HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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earlier when we had visibles, you could see a complete (if broad and asymmetric) center moving nne just east of acklins island (the crooked looking island in the se bahamas). when you have a situation like that, surface winds within the normal parameters for a depression, and a convecton (sheared or not) with a tropical-originating system.. you've got the usual definition of a tropical cyclone.
broad and sloppy multi-vortex systems get classified in the gulf all the time (almost every year, in fact).. when they're twelve to twenty-four hours from the texas coast. the corollary does not apply to a system moving into the open atlantic. this isn't a situation that involves the creation of panic.. you'd think they'd be less reluctant to classify it. i'm sure that joe b is pulling what's left of his hair out over at Accuweather.
HF 0106z25may
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troy
Unregistered
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quick scat at 3:45 UTC May 25th showed what looked like a circulation center. not sure at what level though
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scottsvb55
Unregistered
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winds in the area are sustained around 15-20mph with only some gusts around TS. wont upgrade this until they would find winds closer to 25-30 sustained, there is a better defined center today as i expected but still needs TS near the center of low pressure and alittle higher winds. scottsvb
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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System looks its best tonight. It was probably worthy of more mention than it got if not any specific classification. The ideas were there from last Monday, but as noted last night, timing was the primary factor with this system. I have to give all of the global models credit for sniffing out the potential from several days out. They weren't exact, but they all demonstrated ability in a transitional season, something you won't always find with them.
For HF - Joe B didn't really say anything about it today other than mentioning it with the Gil Clark "bursting theory" and that it would probably head off to the NE. He's been pimping the warm water off the Carolina coast as a GOM signal and later year potential NE threat (to be continued). He's also mentioned for a few days that the Gulf of Mexico after next week would be the place to watch following a trof split after Memorial Day. FWIW, he's only noted the pattern, not any potential effects.
TPS
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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This is a pretty tripped out story (found the link at jimw's site). Our gov't didn't get too excited over this system, but there have been scores of deaths.
Lotso Deaths
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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first of all the doesnt classify based on quickscats or there would have been several named tropical storms far out in the atlantic that didn't even get tropical depression classification
and then...in the Gulf...there was Earl..
Yes, the Gulf gets more respect than a storm racing off to the NE in the Bahamas in pre-season.
And...racing is the key word here too...the system is moving fast and has covered a lot of geography since we were watching it south of haiti ..
also both the system and the whole atmosphere is very dynamic and very fluid the last 24 hours
persistence of color and circulation is the key for the as mentioned many times by Hope.. like to see it do the same thing for 24 hours before they jump on the bandwagon
they watch... they stare... they don't jump
so my question is not what does it look like at 5am... but what will it look like at 11 am when the visibles have been consistent for a while and they have had their breakfast and played with it a while
as for the deaths down there... thanks for the link, haven't heard much about it on the news
but figured they would have problems because it was my first thought that the main reason the released that special statement a few days back was because they wanted to warn of such a scenario and did...
"AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. HEAVY RAINS
OVER THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. "
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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System looks decent this morning but the key is where is a surface low in that area.I also would like to see some ship reports to see if they find high winds and the pressures how they are there.Here in Puerto Rico one person died after being swept by a river.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Ok there it is the invest and I see that the surface low is not beneath the convection. Some ships have to report from the area to see how the winds are blowing in terms of more or less strong.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Tue May 25 2004 11:48 AM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Very nice to see the invest.
I think the system isn't stacked properly which is par for the course for may bahama systems anyway... unless the strongest convection is over the low pressure reports it won't classify as tropical
and you'd think that in that area ship reports would not be that hard to come by.. maybe later today
thanks for the analysis
bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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worthy of debate.. i mean looks as good as christopher or eduoard or whichever those storms were last year... need some coffee, just saying seen some lopsided tropical storms classified... think the question they are having is ..is it tropical or not
looking at ghcc infared, pretty
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Our disturbance has now been moved to the special features catagory on the TWD this morning. But no mention on any kind of development yet.
SPECIAL FEATURE...
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH FROM 25N66W TO 1010 MB SOUTHERN BAHAMAS LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N74W. TROUGH CONTINUES FROM LOW CENTER TO HAITI NEAR 18N72W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 63W AND 72W...OVER GREATER ANTILLES AND OTHER NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...AS SURFACE WIND FLOW MOVES TOWARD THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS MOVED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 79W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WITH A RIDGE...IS IN THIS AREA. THIS FEATURE IS SEEN CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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351
NOUS42 KNHC 251400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 25 MAY 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z MAY 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-001
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
A. 26/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 26/1400Z
D. 30.0N 65.0W
E. 26/1800Z TO 26/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
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Jason Kelley
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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So Jason, is this Alex?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hey bobbi,
I agree with you post. They shouldn't call it something that it isn't. I would never dispute that. But just the same, the lack of mention (outside of Sunday's STDS) can lull anyone into a false sense of security. I don't know what word we got out to the DR or Haiti, but as of this morning, the death toll is into the several hundreds. That's extreme by even hurricane standards.
Death Toll Reaches Several Hundred
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Dunno yet....certainly wouldn't bet against it...
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Jason Kelley
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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The ULL over S FL. is providing the shear and blocking mechanism to the system.I would not doubt a classification of a depession maybe but not storm I think.Last year it was ULL's all over the place playing havoc with the systems in the Carib and GOM.This shear that has been present is this the part ofa normal cycle?(other than the ULL)
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troy
Unregistered
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lois i dont remeber saying it should or should not be classified
only making an observation of winds .
geeze
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Note the well defined swirl of clouds east of the Bahamas - it seems to have formed quite recently. GOES storm floater
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Steve Hirsch.
Unregistered
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Yes, the visible sat loop shows the circulation heading east. Looks like one of those systems that may head east, then drift off to the southeast and hang out a bit. Hope not, since it could spell more rain for PR/DR if it draws up more moisture and strengthens a bit. hhhmmm.
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Check out how much the gulf is heating up!  SSTs
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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