MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The Gulf is finally starting to look better this morning... more to come later 
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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The forecaster said, "MSAS analysis show a SFC reflection with this feature as well with a weak closed SFC low possibly forming just off the tpa coast. Lastest radar supports a possible low/mid lvl center forming...as notable cyclonic turning is seen in radar echoes west of tpa."
This discussion was done at 3 AM last night. I've run some loops and looked at a recent QUIKSCAT pass and it does appear we have a very weak surface low just west of tampa that is closed off. The convection that is forming out there also looks to be very circular in it's organization...this one may develop into a TD by late tommorrow or Monday but there are question to be asked:
1. Does it holds it's convection at night?
2. Does it keep developing convection?
3. Does the low strengthen causing significant pressure drops and wind increases at GOMEX buoys?
4. Most importantly: DOES IT STAY AWAY FROM LAND?
I believe we may have a hurricane on our hands here eventually but there are those four questions that will have to be answered. Today and tommorrow (Monday will be very important if it develops) should bring us answers and possible rapid development.
Interesting to see how the situation flip-flopped here...we have the low in the GOMEX developing more so we really won't see any development off of the EC any time soon. It's lost it's upper-level support and any GOMEX development will shear it.
There is a large area of convection elongated west to east across the Eastern Atlantic, a sign that the wave train is starting to roll. The waters are also becoming more favorable in temperature as the area of convection seems to be holding together over water. Cape Verde season's coming for sure.
It is important to note that I start my freshman year in high school Monday. This means posts will be sporadic during slow periods in the tropics (these may be running low now). If there is a big threat or storm threatning the U.S. you can bet your ass I'll be here to make a forecast and discuss what's going on. Basically I can't pick on blobs all day anymore (that's boring! ). But when things get nasty and unpleasant later this month and into September and October I'll be here. Look for my posts to mainly take place on the weekends for now.
Kevin  
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Alex K
Unregistered
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Looking at the close in visible loops, I believe to see a definite spin in the central gulf, south of Louisiana. Covective activity is still a touch on the weak side, but it is growing.
Plus could someone please show me an internet site for gulf buoy data? Thanks
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Mike
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla
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Alex K.; Try this link for bouy data. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/index.shtml
Mike
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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If the system in the gulf does form into something tropical, where is the best chance of it coming inland? The models are all over the place with it and the local guys here are too. Also, realistically, I hope I spelled that right, how strong could this thing get before it does make landfall, assuming it does develop? We know how these things can fire off quickly once they get close to land, especially on the Texas coastline. I'm sill not convinced that it will get going,though. As many have already stated, it first needs to hold its convection for an extended amount of time which hasn't happened yet. If, and when, it can do that than maybe I will be more excited over it. Until then, it is just another one of those " things to watch"
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Actually, The area in the Central GOM looks real good this morning. shifted its INVEST to this area. Appears a LLC is forming. As for strength. Once a system becomes established, if conditions at upper levels are good, with light winds aloft, all bets are off. Models will initialize again with the surface low in the equation. since IF this develops in the central GOM, it will have plenty of real estate. Having said this, I haven't explored the models yet and will wait 'til 12Z, and I'm not sure about the shear forecast. Direction seems most likely to be WNW, but again, need to look at the new runs. But if conditions are satisfactory, watch this closely. Cheers!!
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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it seems discontinuous, but the invest this morning really is in the central gulf. i'd call it 99L though. anyhow most of the models have more or less taken it north towards louisiana.. then more to the west as it gets closer to the ridge. based on how it looks, having not even checked surface obs, i'd expect a depression within 24hr. not feeling really confident on steering since i doubt model initialization and layer analysis is on the money. we should get a more concrete idea of what's going to push likely bertha after recon shows up.. later today i think.
off the ga/sc coast there is still enough going on to warrant attention.. but it has consistently failed to focus as a point low in favor of being an elongated trough. actually getting some shear over there. more focused convergence today than before, but still plenty of doubt about more organization. bastardi says it should move more NW... i'm thinking probably more W.
bermuda area.. still just a big low level vortex with a few scant convective cells in convergence bands well away from the center. this is yet another pattern induced, trough split generated wannabe. still waiting for easterly influence that will either gel or fail to generate yet another disturbance.
deep tropics seem to think it's february. can only wonder when they'll start up.
HF 1619z03august
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Greyman
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
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The system in the GOM looks pretty good this morning,though I can't see any pressure falls in that area I don't think there is a bouy close enough to the LLC to get an accurate measurment,none the less it looks pretty good to me & as a previous post said once there is a well defined LLC in very warm waters with favorable upper levels things can happen quickly,there is a ULL off to the NW of the system but it appears to be moving away & may just help to ventlate the system.
The other system off the East Coast has had a blow up of convection with it & the upper levels seem to be fairly favorable but I can't see a well defined circulation but it is August & things can get going in a hurry,we will see.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Latest Fax chart surface analysis shows pressure with the gulf low at 1013 mb. Do think this will be are next tropical system. Vis/IR satellite loops look good. Upper level winds appear favorable for further development. Although pressures remain a bit high.
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html
I thought this was a really nice look at what's going on in the Eastern Atlantic.
Choo Choo
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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I agree that the pressure is still high, but if the low doesn't drift out of the GOM as hot as the water temp has been it has a good chance to develope into something. I don't see a full blown hurricane though. While the pressure has dropped from yesterday, it doesn't seem to be dropping much or rapidly. The circulation does look good but the wind speed isn't increasing much either. My best guess is it will go ashore as a depression somewhere in La.
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Alex k
Unregistered
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I've noticed that the low in the Gulf of Mexico is looking a tad devoid of convection. I doubt that its dying, with the 85+ degree water and little wind shear. Could it be that in a system of this early stage it is getting less convection during the day?
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Over all, the latest model runs does not seem to be as interesting as they were yesterday. The area buoy's are holding steady at 29.97. The convection (what little there is.) is lame looking. If this thing does not start to get it's act together by tomorrow then BERTHA may just have to wait for the next ride. ANY COMMENTS? T. LEAP
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Yes, it is in an early development stage, and that could be why it is lacking convection during the day. I just wish that I had seen more development prior to this. We will know more after tonight. It has all the ingredients to develop, now if it will only cooperate. T. LEAP
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Jason M
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
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FORECAST POSTED: 8/03/02/ 9:00 PM EDT
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:
A lot of uncertainty tonight...
I will not include all of the model forecasts in my discussion tonight. The majority of the models develop a low center too far east. A center is very evident on satellite imagery over the central Gulf. In fact, this is a Mid Level Circulation (MLC) located between 5,000 and 10,000 feet up in the atmosphere. Now besides the decline of convection, there hasn't been a whole lot of change over the past 24 hours. The reason for the disorganization, is because of the lack of convection. Well why is there a lack of convection? We have an upper low to the west of the MLC. This upper low is causing a lot of vertical shear over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, any convection does develop around the center gets blown off.
Now this upper low is forecasted to continue moving west. In addition, an upper level ridge of high pressure is still forecasted to develop over the low, making the conditions for development a little more favorable. Now I must say, the chances of development are a bit lower than they were yesterday. However, I am not saying that this low no longer has the chance of development. If the shear does weaken as forecasted, we may begin to see some development. But let me remind you that development, if any, would be extremely slow to occur.
The forecast track has also become more uncertain. We can't heavily rely on the models because #1 they are MODELS and #2 they show a low developing to far EAST. So until the models can get a better handle on the situation, I am still going with yesterday's forecast track. A slow north to NNW drift can be anticipated over the next few days. Heavy rain will move over areas like Pensacola, Mobile, Biloxi, Gulfport and eventually New Orleans. Alabama and extreme western Florida will be on the wet side first. Then the ridge to the north will begin to have a greter impact on the low by pushing the system more to the west.
There isn't a whole lot more that I can say...its just a wait and see kinda thing. I will try my best to update the discussion twice. a day. The next discussion is scheduled for 6:00 AM eastern time.
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DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE National Hurricane Center FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
http://www.tropicalweatherwatchers.com
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http://www.independentwx.com
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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As I stated in one of my earlier posts, I figured this system would fizzle out when the models had it developing and coming my way. As long as I have been following hurricanes I have NEVER seen the models correctly predict the development or direction of a system that was SUPPOSE to have come to the Houston area. For some reason the tropical systems we get here are ones that were not predicted by the models to develop or ones that develop right on our doorstep (meaning just off the Upper Texas coast.) It looks like we will be in another lull for a while until the eastern Atlantic starts to fire up.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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this is getting repetitous. yet another low level swirl near our shores that by rights should be developing convection.. but doesnt. its under a ridge, over 85 degree water.. what more does it need? the pope to ordain it? pretty much everything we've been looking for to develop this year has been bastardi's home grown variety.. stuff that pops up in the wake of trough splits. this is really a false alarm pattern.. it produces what could easily be a tropical system, but gives what turns out to be a nonconvective swirl that drifts around for days. i'm still convinced that one of these areas.. central gulf or off the carolinas.. will get organized.. models are still hanging on that idea.. but i see no clear cut trigger mechanism to trip them off. maybe the next amplification will get the one off the carolinas.. globals have it alternately recurving and getting squashed east or south. gulf system is just a strong convective burst away from taking off.. as were the two july gulf invests that never got going down there.
2000 was the year of fish spinners and storms that faded as they approached our shores.
2001 was the year of storms that outran their convection and either ran west at low latitude or recurved if they crossed 20N.
2002 is becoming the year of lingering threats that never materialize. of course the dangerous part of the season still lies ahead.. but any particular hurricane season tends to have a theme established early that is repeated again and again. also.. a quiet early season argues for an active mid season.. you can draw all the parallels to historic seasons of the past you want.. but what this year reminds me of the most so far is the last two.
HF 0411z04august
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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The reason why this one isn't developing is due to an upper low near Texas. This low is causing wind shear. Now we may begin to see development. However, timing is becoming a bigger factor as its moving closer to land.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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I agree HF, Patterns do set up and stay that way for awhile. I can't remember the last time the was so far south. I have heard for weeks now of it (ITCZ) moving north. NOT! Well, about 6 more weeks until peak season. Nice waves moving off of Africa but just to far south and not breaking out of the . Lets hope this changes, or we are in for a slow season.
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Anonymous-doug
Unregistered
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the morning discussion on Accuweather picks up on the UKmet idea of brining the eastcoast low southward and developing it around Wednesday...it also notes the convection increase in the central GOM which is clearly evidenced on radar, but to me the returns on radar still show some influences of the trough there..people to the west should watch the GOM however; people in Florida shouldn't write off the Atlantic low yet...EDS.
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