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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Convergence of systems and timing [Re: St. David]
      #18903 - Wed Aug 11 2004 09:26 AM

Nope not the only one. Also don't think it will dig as far south as previously thought. therefore, Charley could go west of the current predicted path. Notice the latest run of the BAMM has Charley back in the central gulf.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Not a good time to start crying "Wolf" [Re: Unregistered User]
      #18905 - Wed Aug 11 2004 09:31 AM

Anyone that has lived in this area long enough, knows it is a joke.. Publix never calls you when they are out of bread and water, Winndixie does !!

Do not mean to make people edgy, we still have a lot of uncertainty. I lived through Andrew in 1992 in South Miami, so I know what panic is..


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Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 111
Loc: Beckley, WV
Re: Convergence of systems and timing [Re: St. David]
      #18906 - Wed Aug 11 2004 09:31 AM

It has been about two years since I last frequented this site. The possibility of Charley approaching my area on Friday has brought me back. I will post weather observations from my weather station here in Seminole, FL (just north of St. Petersburg) if the storm approaches as currently forecasted, or if Bonnie makes an unexpected jaunt eastward.

My thoughts on Charley...I see no reason to disagree with the official forecast track. Charley is moving far too fast for the trough to miss it. If the track shifts any, it will be more toward the west. If Bonnie were more formidable than she is, she could delay the influence of the trough on Charley, but Bonnie is too compact of a system for this. I think the NHC's forecast track is about right. Just another 24 hours, and I believe we will be able to pinpoint a fairly accurate landfall location.

God Bless,
Ronn

--------------------
Ronn Raszetnik - Hazards Geographer


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bobbi
Unregistered




Re: Convergence of systems and timing [Re: doug]
      #18907 - Wed Aug 11 2004 09:36 AM

alot now depends on track and size of bonnie

storms are heat seeking missles..charley will follow bonnie


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Convergence of systems and timing [Re: jth]
      #18908 - Wed Aug 11 2004 09:39 AM

Quick note about the BAMM..... that whole model set got started at the wrong point to begin with. Charley is a a half of degree further north which makes a difference. I'd throw the whole set out myself, bad run.

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Convergence of systems and timing [Re: joepub1]
      #18909 - Wed Aug 11 2004 09:42 AM

Just a another note: Bonnie has hit 2.5 on the T-numbers. A hell of a comeback again.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 838
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Convergence of systems and timing [Re: joepub1]
      #18911 - Wed Aug 11 2004 09:51 AM

No I will stick with what I just said...looked at it all again...the trough is digging down well past San Antonio TX now and a strong push of dry air is well off the NW TX coast pushing generally east-se into the central gulf..this will push Bonnie more east, and my view of it is that this is already occuring as the center now sits right on 90 now...the general elongation of the cloud mass is beginnig to be toward the ene and if you watch the development of the moisture plume ahead of the system you canget a pretty good indication of that as a general direction this is more ene too.
Charley has flattened out some what and that could be temporary; but my bet is that it is feeling the influence of increasingly large Bonnie and the overall shift to the east. Charley may also be influenced by an ULL whch is moving generaly west ahead of it...
It is possible for Charley to shift left of the path and go further west before recurve...But This trough should block it going all the way west.
These are possibilities that I think the current dynamic seems to suggest.

--------------------
doug


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Convergence of systems and timing [Re: joepub1]
      #18912 - Wed Aug 11 2004 09:51 AM

As I quickly scan the net for data, I've seen two different models MERGE the two storms almost, I repeat almost into one. I'd kinda wondered about the timing last night/ this morning, and I wouldn't put it out of the picture that Bonnie is slow to get where she needs to go and Charley ends up holding hands with her somewhere over North FL/ Atlantic seaboard. That would seem to bad news for LI Phil and that area more than anyone else. I said this last night, I'll say it again: weird season and it just started.

Everyone remember these are still two tropical storms at the moment, no huricanes yet....


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Convergence of systems and timing [Re: doug]
      #18913 - Wed Aug 11 2004 10:00 AM

Doug in a way we agree totally. There is really only one door for both storms to go through, and thats across C/N FL. I think when someone says Charley will shift further west, they mean further up the coast of Florida. I don't see it any other way myself.

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Charley vortex message [Re: jth]
      #18914 - Wed Aug 11 2004 10:00 AM

jth - sorta yes, sorta no. The degrees part is fine; it's the second number, the minutes, that you have to 'decode.' But, it's simple - just divide the number by 60 and you have your decimal degrees. That, 16 degrees 11 minutes (as an example) would be 16.18 degrees.

Colleen - that 76kt wind was at flight level, which I believe was 850mb. There's an additional reduction to the surface from that height which varies by storm (and some storms can even have stronger winds at the surface, though this isn't as common). The recon flight, in the D group, estimated surface winds to be about 55kt - roughly 65mph - though they haven't reached the NE side yet I don't believe.

Working on an explanation for some of what's going on with Bonnie, hope to have that in a little while.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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bobbi
Unregistered




for doug on good writing [Re: doug]
      #18915 - Wed Aug 11 2004 10:03 AM

good thoughts..

yes trough is also making bonnie move faster towards a harder right turn ..in my opinon

think Charley notices bonnie and also think he might go more wnw now than he was last night which looked more nw but...big BUT.. think it will make a sharper turn back in its curve towards florida

sort of six of one half a dozen of the other
you win some, you lose some.. so...

that being said remember also.. Charley is a developing system, they both are and because of that they are prone to give us surprises and heartburn

IF this was a Cat 3 down there..we'd be more certain how it would play out

If someone sees Charley slow down please yell out and.. if anyone has some good loops to link to do so.. please

good analysis Doug in my opinon


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
More from TWC [Re: Clark]
      #18916 - Wed Aug 11 2004 10:03 AM

TWC now has Mike Seidel at Ft. Walton Beach, Jim Cantore on St. George Island, and I just heard they are sending out a third person as well, location TBD. This won't be until later on today, though. Guess the overnight buildup has changed a few minds up there in Atlanta...

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Charley vortex message [Re: Colleen A.]
      #18917 - Wed Aug 11 2004 10:04 AM

Yes, many counties in Florida (including mine) utlize an Emergency Notification System. I recommend you monitor your local media for possible information. Not sure what part of Florida you are in...

Michael


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Craziness & Seriousness [Re: joepub1]
      #18918 - Wed Aug 11 2004 10:07 AM

>>> That would seem to bad news for LI Phil and that area more than anyone else. I said this last night, I'll say it again: weird season and it just started.

Thanks for your concern, but I'm more than a tad worried for all y'all on the gulf coast. Things are going to be crazy and soon. Anyone with interests from the Keys north to the FL/AL border should finish preparations NOW and know your evac routes. Stock up on supplies if you haven't already.

Folks, please try to stay on topic (excellent posts so far) and keep the idle banter to a minimum.

Also, the recon data are great for those who know how to interpret them, but they clog up the boards. Only post the relevant data (and you know what those are).

Everybody be safe...and if they tell you to leave...and you can...GO!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Convergence of systems and timing [Re: joepub1]
      #18919 - Wed Aug 11 2004 10:08 AM

Nice surprise this morning Bonnie the best she ever has looked.The little low out in front of Charley I believe is affecting Charley's path.The full WV basin view shows it moving W(19N and 83W).I thought last night that Charley was going to ride the hump.Now all he has do is follow the path and go threw the door.It look's to me Charley goes over W Cuba.I have not looked at the Graphic models at PSU but did they acknowledge the low?

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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: More from TWC [Re: Clark]
      #18920 - Wed Aug 11 2004 10:11 AM

What a difference a night makes! Bonnie is looking BETTER THAN EVER. Yeah, Slidel is right down the road from here in Ft. Walton. Things are getting interesting. Anyone think Bonnie has a shot at being a Hurricane now?

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Convergence of systems and timing [Re: joepub1]
      #18921 - Wed Aug 11 2004 10:12 AM

Joe Pub,

The models actually initiated at the correct position. The current listed position is almost a full degree north of the actual position.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
HWO [Re: javlin]
      #18922 - Wed Aug 11 2004 10:16 AM

I fixed it so the Tampa Hazardous weather outlook appears on the front page now, folks may want to look at it right now.

Link to it


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Models [Re: jth]
      #18923 - Wed Aug 11 2004 10:16 AM

Bonnie & Charley

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: Convergence of systems and timing [Re: jth]
      #18924 - Wed Aug 11 2004 10:17 AM

Its looks like bonnie is getting bigger. Hey joe, I wonder if tim (channel 12) is saying it will hit.

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