LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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James88
That sure is a decent looking wave...and you're correct...first one we've seen in a couple of weeks...but...nothing is going to come from it.
If this were August, we'd definitely need to watch, but this wave is going to amount to zilch. Too bad, 'cause I'd like something to watch.
Since it's so dead around here, I've had a chance to read/watch Joe B several times...you should definitely consider subscribing to accuwx pro. At least for the free month trial. I'm not only going to keep it for the hurx season, but all year, as I live in an area that can get some serious winter wx (blizzards, nor'easters, etc.). Might not be worth it for our gulf/FLA posters, but for my neck of the woods...oh yeah. It's hard to believe that less than two years ago Joe B. was FREE, but, then again, that's life.
Anyhoo, back on topic. This looks to be like the real quiet time...probably just as well, as any storms that form during this time of year don't really amount to too much (excluding Audrey & Allison).
All the precursors to an "active" season seem to be nicely in place, looks like the is rebounding, Joe was making positive comments on the in his "longranger" and the soon to be two typhoons in the wPac all presage an active season ahead.
I'll still be watching that African wave, but wouldn't place any stake in it developing. Since it's slow right now, check out the cold tongue off of SA and the warm SSTs in the Atl... plus the really warm SSTs in the westpac. Methinks we're going to have a LOT to track this season, just not for a month or so.
Peace & Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Tropics Guy
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Loc: Miami, Florida
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Seems like the strongest wave coming off the African coast in awhile, models aren't picking up on it, apparently conditions are still not ripe for development in that area. 
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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HanKFranK
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i'd be hard pressed to come up with as good an analysis of upcoming trends in the tropics. as a counterpoint, i'll play devil's advocate for some other things that i think may come to pass (not with true conviction, but with a speculative interest) during the first 2-3 weeks of july.
soi may (can't say will) go positive again, or at least neutral into early july. add to that nao flipping to positive (trough splitting near the east coast with a good strong atlantic ridge, cutoffs underneath).. and then throw in the fact that an wave should be around in early july.. and whee, i'm thinking development in the subtropics. have this feeling that we'll finally see alex on a decaying front or some other type of mid latitude cutoff (25-30N has primed SSTs all the way to near the azores). keep seeing vestiges of the advertised on the globals, as it goes through its warbling, discontinuous cycle of development and metamorphosis during the early summer... thus don't think anything significant can happen in the deep tropics (unless it's hours or minutes away from land ahoy in central america).. fairly reasonable that alex and perhaps bonnie will be mid-latitude july quickies. ya know, like the ones during summer 2002, or 1997. if we get mdr systems, they'll probably be the types we saw last year.. depressions that open back up in a day or two. doesn't look like a claudette could make it right now, or anytime soon.
as goes back the other way (assuming it really does), have to wait/see how the nino zone SSTs respond over the next month. if we don't see a good shot of warming, count el nino out... and if el nino is out to pasture, then we get to see if all the gloomy core season predictions come true, and the big-uns come too close for comfort come august/september. 1960, 1985, 1992.. is bastardi trying to set himself up for a forecast letdown? anybody who knows hurricane history knows those years.. one with multiple notable and less notable hits, the other two having one tremendous haymaker hit on florida, and a secondary or two.
so is this year going to be another year of ultra-threatening but ultimately moderate Opals, georges, floyds, lilis, isabels? can we dodge another couple of bullets, ya think?
better question for.. oh, august.
HF 0311z26june
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Another great post HanKFranK. Sounds like we'll have to keep a close eye on the subtropics in the next few weeks.
At the moment, there are 5 waves in the Atlantic, none of which have much potential. However, the wave just moving past the Antilles may be something to watch in a couple of days. Some computer models are forecasting that it will move towards South Florida around Thursday. Apparently it could enhance shower and thunderstorm activity in the area. I'm not saying that any tropical development would result, but it is something to watch.
There looks to be some heavy rain moving from south of LI up through the Canadian maritimes. Also, there is a non-tropical disturbance in the GOM producing heavy showers and thunderstorms. Very little around this neck of the woods, but the W. Pacific is still very active, with Mindulle and Tingting meandering along. Perhaps this could be the precursor to some early July activity here.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Tropics are as quiet as these boards...
John or Mike, have you heard from ED recently? Haven't seen him patrolling the boards at all this week. I know Bettye had a minor operation on the 24th, and he said he'd have limited access to the boards, but he's been non-existent. I'm a tad concerned. He didn't return a PM or a direct e-mail as of Tuesday.
Anybody out there know anything????
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Anonymous
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It looks to me that the wave in the eastern caribbean is trying to form some sort of circulation at this hour. What do you all think?
ShawnS
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LONNY307
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Yeah, it is pretty slow on this board but that will change in time. That wave you're speaking of really has no circulation it's the upper low to its northwest that is pushing the convection northward. Plenty of time for circulations though. Everyone be prepared and safe this year.
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Wild Cat
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I relaxed and enjoyed the weekend with my family. I watered my garden, because it obviously isn't going to rain. And, I figure the hurricane season won't get going until sometime in July.
I hope Phil finds Ed and all is okay.
This is a nice board and I enjoy reading it.
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Loc: Pensacola
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Does anyone think its time to get worried now that the has been negative for almost 3 weeks? I havent kept up with any post lately but I browsed through and somewhere it sadi Joe. B said the was rebounding but I just took a look at it and its at -46. Does anyone think this is a start to a different pattern..El Nino? or do ya'll still see a nuetral for the hurricane season? Cheers
Edited by DroopGB31 (Mon Jun 28 2004 06:00 AM)
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lonny307
Unregistered
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https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US058VMET-GIFwxg.OTIS.glbl_sstanomaly.gif
Looking at the latest SST's I would say no. Maybe the is influenced by two Typhoons but I don't know enough about to explain it.
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Wild Cat
Unregistered
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If what you are implying is that an El Nino could be forming, then how long does it usually take for an El Nino to take over. I remember the one in 1997 happened faster than most but that was considered a rarity I thought.
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The 1997 El Nino certainly developed very fast. Higher than normal SST anomalies first became apparent in mid-February. The event then peaked around October, and maintained itself throughout the remainder of 1997.
In 2002, the NOAA first reported warming in the Pacific in early January. It went on to announce the official return of El Nino in July of that year. It peaked around early winter.
Going back a few years, the 1982-83 El Nino event began in May 1982, with slight ocean warming off the coast of Peru. It reached a high in December 1982, but inexplicably rose to new strengths in April 1983.
It seems that the stronger the event, the faster it develops.
1982-83 - 11 months from first signs to peak
1997-98 - 9 months from first signs to peak
2002 - 11 months from first signs to peak.
It seems that if El Nino is currently in the developing stages, it would hold it's greatest influence very late this year into 2005. At least that's my opinion. Here's a link to data about warm and cold episodes by season:-
Cold and warm episodes by season
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Rob_M
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Loc: Cary, NC
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What we're seeing with the is just fluctuational. As JB has even pointed out himself, it's been swinging up and down the past several months. One likely reason for the negative the past week or so is the negative that has been over the Australian/WPAC region. Not only has that enhanced WPAC typhoon activity, but also lowering of pressures over Australia...SOI. Once the positive takes over (which should be rather soon), we'll probably see it swing back to positive again.
On another note, even IF the were to stay negative for a long time...any El Nino that tries to come on will have a hard time. Significant El Nino development in late summer/fall is uncommon, and actually has NEVER occurred in the past 50-60 years or so when the QBO is westerly. The time period to look for El Nino formation is March-May...so AT MOST we'll have a warm-bias (not really true El Nino) towards the end of the year...too late to have any impact on the hurricane season.
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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summercyclone
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Loc: Florida Big Bend
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Will be most unusual, first time I ever remember that happening. Someone might want to take a look at what the ATL season was like in years in the past when there were no June storms in East PAC.
Also...interesting little blob south of Haiti, at the base of the wave....hmmmm.
sc
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Those years with no E. Pacific storm in June seem to be years in which a significant storm makes landfall. Obviously, the last time when no June storm occured, Camille devastated the Mississippi coast.
Here is a summary of years with no June storms:-
1969 - Camille CAT 5 Mississippi coast
1964 - Cleo CAT 4 Caribbean
- Dora CAT 3 Florida
- Hilda CAT 4 Louisiana
- Isbell CAT 3 Florida
1957 - Audrey CAT 4 Louisiana/Texas
These are the most recent years in which no storm has formed in the E. Pacific during June. The hurricanes listed above are shown by their peak intensity, although some did make landfall at this status. Looks like 2004 could be a big year in the Atlantic basin. Let's hope no-one gets hurt.
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alex
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Right now, the only thing in the entire Atlantic with any chance whatsoever of becomining interesting is the little system south of Haiti. If it moves into the western Caribbean, I would give it a small chance of development. However, right now it just looks like a blob, with no turning in the clouds, so i wouldnt give it much of a shot anytime soon.
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James88
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It is in an area with moist air and warm SSTs. I suppose that one inhibiting factor could be the interaction with the mountainous terrain of Haiti. Even so, there seems to be persistent convection further south over water.
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javlin
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Poximity to land is one factor for sure shear looks light though.Only shear seems to be to the NE from the ULL.Not much movement right now interesting feature though.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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Yes the board is very slow and I am one of the members who was absent for a while but in my case it was computer problems what forced me to not be here for more than a week.But expect the board to be more active as the season becomes more active in weeks ahead.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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According to Joe B, the fall to -46 in the has to do with a front that blasted through Tahiti with wind gusts to 60mph and falling pressures. He said it was akin to a front reaching the Central Caribbean or Gulf of Tehuntapec. (Remember, it's winter in the southern hemisphere right now). Since last week, he has been anticipating a rise to positive teritory probably sometime late this week.
The main thing Joe's been harping on lately though is the Westpac and hints of a strong landfalling year again in the Atlantic. Some of you may recall the very far west tracks last year and far-west recurvatures. (It's funny how the the "Far East" can be the far west too.)
I don't see anything on the horizon. Today's Tropical Update showed the monsoon starting up in India again which should correlate to more waves exiting Africa and a return to neutral or postiive .
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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