Storm Cooper
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No access since this AM. The site seems to have it's problems every season.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Storm Cooper
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http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
You can go this route to so far.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
Edited by Storm Cooper (Thu Jun 03 2004 09:44 PM)
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LI Phil
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That link didn't work either
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Storm Cooper
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Sorry... it did just before I posted it but not now... the Invest was still there then.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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James88
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Has anyone else had trouble accessing the National Hurricane Centre website? Every so often it won't open, and then a couple of hours later it is working fine.
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hurricane_run
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thats been happenig to me for the last couple of days. i cant get anywhere near it. then i try back later and i get there fine
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Storm Cooper
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I also had a little trouble w/ but can access again showing the Invest.... not much but a little flare up exiting the coast.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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LI Phil
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Take a look at this full basin shot of the Atlantic:
full basin view
Check out that huge wave about to exit Africa. Wonder if that will amount to anything...I know Dr. Gray has discounted the West Sahel connection, but it has been extremely wet. Could portend for a more active season.
Looks like Joe B is right with his prediction that the southern storm will bomb out up the coast. Whereas my weather forecast up until this afternoon was for bright & sunny skies on Saturday (I'm going to the Belmont Stakes-Go Smarty Go), now it's supposed to be rainy and cold. Who says he doesn't catch things days in advance? I'm not happy about it, but it was good to have the heads-up on Tuesday.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Perhaps I can help a little with this one. I'm probably giving away a little meteorological trade secret, but I'm sure that may of you might find it to be a useful piece of info. The coordinates with many other meteorological agencies in this country and with other met organizations in other countries as well. When an area of interest is noted in the Atlantic (and east Pacific) basin, asks to start an Invest on the area of interest and also provides with the centerpoint coordinates (lat/long) for the area. In this case, the area of interest does seem to have a small center of circulation (tropical low) associated with it - which means that it could have some future potential. Remember, many Invest areas don't amount to anything and the Invest is dropped after a day or three. However, if something does eventually develop, the will have an early 'track' record on the system to aid in future projections. Often a tropical low may be so weak that it is not picked up by the more globally oriented models, so the Invest 'track' gives the a head start toward a forecast for future movement. Many tropical meteorologists use this technique (myself included). As the system moves toward the 'edge' of the Invest area, a new set of coordinates are sent to - and this can be annoying when a time-lapse sequence of the system seems to 'jump' to a new location halfway through the loop.
NHC also advises (and other agencies) in advance when they intend to upgrade the Invest to a Tropical Depression (NONAME) or from a TD to a named system (Tropical Storm). Sometimes will upgrade their tropical site to reflect these changes before the has issed the upgrade bulletin - which lets meteorologists know (TWC, Jason, ED, etc.) that a change is forthcoming 
There are many other factors which may prompt an Invest, but sometimes its just a desire to take a closer look at an area of interest. Hope this helps.
I also have observed some downtime on both the and sites (especially ) in the past couple of days. At 04/00Z the tropical low was near 8.5N 23W. When you enlarge the thumbnail image from , make sure that you look at the timestamp of the image. Often, the enlarged thumbnail will be an image that is more current than the small thumbnail or the full screen enlarged view.
Cheers,
ED
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LI Phil
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Ed,
Thanks for the info on invests. I spent the better part of an hour today trying to find the answer and was stymied. I figured you or Jason or C-Eye would have the answer.
With that being said, what would you rate the chances on this Invest developing into anything?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Actually, the chances are rather slim - but I learned long ago that anything is possible when it comes to tropical systems. Its still early in the season and the environment closer to the Caribbean is still pretty hostile.
Cheers,
ED
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Cycloneye
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Ed that was a complete explanation about how the invests are up and how it works.About this 92L invest the discussion says significant wave that caused 4-5 mb pressure drops in western Africa and that is interesting.Let's see what happens with it but I dont see anthing developing from it however regardless what happens it shows that we may be seeing an active Cape Verde season comming late July,August and September.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Fri Jun 04 2004 01:48 AM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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I think that you may be right - we may be seeing early signs of a more active Cape Verde season. A few months ago I had mixed feelings about that, however, Africa has become quite active in just the past couple of weeks. Most of the waves over Africa are still a bit too far south - generally below 10N. Another 5 degrees further north on these and I'll really start to pay attention, however, I am keeping a close eye on the developing wave over Africa near 13N 32E. It will be interesting to see how it evolves as it crosses Africa during the next week.
Cheers,
ED
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Cycloneye
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Yes ED that one looks impressive inside Africa but let's see when it hits the water what it will do but probably will weaken however again an active CV season in on the making?
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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LI Phil
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Agree with Ed that these waves are probably too low to amount to anything, but check out the absolute monster poised to exit the coast:
african wave
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LoisCane
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Thanks. I had heard something like that once..but I was never sure how much was true. About requests from . Makes more sense and helps to understand the noname change just prior to upgrade that almost always is relied on round here as Gospel.
Anyway...thanks.
As for the positioning of the invest..maybe they should just leave it there.. one will most likely take. New one is awesome. And... notice its really not so low.. just in position.
Remember years back Dr. Hope would always make a big deal about Senegal and the beach .. Dakaar and waiting for waves to roll across that spot before they are viable and they are really pretty much there already .. in early June.
Makes you remember those storms like Donna an a few in 1995/96 that were spinning wildly as they came off the African Coast.
thanks Bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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HanKFranK
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hmm... nice info there ed. i thought worked more independently of .. i can recall at least one instance where numbered a depression and never followed up... must have been a sudden change of opinion in that case.
energetic waves in june have in recent years spawned the odd tropical depression (2000, 2003). scatterometer data suggested that both actually crossed the tropical storm threshold, but is less interested in naming transient systems that may/may not be and will most likely open back up when they hit a pocket of shear... can't say i blame them.
92L has the look to me of one of those systems that falls to bits within 36hrs off the coast. maybe we'll get another odd invest with a follow-on wave. same result unless the and subtropical ridge buck up a bit more to the north.
bastardi's rogue system looks like one of those late season wannabe noreasters, more-so than a semi-tropical one. newer modeling has it moving more poleward, staying more onshore, and phasing in with a shortwave.. not a develpment scenario.
best chance right now for something is what steve alluded to. a week from now in the gulf. upper flow realigns, creates some good divergence.. any low level energy that happens by finds a good environment.. typical story. details iffy, of course.
HF 0304z04june
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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I think that its fair to say that actually is autonomous, but they work closely with , CPHC. , etc., so that everybody can be on the same page. They (and ) have a big responsibility for our military ships at sea - and thats a lot of oceans!
Cheers,
ED
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James88
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Looks that that wave is already falling apart over water. I guess it is just too early. East Atlantic satellite
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Spike
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Yea. It seems like it fell apart quite a bit ealier.
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Patrick
God Bless America
Be proud of your Country!
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