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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: A new wave [Re: James88]
      #15706 - Fri Jul 02 2004 03:18 PM

Agree it is at least something to watch even if it does not go ahead and develop.The Atlantic Basin will have more favorable conditions once the MJO factor kicks in in the comming weeks as link below shows with those green lines expanding eastward.The effects from this MJO factor will be there after 2 weeks as it is a slow proccess.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_precip/gif/am_ir_monthly_1.gif

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3

Edited by Cycloneye (Fri Jul 02 2004 03:33 PM)


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: A new wave [Re: Cycloneye]
      #15707 - Fri Jul 02 2004 03:28 PM

Thanks for the link. Looks like these more favourable conditions are already spreading into the western GOM and W. Caribbean.

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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 69
Loc: Florida Big Bend
Re: SC again??? [Re: James88]
      #15708 - Fri Jul 02 2004 03:47 PM

Hate to sound like a broken record but looks like a circulation forming right on the coast near, hmm, Myrtle Beach. Not sure what if anything will happen, but, as I have pointed out, many years the season starts in that vicinity.

sc


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
There's a new sheriff in town [Re: James88]
      #15709 - Fri Jul 02 2004 03:49 PM

Late last night, John C. granted me "Moderator" status. A few of you have already noticed this. The posts have been getting pretty out of hand with Ed absent.

While I am as guilty as anyone of producing "off topic" posts, I now am charged with the responsibility of cleaning them up.

I just want to give fair warning to everyone. Until such time as Ed reappears, I will have to try to keep the board in line.

Hereafter, if I do believe there is a need to edit or remove a post, I will not delete it...it will be moved to another forum. Also, I will be giving more leeway than Ed did, so unless your post is attacking, offensive or derogatory, as long as it's "on topic" it will be untouched.

Feels like I've gone from class clown to teachers pet. Feel free to PM me if you feel anything is out of line and I'll deal with it.

Thank you all in advance for your understanding of the situation.

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Radar Link [Re: summercyclone]
      #15710 - Fri Jul 02 2004 05:07 PM

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocal...mp;prodnav=none

Link to the Myrtle Beach's radar.


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Radar Link [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #15711 - Fri Jul 02 2004 05:36 PM

Has anyone noticed that SSTs in the E. Caribbean seem to be falling (albeit slowly)? Could this have any implications for tropical development in the near future - or for that matter the season? I know that the E. Carib is a hostile environment for storm formation, but I'm just interested.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: There's a new sheriff in town [Re: LI Phil]
      #15712 - Fri Jul 02 2004 06:42 PM

congrats, phil. on the other hand something has ed out of the loop, which probably isn't good.. hope the man is doing alright.
that little system in the eastpac finally got a classification, though it undoubtedly will never get any stronger. only of interest since it may be signaling that the very sluggish MJO wave is finally getting some influence in our hemisphere. summercyclone pointed out the little mcc poking around off the carolina coast.. expect it to collapse and definitely go out to sea. think it ballsy to hedge bets on a heavy season.. but i've come to not expect such and probably won't ever predict one unless the signs are unmistakable (or a heavy one comes along and makes me less of a skeptic).
for now globals aren't picking up on much. showing a bit more of an active wave train later in the period, but i wouldn't put any stock into that (later in july maybe). may be a disturbance in the nw caribbean later next week, low confidence. lots of TUTT activity.. a pattern not conducive to low-latitude development.. and not a lot of blocking or cutting-off from the main flow in the mid-latitudes.. between those factors there isn't much room for stuff to happen. oh, and there's troughing persisting near the east coast.. the sort of thing that turns an active season into a mild one if it persists into fall. not that i have any real thoughts on whether that will happen.
HF 2242z02july


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: There's a new sheriff in town [Re: HanKFranK]
      #15713 - Fri Jul 02 2004 07:09 PM

>>> congrats, phil. on the other hand something has ed out of the loop, which probably isn't good.. hope the man is doing alright

HF and everyone else:

That's exactly why I'm "doing" this. I suppose it is a great honor to be so highly (???) thought of to be given this responsibility. I was just extremely concerned about Ed. Hadn't heard a peep out of him for 2 weeks, so I PMed John. He hasn't heard either, at least to my knowledge. Anyhow, one thing led to another and John granted me "moderator" powers. So now I'm going from someone whose posts were frequently EDited to being the one to keep you guys in line.

Since my 6/15 first storm guess didn't pan out...I'll say we have Alex by 7/15. No meterological reasoning there (well, maybe a little), but it seems that all the precursors are just about coming into line...SOI returning to neutral, MJO coming around, cold tongue off of SA, teleconnections, seasonal tendencies, etc. I'm not certain if I can offer up a new forum, but if you guys want "Keeping An Eye on the Gulf" (or whatever this forum is entitled) changed, let Mike know. I think one of the reasons John/Mike have kept the present forum is that there's really nothing out there right now to make a new forum over. Things should start to pick up soon (I hope).

(doing my best ED impersonation) Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Lonny307
Unregistered




Re: HEATING UP [Re: LI Phil]
      #15733 - Sun Jul 04 2004 02:03 PM

I think it's slowly starting to heat up in the tropics. The MJO is phasing into the tropical Atlantic very soon, the SOI seems to be staying slightly positive and the SST's are heating up. Just a matter of time. Probably the first storm will be in the Gulf from a wave mixing with a stalled front. This seems like the year where somewhere there will be a major hit. Hope I'm wrong though. After Andrew I wish nothing of the kind but the way the summer pattern is setting up someone along the east coast is going to get slammed. So be prepared this year. It only takes one.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Has anyone notice the change? [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #15975 - Sun Jul 11 2004 12:14 PM

On the upper Pacific Coast we have had the strangest weather, and I talk with many people all over the States and many of them are confused by the odd weather patterns as well.

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