James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Check out this visible loop - there definately seems to be a circulation forming, and what's more, it appears to be moving out into the open Gulf.
Mexican Coast Crawler
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lois
Unregistered
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Shear is very strong right now from more than one direction. Air is diving down out of the north and coming out of the sw. There may be an illusion of twisting but I don't believe it has any real circulation..and any attempt to twist would be hindered by its current location in a shear zone.
Infact, if I remember right people were insisting shear would lessen across the Gulf and Carib basin and just the opposite happened.
Wondering whether or not we are going to have devasting conditions from another unnamed system like earlier in the year.
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lois
Unregistered
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While as said there might be some mid-level activity what looks like a long band is really blow off as the air rushes down from the north.
Also.. the same effect enhances blow ups or what give the impression of a lot of color in the SW Carib but its really clouds and storms being blown fast away.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
would be hard to get something stacked with this going on
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lois
Unregistered
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If you check out the following sites you will see that whatever is going on there is of an upper level feature and not a low level one.
upper level winds: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wvir.html
low level:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8ir.html
lastly, conditions in sw carib most hostile:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Hey guys,
just thought i would post about that circulation on the Mexican coast, but it seems plenty of others have beeten me to it 
The 18Z surface analysis does not indicate a significant feature in this region, yet it seems pretty well developed in the upper levels. Any chance the circulation could work down to the lower levels? And as it seems to be moving off the Mexican coast and into the Gulf, will it enter a more favourable environment? Guess we will have to wait and see.
Also noticed the large thunderstorm complex down in the SW Caribbean. Think this area has a reasonable chance given that there has been something in this general region for days now!
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I suppose anything could develop if it waited long enough for the wind shear to die down. Its amazing to watch these little systems this early in the year. I seem to remember that the little storms like these were kind of few and far between last year except for the wave that made it across the pond early and got everyone highly excited.
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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very tempting mcc has been noted several times today in the western gulf. not only that, it drifted offshore, has enough mid-level torque to catch the eye, and some the fanning from thunderstorm outflow.. that it has the appearance of an idling tropical cyclone. i suppose if its there tomorrow it will need lots of attention, but as of now it's just eye candy.
combination of a bit too much shear and a bit too strong low-level easterlies keeping all that mess in the w. caribbean from doing anything. that log-jam look it has means that it would otherwise be trying to do something.. since modeling suggests things will be getting gradually better down there over time, the area in general has a little bit of potential a few days ahead.. nothing for now.
outside of that, central atlantic longwave trough is letting some mid-latitude weather get down there.. anything that cuts off when the pattern progresses (nothing very signifcant on the globals as of yet) might be worth watching.
but of course, today is june 9th. it's early for much to happen.
HF 2311z09june
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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nothing in modeling going out on a limb, so of course this is doubtful.. but all that convection in the w. caribbean is being enhanced by divergence aloft. that stimulus should continue, and migrate northward.. once it gets out of the stronger low-level easterly flow it has a chance at getting a surface feature. that shouldn't happen before the weekend or later. some model hints at the energy phasing up the east coast, but nothing going crazy with it in terms of development.
HF 2319z09june
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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After looking at a few satellite loops, I think its safe to say that the swirl coming off the Mexican Coast isnt just an illusion, it definetly looks like a mid-upper level feature swirling its way into the Gulf. Only problem as ya'll have been discussing is the amount of shear that exist. Unless the shear weakens rapidly I dont expect this feature will cause any problems as far as development goes. I hate these early season blob's that are always around. They have to be the hardest things to actually forecast. They can develop or go poof in a matter of hours. But thats what makes trackin storms and hurricanes so much fun. Good Day All
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Steve unplugged
Unregistered
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Exactly right H/F. All that shear is the result of an Upper Low at the vortex of an upper trof peeling off to the SW. As of Monday, ridging was expected to build over the gulf toward the end of the weekend leaving anything left in it with a free ride to do whatever it wants to. But I haven't looked at any extended range 500mb charts lately. I'll try to take a look tonight if possible.
FWIW, remained negative for the 3rd straight day (and first time since April) probably in response to all the tropical action in the Westack. Bastardi's Gil Clark "Pulsing" teleconnection doesn't work with a negative , only a positive one. However, the tracks for the two West PAC systems are very interesting. We got to look at plenty of far west activity there last year, some of which preceeded Texas hits.
SW Caribbean has more convection today than it has for a week. I knew the last stuff wasn't going to last 7-10 days as it got pulled up toward Texas over the last 2 or 3 days. The stuff down there now should be able to ride around the NE side of the ULL as it backs off SW and open an avenue into the eastern gulf for an increase in moisture (if nothing else).
Steve
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Read thru all the posts tonight..total denial. If not for John Wilkes Booth Lincoln would have lived.
There is shear, live with it. Deal with it.
It's too early.
night guys... oh and coleen and any other girls round here
see a shrink or pop some chill pills
Rx for Denial
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Are all (or any) of the mets/strong posters (that's you HF & Steve) convinced we're free of any Gulf (or anywhere else) nonsensical chances at least 6/20-ish & beyond? Not 'cause I'm still harbouring thoughts of a 6/14 system (why did I just write that in "british english"?), Seems we could get a rogue storm fairly soon if the mischief off of Mexico gets organized.
Cheers & Peace,
LI Phil
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Jun 10 2004 12:59 AM)
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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My thinking was we would see at least an invest in the GOM around the 17th. That may get pushed back but I think we will see "something" this month.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>Are all (or any) of the mets/strong posters (that's you HF & Steve) convinced we're free of any Gulf (or anywhere else) nonsensical chances at least 6/20-ish & beyond?
It's a tossup, but I think something's going to try to go once upper ridging sets up in the Southern Gulf. I checked out some of the upper air charts and they are less conclusive than what they were Monday, but the opportunity for a go will be there in the next few days as that ULL clears the picture. We're going to have to wait and see how everything evolves.
In the meantime, Texas has been getting swamped by deep flow. We caught a break here today in SE LA dodging the rain for the first time in about 2 weeks.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Btw, I found the new link to High Res SST site out of Naval Oceanographic Office in Mississippi. I'd been looking for it since they changed the site over the winter. You might want to update your link.
https://128.160.23.54/products/OFA/gsscofa.gif
Enjoy.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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There's an interesting (but probably short lived) area of convection off the SC coast this morning. As I said, probably short lived, but something to watch anyway.
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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 69
Loc: Florida Big Bend
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Goes to James....looks interesting, and there is the hint of a circulation forming, convection is holding together---in past Junes, this area has often bred the first storm. Of the morning line-up, this is most promising. Low shear, lots of good wv imagery....if it is still there this pm, and has held it's own/improved in organization, this may be 'it'.
Elsewhere:
W Carib convection looks a little more interesting this am, there is some curvature, some outflow, it just is beginning to have that 'look'. Climo is a go; shear needs to lessen; and, "to the good", as HF stated, it is moving out of the strong easterly belt. Could at least be a rainmaker. Same story as SC blow-up--let's see what is there this pm ...
Impulses come and go on MX coast..the MCC (Mexican Coast Crawler--grin) evaporated in the aforementioned shear (no denial here!!), and it is still ripping there....looks like another impulse might be forming up. No joy expected there.
Finally---another wave approaches the islands and another impressive wave moves off Africa. June--too soon.
On another note, in TLH we had a fierce thunderstom on the northside last night---pretty awesome...I didn't go far enough back in the loops to see if the MCC off SC was the same that blew us up last night (was in town working, and I got soaked and (lightning) stroked!)
Have a happy Thursday////if the SC complex hold together--I may call the ball this pm or evening--stay tuned!
sc 
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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 69
Loc: Florida Big Bend
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Hmmm, looked carefully at the loops--looks like there is more shear off SC than I thought, system is waning a bit, but, the big thing I noticed is there IS some sort of circulation trying to form , with a convective cluster in attendance and apparently growing, north of Honduras....stay tuned...
sc
Edited by summercyclone (Thu Jun 10 2004 02:10 PM)
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Still clinging to that 6/14 call, a taste of Mr. Bastardi:
"The pot may start to boil in the Gulf early next week. The upper low near the Yucatan is splitting and backing. The wave, should it survive, will be in area that will be well ventilated by Sunday. In addition, the next trof splits again coming southeastward. The point is that tomorrow is June 10th and the Gulf may have to be watched as we go into the weekend into early next week."
If we don't get something next week, we may not get anything until July.
Cheers & Peace,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Tony
Unregistered
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Thanks for the info. Any idea what part of the Gulf *may* be affected *if* the wave survives ?? Thanks !!!!!!
Tony
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