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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 45 (Nate) , Major: 62 (Maria) Florida - Any: 72 (Irma) Major: 72 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2003 News Talkback

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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 134
Loc: East Central Florida 28.33N 80.81W
Post Season Tropical Storm Odette forms in Caribbean
      #14030 - Thu Dec 04 2003 05:45 PM

Saturday Morning Update

Tropical Storm Odette has intensified during the night and is now on the move to the northeast to north northeast. Odette has sustained winds of 55 knots and a forward speed of 12 knots as she heads for landfall on the south shore of the Dominican Republic Saturday evening.

Santiago, DR link:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MDST.html

Extensive convection east through southeast of the center will bring heavy rain and wind over the DR and Puerto Rico for the next 18 hours as the system gains forward speed. Flash floods are likely on these islands. Odette should weaken considerably over the high terrain of the DR tonight and reorganize as she moves north of Puerto Rico on Sunday - becoming extratropical late Sunday into Monday as she zips off to the northeast into the open Atlantic and (finally?) brings and end to this long season.
ED

Original Post

Apologies for the lack of updates lately, with my new job I've had little time for the site. In any case, we've got an oddball post season storm, Odette. Formed in Decemember, complimenting an April storm earlier in the year, also out of season. With Isabel being the biggest event for the US.



It most likely will cause heavy rains and mudslides over Hispaniola, and I'll try to watch it as it moves northward.



NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Dec 06 2003 08:17 AM)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Hurricane Season
      #14031 - Thu Dec 04 2003 05:48 PM

Maybe now the NHC will consider starting the season earlier and ending it later...not. They should fix the TWO at least. It ended 11/30.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
Re: Hurricane Season
      #14033 - Thu Dec 04 2003 10:17 PM

Quite the surprise ending to this 'odd' season...Happy Holidays to each of you...see ya in 2004!!!!

k___g


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Hurricane Season
      #14035 - Fri Dec 05 2003 01:42 AM

every season is an 'odd' season, it will have its defining features. this one is perhaps a little 'odder' than usual as a whole, but mid-season wasn't that abnormal. except maybe for the duration of fabian and isabel. the april and december storms, and the level of activity into mid july were abnormal.
the real anomaly i'm always looking at is how much activity we've had over the last.. well, almost decade.. and how little in the way of severe hurricane activity. climatologically speaking things have been VERY odd.
well, 15 named storms again. olga in 2001, odette in 2003. ENSO neutral this year, too.. makes you wonder how damped the effect of ENSO is in this multi-decadal upswing. hmm.. speaking of that, gray should be releasing his seasonal forecast later on this fifth of december. wonder if odette will make headlines there?
HF 0642z05december


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LI Phil
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Season
      #14039 - Fri Dec 05 2003 11:52 AM

Cycloneye posted Grey's report in the Storm Forum for anyone who's interested...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Post Season Tropical Storm Odette forms in Caribbean
      #14044 - Fri Dec 05 2003 07:02 PM

For the few remaining tropical system diehards (like me), just a note that an update on Odette has been posted in the Storm Forum.

Saturday AM: Main Page has been updated.
Cheers,
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Dec 06 2003 08:19 AM)


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Post Season Tropical Storm Odette forms in Caribbean
      #14045 - Sat Dec 06 2003 08:00 AM

Preseason storm Anna and postseason storm Odette. Weird year.

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
odette goes ashore
      #14046 - Sat Dec 06 2003 07:12 PM

looks as if odette has chosen the long crossing of the island.. not lengthwise, but over the mountainous barahona peninsula prior to crossing the central massif in the dominican republic. often the death knell for weak mid-season systems, but since odette is out of season i doubt it will deliver a crushing blow. odette is not your average joe (or josephine) storm.
away to the east a complex low is cutting off in the central atlantic.. it should dive to below 25N, but well away near 40W. it is rare, but that sort of setup is what one would typically look for, as most late/post season systems tend to have non-tropical origins. a late season storm will occasionally originate out there, though i think odette has met and exceeded our december quota for the next few years. odette is the first system of purely tropical origin to form in december in quite some time.
something that did strike me is the record from the year 1887. a hurricane formed that year east of the bahamas at the end of november.. then succesively to its east another hurricane and a tropical storm formed just east of the caribbean islands. that was THREE active systems in a chain, extending out of season. not sure what kind of rare weather configuration allowed for that, but just knowing it will keep me looking for the next week or so to see if odette causes a secondary.
HF 0011z07december


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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
next on the agenda..
      #14048 - Mon Dec 08 2003 12:02 PM

that cutoff low has dived to near 21/38.. and has a convective core. it's moving over support SSTs (especially for a hybrid system) and has occluded well away from whatever frontal structure it may have had. on the 1pm est twd the NHC should have something to say about this besides 'gale center'.. it's deep in the tropics.
HF 1700z08december


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LI Phil
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
99L Invest
      #14049 - Mon Dec 08 2003 02:28 PM

Will the season ever end?

99L Invest



--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Dec 08 2003 07:56 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: 99L Invest
      #14051 - Mon Dec 08 2003 09:12 PM

down near 19/38 now. deep in the tropics now. the convective core within the larger circulation will probably make a cycloidal loop.. apparently the low is filling in spite of maintaining organization. twd now describing the gale center as a subtropical low.. even if advisories don't come it may be post-analyzed as a subtropical cyclone. ssd has it as a d2.5(s.t.). NRL monterrey has a 40kt gale. i don't expect that it will get much better organized.. it's an island of activity in a sea of hostility. if NHC doesn't call it soon it probably won't ever.
HF 0211z09december


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
poetic hank frank
      #14052 - Mon Dec 08 2003 09:18 PM

is that from a song or is that your own creation... beautiful, almost inspirational, love it

"it's an island of activity in a sea of hostility"

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: poetic hank frank
      #14053 - Tue Dec 09 2003 12:54 AM

poetic.. i wouldn't say that. real estate friendly to tropical systems is hard to come by in december. take a look at it on b/w water vapor.. it's a spot of white in a very deep black field, with a subtropical jet to the east. by the way it actually DOES look better organized with time, have a feeling the NHC will make have to make mention of this during the day tuesday. looks about as healthy is ana did back in april.. and it's not over sixty degree waters either. i'm going to say it just because somebody needs to--peter.
HF 0552z09december


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Invest 99L
      #14054 - Tue Dec 09 2003 07:33 AM

Right you are HF - it deserves to be noted. Looks very tropical this morning with good banding and convection. NRL still carries it at 40kts and 1004mb. AVN/GFS and NOGAPS weaken the system while slowly moving it westward. If it were May it would be a subtropical storm - its worthy of that, but I'd be surprised if its classified this late in the season given its location.
Cheers,
ED


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Tropical Storm PETER
      #14055 - Tue Dec 09 2003 09:39 AM

P P can someone update this board

hello...when was the last time there was a P

come on...tell me

Bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Tropical Storm PETER
      #14056 - Tue Dec 09 2003 10:06 AM

Bobbi:

1995-made it to Tanya

Hard to believe there have been 2 December storms (and 1 in April).


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Since you asked
      #14057 - Tue Dec 09 2003 10:27 AM

Brad, you beat me to it. 1995 had PABLO, ROXANNE, SEBASTIEN and TANYA. WOW! So it's rare, but it's not unprecedented. BTW, Tanya formed in late OCTOBER!

Check it out - 1995

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
late comers
      #14058 - Tue Dec 09 2003 10:44 AM

still astronomical fall, but we're now in early winter climatologically--and that's two. that old 13-7-3 call for the season is now fairly well trashed.. unless you cut off the out of season storms... but they count too. think i'll call it a little differently than NHC (peter that is).. first off i might have called it a subtropical storm.. this is one of those clear instances where there isn't much deep convection and the origin is obviously non-tropical.. in spite of the low latitude. it shouldn't decay quite as models predict, but do a modest amount of strengthening inside of it's protective bubble (formed inside an upper trough.. usually not a very safe place, but about the only place possible this time of year). think peter will move nnw today, bending nne with time.. initially slow but accelerating drastically. it will be moving with the general upper flow but not running into one of those strong jets in the short term. SSTs will fall off well below what would normally support a tropical system.. but as the storm is hybrid it shouldn't matter a great deal. peter will probably shear out thursday or friday.. models have another deep layer low originating near 30/30 by the weekend (water there is significantly colder, so doubtful this one could occlude and incubate another tropical system), which will probably entrain peter and possibly odette's frontal energy which is migrating to the same general location. should make an impressive ocean storm if nothing else.
okay now, after this one we've GOT to sign off for the season. this time there REALLY shouldn't be another.
HF 1543z09december


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: late comers
      #14059 - Tue Dec 09 2003 11:03 AM

Check out this Visible of Peter: Looks like a CAT 3, even tho it's only a TS.

Peter

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
special advisory
      #14060 - Tue Dec 09 2003 12:01 PM

nhc just issued a noon advisory: storm is developing an eye feature... stronger than earlier assumed. intensity was adjusted to 60kt/990mb. say they may upgrade to a hurricane later.
looks like they jumped on the bandwagon a little late. it was a subtropical storm yesterday.. but i guess that's for post-analysis now.
HF 1700z09december


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