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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2309
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies
      #18816 - Wed Aug 11 2004 12:03 AM

Tropical Storm Bonnie sputtered a bit earlier this evening, but she has regained some convection and is slowly moving to the north. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida panhandle eastward to the mouth of the Suwanee River.

Current intensity remains at 40 knots, however, NHC forecasts a slow increase in intensity to 60 knots - just below hurricane status - prior to landfall near Fort Walton Beach on Thursday morning. Residents in the Watch area should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Bonnie and take necessary precautions if the Watch is upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Charley developed an impressive Central Dense Overcast (CDO) this evening. Charley, with sustained winds of 55 knots, continues to move toward the west northwest at 22 knots. Charley continues to maintain excellent outflow and has a large circulation envelope. The following Watches and Warnings have been issued:

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD
INCLUDING PORT-AU-PRINCE.

I expect Charley to reach hurricane intensity on Wednesday - rapid intensification is possible with this cyclone. In the long term, Charlie has the potential to pose a threat to the Florida peninsula, and Florida residents should plan now for the possibility of a significant weather event on Saturday. This would be especially true if Charley passes north of Jamaica rather than south of it on Wednesday. It is certainly a system that nees to be monitored closely as the weekend approaches...and we'll do just that for both Bonnie and Charley.
ED

Event Related Links
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
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Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

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AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #18822 - Wed Aug 11 2004 12:20 AM

Bonnie looks like she's making a comeback, but boy is she a small storm. I'm reminded of a tropical depression from a few years ago - I think T.D. #4 from 2000 - that was a very small swirl of clouds. Bonnie's different in that it is sustaining some deep convection, but the overall impacts from this system aren't going to be felt over a very large region no matter what happens between now and landfall. That doesn't mean that everyone shouldn't be prepared, though. I had the privilege to have Craig Fugate, the director of the Fl. Division of Emer. Mgmt., speak at my local AMS chapter's banquet back in April and he spoke of changing outcomes - everyone in the affected areas shuld take the initiative to be prepared for anything and change their own outcomes. The warnings and information will be out there - people just need to heed it. I'll be interested to see what the global models do once they have the Gulfstream sampling data; should give us a clearer picture of the eventual track of Bonnie.

Similarly, it should give us an indication of the environment that Charley will head into down the road. Once we get to this time tomorrow, though, and the sampling data from the NW Caribbean is ingested into the models, we should get an even clearer picture on this storm. It's rapid forward speed is making a westward path less likely, but people in the western Gulf should still be watching it just in case. With that mass of clouds, it's hard to tell where exactly the low level center is without visible imagery, but I'd place it just south of the center of the mass. Wouldn't be shocked to see an eye pop out sometime overnight, but also wouldn't be shocked to see it maintain status quo for awhile. The basic models - like the BAM_ series, the A98E, etc - have really converged along with the GFDL on a Tampa Bay track for Charley in the next 4 days or so. It's strange to note that they are even more closely clustered than they are for Bonnie. Nonetheless, much can and will change and everyone in the Gulf should be mindful of the situation.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #18823 - Wed Aug 11 2004 12:22 AM

Thanks for the new thread, Ed. I think tomorrow will be the most crucial day as far as Charley goes. If the NHC is correct, and it stays on that WNW course for the next 24 hours, wouldn't it pass to the west of Jamaica? I'm gonna keep checking the loops.



--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies [Re: Colleen A.]
      #18827 - Wed Aug 11 2004 12:30 AM

Colleen:
Being on St. pete beach area in the same shape you are. By tomorrow afternoon I think we will be more sure if going to get a hit on Tampa Bay.

Dave


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #18830 - Wed Aug 11 2004 12:37 AM

Bonnie to be quite honest disappoints me, may never make hurricane status.This will be lucky for quite a few folks.The one thing I take from Bonnie is that how perfect it must of had been when Camille developed.I was but a young boy then an impact that has lasted a lifetime.HF you were right, by no means a comparison.Charley now it is ALMOST perfect it will develop but just not as fast.The track right now I would not lay my bottom dollar on it.I would wait and see where crosses Cuba then make a call.The weather at times is tough enough to call just for an approaching cool front much less throw in the qulams of a hurricane.The angle of approach of Charley shall depend on maybe 3>5 degrees of W movement.This movement will not happen until Charley slows down.A body in motion wishes to remain in motion(until an outside force is imposed).

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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies [Re: javlin]
      #18833 - Wed Aug 11 2004 12:48 AM

Question for you Ed. Even though Charley has a growing CDO, the large envelop you mentioned I just don't see, as it seems the circulation judging from the Dvorak is within the CDO. Maybe its deceiving because we don't have visible, but it seems that the total circulation pattern isn't that large. Also, do you think that we will feel the effects of Charley on the east coast in Melbourne? Seems thta if it contunues at its current forward speed, it couldn't get very strong. Are you thinking this may slow down a bit before landfall if it follows the eastern track. That is, do you think it would cross the peninsula and cross into the Atlantic say at Daytona? (given the current guidance )? I know you can't give a hard answer. Just want to know if we should be prepared here in Melbourne> Thanks

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1212
Loc: South Florida
Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies (good thread name) [Re: Steve Hirschb.]
      #18836 - Wed Aug 11 2004 12:53 AM

ok.. wrote this..adding to this.. watching TWC ... want to mention not only does he look like he is moving NW he is beginning to stretch in the direction.. something to think on.

tomorrow morning mothers all over Miami are going to wake up, look at the news/weather and think...

school supplies vs hurricane supplies..

going to get a lot of attention tomorrow.. getting close to prime time for Charley..

....
Okay...
so is like this...

Someone, somewhere in South Florida is going to have to deal with a strong threat of Charlie affecting their weather on the way to parts north.

The problem is not where Charlie will end up as much as where he goes on his way there.

1... west of keys
2...thru keys (eww...whimpering here)
3...oh lets not talk about north keys and SE fla..long shot anyway

As I see it right now.. Charley is going more NW than WNW. He is going so fast that I figure by the time my son and I online got done arguing that one he had traveled the distance from downtown Miami to North Miami Beach.. again "ewww"

So... aside from the "how strong?" "how big" and "how fast" my biggest question here is at what angle is he aiming for Tampa Bay.

Nice to say Tampa Bay but if he comes in around Marathon than the upper Keys and SE florida is on NE quandrant with tons of weather.

Watch.. he'll probably stall in the straits when steering currents go flat.. mark my words, would be ironically pathetically funny replay of Donna. But Donna stalled a lot, Charley never has..

Charley has gone chug chug zoom zoom across approximately over 400 miles in one day. I know I'm not a math major but... approx 25 mph foward speed over 24 hours.. you do that math..

I'm glad I'm not Billy Wagner tonight because he has big decisions to make down in the Keys. Normally he could wait a bit but with this ongoing forward speed and the tracks encompassing the lower keys.. he has to act as soon as possible. And he always does which is why I admire him greatly. So...if some announcement is made tomorrow morning that they will start a evacuation of non-residents in the lower keys tomorrow sometime.. IF..you all know that Miamians everywhere are going to stop, look, listen and run to Publix. Or at least make shopping lists.

Could go west of the Keys.. and then slam into those bay cities on the West Coast but..I think that's not the most likely scenario with her current motion being closer to NW than WNW.

And, while I've been writing this he probably went further than the average commute to work for most the people reading this... think on that one. Don't think too long or it will have gone another five miles.

Where will he hit Cuba?
At what angle?
How big will he get?
How big/strong will he get?

How many times will the models be pulled left and right over the next 24 hours before we know who is really under the gun as he makes his way towards a probable West Coast landfall.

I think a track blending Cleo from the South and then Donna track takes over...

My guess..

Good night.. we should all get some rest, we won't rest much tomorrow night.

And if Billy is reading this somewhere...sorry I can't make you laugh tonight but do me a favor and go light some candles in the grotto for me...
Bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HURRICANE EYE
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 10
Loc: ORLANDO, FLORIDA
Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies [Re: LoisCane]
      #18839 - Wed Aug 11 2004 01:14 AM

I agree that it appears to be moving just north of wnw and by morning he will have an eye with 90 mph winds and will land fall on the ne side of jamaica or skirting the ne coastline while maintaining its strength, after passing the island Charley will intensify to 125mph before coming ashore in the swamp land area of cuba roughly around 81west long , than emerging into the gulf were it reintensifies back to 125-130 mph landfalling south of tampa bay with the eye wall traveling ne thru the state,this is just a guess so just be prepared and watch the NHC track. good night

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies (good thread name) [Re: LoisCane]
      #18840 - Wed Aug 11 2004 01:14 AM

Am I mistaken that there is a low out in front of Charley that for the time being is causing a slight N movement?

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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies (good thread name) [Re: javlin]
      #18841 - Wed Aug 11 2004 01:21 AM

I don't know but something seems to be disrupting him. Looks like the CDO just fractured in two. Another chat line says that QS shows no closed off system (no west wind). Is this possible....he's still moving too fast.

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies (good thread name) [Re: Steve Hirschb.]
      #18842 - Wed Aug 11 2004 01:27 AM

I would think that a W wind would be noticable even at this speed.I know on some weaker storms moving this fast that sometimes a west wind is not easliy obtain.This one has good structure.Maybe a fluke.

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies (good thread name) [Re: javlin]
      #18845 - Wed Aug 11 2004 02:31 AM

I hope no one starts a " it's jogged to the north...look out Miami" line. And this storm's name doesn't begin with an "A". This will be a E GOM storm, it's not splitting in half, it's right about where it was forecast to be at 16.4N 73.8W. It is still a tropical storm, it does not have an eye yet but it will. Jamaica has a problem, Eastern Cuba has a bigger problem, and the west coast of Florida should be ready for the worse case. In fact all of Florida from the SW corner all the way to the state line of Georgia should be ready for at least Cat1 effects at some point from friday till Sun/Mon. It's T-numbers held at 3.0 this morning.Bonnie's inched back up to 2.0, maybe this is her last shot at coming up with something to remember her by, otherwise she's a tight little ball of wind getting soaked up by the front.

But please give the Miami area a break; after living here for over 40 years, the last thing I want to see again is their whole freaking car-driving city on I-95 heading north so the rest of us are left with no options


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Charley starting to weaken again? [Re: joepub1]
      #18850 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:00 AM

The western side of the CDO has warmed in it would not suprize me if it fall apart again. This storm fades bombs fades bombs! What is it with this storm!

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Charley starting to weaken again? [Re: Anonymous]
      #18851 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:08 AM

where do you see this weakening???and when has it weakened? it hasnt at all and sat images show continued strengthning.!

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #18852 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:24 AM

Ed certainly named this thread correctly.
Bonnie is like the Energizer Bunny(oops), she keeps going and going and going.
Charley on the other hand will be a tough call. Will Jamaica terrain knock the wind out of him, or will the mid level low over the Caymans deflect him over the Yucatan or Cuba?
Over the last few hours Charley has changed from a near perfect circle to a hammerhead shape. With the apex pointed dead at Jamaica. If he can use this plow shape to his advantage then he is on to the southeastern GOM.
A good Vis Sat shot on both storms would be nice at this point.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies [Re: danielw]
      #18853 - Wed Aug 11 2004 04:39 AM

URNT12 KNHC 110815
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/0815Z
B. 25 DEG 25 MIN N
90 DEG 35 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1448 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 160 DEG 44 KT
G. 062 DEG 13 NM
H. 1001 MB- 3mb pres. drop in 1:45
I. 18 C/ 1462 M
J. 21 C/ 1462 M-1C drop inside ctr
K. 20 C/ NA
L. OPEN WEST
M. C20
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF977 0702A BONNIE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 44 KT NE QUAD 0811Z.

going and going!

Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 11 2004 04:42 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies [Re: danielw]
      #18854 - Wed Aug 11 2004 05:18 AM

TROPICAL STORM Charley DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

CHARLEY HAS MAINTAINED A SOLID CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS
EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED
ON Dvorak T NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA....
SINCE THE 36 HOUR FORECAST BRINGS THE 34 KT WIND RADII JUST SOUTH OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM
DRY TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies [Re: danielw]
      #18855 - Wed Aug 11 2004 05:27 AM

0845z IR shot of Charley beginning to get a saw toothed pattern over the eastern semicircle. 6 "teeth" visible from NE thru SSE. Not usually a good sign if maintained.

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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Analyze what we know [Re: danielw]
      #18857 - Wed Aug 11 2004 06:20 AM

ok.. let's try to get serious a second with some analyzing. Let's assume the current track stays accurate and Charlie lands as a Friday the 13th storm just south of Tampa Bay.

Can those in the know here tell us hobbiests, based on the current data, what he will land as? Cat 1? Cat 2? More? And, where do the strongest winds/storms/surge lie?


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 138
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies [Re: danielw]
      #18858 - Wed Aug 11 2004 06:22 AM

I don't think that Bonnie is going to do much. She has already weakened, I think we have to watch out for Charley. Especially here in Central Florida from Tampa to Jax. Going to be a rough ride for the next couple of days. Charley is forcasted to be a high cat 1 to low cat 2. Its time to batten down the hatches.

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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