before it could reach the northern islands - but don't stop watching yet!
ED
Original Post
I think so. Tropical low in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 37.5W at 13/12Z should become a Tropical Depression later today and Tropical Storm Nicholas on Tuesday. System has good upper air support. The pattern across the southern basin has changed. The western Atlantic trough has elongated, weakened and pulled northward with a developing southern ridge extending westward to 70W (eventually). Note that Mindy, or whats left of her, is moving eastward - north of the ridge axis - and is forecast to continue an east to east northeast movement.
Soon to be Nicholas will remain south of the ridge axis and move slowly to the west or west northwest. A bubble of high pressure aloft will move westward with the system and aid in its further development. Nicholas should reach hurricane intensity at least by Wednesday and is likely to pose a threat to the northernmost islands on Saturday - probably as a Cat I or Cat II storm, but intensity is still a tough call on a five day outlook.
The long range track depends on the development and timing of a polar outbreak hinted at in the global models. If the outbreak materializes and is ahead of schedule, the hurricane could turn to the north shortly after passing near the northern islands. If the developing trough ahead of the outbreak is slow to materialize, or is further to the north, or if the southern ridge intensifies (lots of uncertain variables in the extended outlook for this developing system), Nicholas could threaten the southern Bahamas in about a week. Climatology would suggest no real threat - but this system has the potential to modify some of that climatology.
Time to snap out of the doldrums and weigh in with your thoughts - looks like an interesting late season week ahead!
ED
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Current Aircraft Recon Info
More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Oct 13 2003 11:20 PM)
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Last week on a whim I started a poll on wether we would have 1 more CV storm. The results percentage wise are below. This morning, those 12 - 17% YES are looking good.
One more CV Storm? (Total Votes: 69)
Yes 12 - 17%
No 57 - 82%
I ought to comment on which way I voted but I am waiting to see if actually does get classified. Okay I voted YES but I reserve the right to take it back if it does not develop. 
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Jara
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Lisa NC
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
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when I saw the invest yeaterday I thought it was a mistake, a CV storm, its to late. Well, it will give us something to track and hopeful alot of enjoyment over the next week or so. He has a very organized cloud pattern. Much nicer than Mindy
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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The big qustion is if it will threat the islands as climo doesn't favor that but many things can happen as Ed said so we are watching from Puerto Rico and the rest of the islands.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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well... that would be fun cause i really love the unexpected and off the wall when it comes to "against climo"
have heard everyone say (on TV) that the CV season was pretty much over, closed, kaput so...
would be like Erin forming out there in the endless empty blue sea...
very nice and yes...nice to have one more long tracker
felt like the season was ending in some sort of empty way with no real sense of excitement, like time slipping away while we do errands and wanting to sort of scream and say WAIT... dont we have at least some climatic end point, something??
will see
for now an invest, cool
you do realize that means maybe this and a carib cruiser ..how far in the alphabet can we go?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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its a depression, of course. waiting for a banding eye to form again.. typical.
HF 1453z13october
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Sweet cloud swirl in the eastern Gulf today on visible. On IR, it's just a swirl, but it looks cool on visible. I think it's part of the remnants of one of the Pacific storms from last week that moved inland. I haven't researched wether it's former upper support, middle or low level, but it still looks cool. We saw a couple inches out of Olaf last week, so I'd guess this was something out of Nora if I had to put money on it.
TPS
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Our tropical disturbance/probably TD 19 is a rather interesting feature given the fact that it is October 19th. But the conditions ahead of the system are favorable and they should remain that way...so I have nothing to add to the general consensus that this system should intensify.
The potential track is kind of interesting as well. 93 should continue to the west for the next 4-5 days, then the uncertainty comes in about where (and if) and northward turn occurs. With the polar outbreak and associated strong trough of low pressure a lock to be near the EC in the 5-7 day range, odds favor this system being blasted to the north and northeast at some point. It should also be noted that MANY of the low-latitude October systems of the past have sported a tendency to move sharply north at some point. As a general rule...these types of systems usually don't get past Puerto Rico's longitude. This one could get further west than the "norm" before it turns, and if it does, things could get interesting for the Caribbean.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1088
Loc: fl
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Nice to see a late season TS forming in the cental Atlantic. The system will move slow and stay e of 55w for several days, after that a general NW movement then N to maybe scare the Bermuda region again ahead of next weeks eastern big trough. It should remain not a threat to there even until mid week next week.
I would watch the sw carribean over the weekend and into next week for development. Models dont show it yet but something would be in a good env to develop and head N next week to be the main area of concern for the U.S.
scottsvb 
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
MAJOR flare-up down there. If that convection persists, I'd expect it to be mentioned in the 5:30 PM .
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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From 2pm TWD:
TROPICAL WAVE 81W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION NOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...SOME OF IT WITH
THE ...AND THE REST OF IT MIGHT BE ENHANCED BY THIS WAVE.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM PANAMA TO 11.5N BETWEEN 78W AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60-90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 16N77W 14N81W 12N84W REACHING COASTAL NICARAGUA.
If it is moving off to the west then it will be in the EPAC before anything can develop.
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Jara
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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In reply to:
If it is moving off to the west then it will be in the EPAC before anything can develop.
Correct
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2106
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Invest 93L has become Noname 19L on the Navy Monterey site. Expect a Tropical Depression at 5pm.
ED
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Things are getting active again, the new depression in the Atlantic won't threaten anybody for days, if in fact it ever threatens as there is not much ridging and, it most likely will eventually become a fish. Think the disturbed area in the SW Carib has some potential to develop.
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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t.d. 19, check. scott already outlined the slow progress this system should make, so i won't go into it other than to say this thing should take days to go what an august system would do in 48hrs. it has a broad character and shouldn't develop too terribly quickly as the environment is fair to good, but not great. as with any deep tropical system, weaker it stays, further west it goes.
now, the western caribbean: there was very little there this morning, but during the day convection has become extensive. upper environment looks good.. but these october caribbean systems are usually expansive and take days to organize.. so my take on its chances for development are pinned on it developing a low that drifts wnw and starts deepening off the north coast of honduras later in the week. the pattern is going to start backing up as an eastern u.s. trough amplifies later in the week.. really i'm surprised as much convection has gone off in the sw caribbean with the flat, split jet pattern over the u.s. perhaps is amplifying it.
so, my take:
19L slowly deepens, becomes nicholas, moves mostly west over the next few days.. slowly accelerates.
disturbance in the caribbean will probably move over land.. if low pressure can make it to the north coast of honduras, then it may start spinning up. confidence is sketchy as the system looks robust, but hasn't had a chance to show persistance.
steve mentioned the low in the ne gulf.. it developed on the southern stream of our split jet pattern out of the energy from the eastpac tropical systems, then got left as the energy translated to the gale that was off the mid atlantic over the weekend. was earlier phasing this one in ahead of the next shortwave (deepening it quite a bit near new england) but subsequent runs have shown less and less of this.
mindy is still mentionable, i guess.. has all the tropical character that leslie in 2000 had.
HF 2249z13october
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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WOW, looks like the tropics is starting to pop again! It feels good to have something to watch and track. Looks like the Islands could see TD#19 but sounds like a lot will have to come together for the system to get too far west. The Caribbean has my attention something could eventually get it's act together there.
Bobbi, you summed it up nicely as far as the end of the season goes. It is way to early with several weeks still to go, for the season to come to such an abrupt end.
Thanks Ed, learned a new word from you today! I like that, had to look it up, its the perfect word, covers a lot of territory!!
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Gotta love the 's last discussion on Mindy and their Mork and Mindy spoof...or that silly "hey hey hey goodbye" song (as my roomate has pointed out to me)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2003
NANO NANO...NANO NANO...HEY HEY...GOODBYE. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING INDICATES MINDY IS A MERE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE
EXPOSED CENTER BECOMING INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP
FRONTAL-LOOKING CONVECTION TO THE EAST.
Edited by Domino (Tue Oct 14 2003 05:02 AM)
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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LOL Domino, that is funny! The does not do that too often, so most people can really appreciate their humor when they do. Even though we may be saying Good-bye to Mndy, I think we may be saying hello to another up comming system. The 5am forcast for TD#19 sounds like it may be going a little farther west. May not hitch that ride with the trough after all. That creates a real possibility that the Northern Islands may feel what ever he has in store down the road. Intensity seems to be up in the air a little bit, guess is playing it safe for now.
The Caribbean still looks unsettled this morning, don't expect to see any type of quick development there, but and area to be watched never the less.
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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Well it grabbed mine.
Nice to have something in Atlantic but when you pull up the water vapor it steals your attention away. Especially as it would aim itself at landfall somewhere were it to develop.
Meanwhile.... 19 is entertaining.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Not sure if we will see anything or not. Models have been hinting for days at development there but they are not jumping on this system, is good for development, and conditions are somewhat favorable. I guess we just wait and see.
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Jara
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