James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
I suppose we shouldn't forget that sea temperatures are an important contributor to an active CV season. The SSTs in the Eastern Atlantic have been falling for a couple of days now. On Wednesday Cycloneye said that you need to pay attention to trends in temperature - could this cooling be a new trend or do fluctuations like this occur normally?
|
joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
|
|
Not much to look at this morning, really only two areas of interest. The CV season is still a month away if you ask me, but I agree the waves are showing alot of energy for this time of the year, even if they are still a little too far south. It looks like their could be some long trackers this year.
The other is south of PR; one wave has survived the trip across somewhat intact and will be south of Jamaica in two or three days. If I had to point at any area and say maybe something will happen, that would be the one. It at least might provide some energy to stir the pot early-mid next week in the gulf.
On a local note, we've had 3-5 inches of rain arcoss NE Fl in the first three days of June, easing the very dry and hot weather we were stuck in. Should return to a more normal mode by Monday, but may start picking back up by the end of next week, so says the NWS at Jax.
Enjoy your day
Joepub1
|
James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
I agree with your opinion that the CV season is still a month away. They can form early - remember Bertha in 1996 (which formed on July 5th). If the waves that keep emerging from Africa keep their strength up for a few more months, it could be a very interesting season...
I can't help but think of 1995 - 5 CV hurricanes - could something similar be in store for this year?
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
It's a great wave.. made it across the wind shear zone and sprung back a bit to life. Been waiting to see if it makes it to the favorable area for this time of year....its almost there. Been watching this wave for days.. not many this tenacious.
Some waves seem to be "rooted" more than others... they pulse up and down and almost go away but there is something that "sticks" and keeps connected til they are in a better spot.
For instance.. many sources describe Camille as a storm that came out of a Cape Verde wave though most sites don't show it as traveling that far. I've seen the tracks done both ways.. things go a long way sometimes and don't form until they get half way til where they are going.
Don't see any Camilles on this weeks horizon.. just a comment.
CV... have two things to say..
1.. water temps arent there yet
2.. watch the SAL sites... there is dust out there though not as bad as some years..this is all part of the recipe out there every year... but there is a pocket of dry air that the waves have to traverse (a drop north of the waves) and still .. temps are not high enough to keep the fire on to keep them boiling..
takes a lot to get one of those cape verde beauties, doesn't it?
have a great weekend everyone
Bobbi
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Not much new from Joe B. He's still keen on development in the Gulf on or after June 10. "A fairly strong tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic, along 25 west, south of 15 north, moving west. The tropical wave along 64 west, south of 17 north will continue west, and bring showers and thunderstorms to eastern Caribbean islands in the next 24-48 hours. A tropical wave is located along 94 west, south of 17 north; it is this system that is producing the large amount of convection, or thunderstorms, in the eastern Pacific." from Accuwx tropical summary.
Looks like those African waves are just too far south to amount to anything, but they sure do keep trying. Likes like C-eye may be getting some more rains in the next couple of days. Hope you don't if you don't need them.
Cheers & Peace,
LIP
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Storm Cooper
User
Reged:
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
|
|
It's early but the 12Z run tries to get a little something going in Gulf in a few days. Lets see if the others follow 
--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
|
stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
Now the Models are chiming in on a possible GOM system. It is that time of year and there is consistency in that thought what with SSTs, Climatology, Bastardi and now Models all sensing something.
The energy is obviously in place as we got slammed here in Central FL yesterday. I'll spend the weekend cleaning up tree limbs and watching the Gulf. We needed rain but not all in 1 hours time. 
Take care.
--------------------
Jara
*************************************************************
|
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
|
|
Cooper do you have a link to that run? Let's see if what many people are saying about some development in the GOM by next week comes thru but the wave located now in the eastern caribbean is the one to watch in comming days if it survives the trajectory thru the caribbean.
--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
The 18ZJun14 model places somethiing just off the coast of Southwest Florida...which then moves it across the peninsula and bombs it up the NE coast. I'll post the link from Accuweather pro, but not sure if non-registrants will be able to access it. If you can't, other sites have the modeling.
http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/professional/models_grads.asp?mt=06&mod=AVN&mv0=apcpsfc&cap=MSLP,%206-Hour%20Precip,%20and%201000-500mb%20Thickness&hr=LOOP&step=2&gs=mslp_pcp_thk&uid=&map=conus&gv0=A
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Storm Cooper
User
Reged:
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
|
|
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
|
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
|
|
Thanks my friend.
--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
|
summercyclone2
Unregistered
|
|
I don't see any bombs, or anything in the Gulf??
sc
|
James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
Nothing there at the moment, but I reckon it can support something. As Stormchazer said, the energy is obviously in place. SSTs have increased significantly in the last few weeks, and there seems to be a decent amount of moisture there. All we need is a system to survive the unfavourable conditions elsewhere and break through into here. Perhaps that tenacious wave in the Caribbean will...
|
Storm Cooper
User
Reged:
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
|
|
The 12Z AVN/GFS is looking like the w/ something possible in the GOM in a few...
--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
|
James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
While the focus over the next few days will be on the GOM and Caribbean, cast a look to the east. After commenting on the unusually strong waves coming off of Africa, it looks like things there may be slowing down temporarily. There doesn't seem to be anything special poised to emerge into the Atlantic. Perhaps just a temporary lapse.
|
Spike
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 221
Loc: Central, Florida
|
|
It doesnt seem to be anything special... but with weather you never know. Weather can be very unpredictable. 
--------------------
Patrick
God Bless America
Be proud of your Country!
|
James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
That's what makes it interesting!
Looks like the E. Pacific disturbance hasn't amounted to much (yet). That's something to watch over the weekend.
Edited by James88 (Fri Jun 04 2004 07:35 PM)
|
Spike
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 221
Loc: Central, Florida
|
|
Yea. We should keep an eye on that. And yes hehe that is what makes it very interesting and exciting!
--------------------
Patrick
God Bless America
Be proud of your Country!
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Man, these African waves never stop...three more about to exit the coast. As with the others, they probably won't amount to much, but you have to wonder if this portending an early start to the CV season, and an active one to boot.
more african waves
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
|
|
there still some time for that e pac disbance well see wont we
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
