HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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or rather rising out of the east. the wave that has emerged off africa on august 21st is very potent, and given the time of year and level of organization has a very good chance of being our next named system.
this is a tad unconventional, but am interested in seeing how well we can do at some crazy long range guesscasting on where it will be/how powerful it will be going into next week.. so ante up and take this challenge if you dare:
what will be the status of the wave currently exiting west africa at 48/72/96 hrs from 00Z22august? that's for 8pm eastern monday, tuesday, and wednesday.
post your responses in the format:
72hr: lat/lon in tenths of a degree, max wind kts/min pres. mb
eg. 72hr: 39.7/56.4, 50/1008
here's my shot.
48hr: 12.4/29.8, 35/1005
72hr: 12.9/35.6, 45/1001
96hr: 14.2/42.0, 60/991
HF 1601z21august
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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OK, I feel lucky today:
48hr 13.0/28.2, 40/1007
72hr 14.9/33.6, 50/1000
96hr 15.3/37.3, 65/990
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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OK, I'm hungry for some crow...haven't had much to eat the past week 
Happy B-day COOP!
48: 13.2/28.8 35/1004
72: 13.4/35.8 35/1004
96: 13.6/41.4 70/988 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
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can someone link a map with these coordinates so I can check them? Thanks, Devin
full basin chart
BTW, almost any weather site, including this one, either has printable maps, or links to such.
note from another moderator: hey parrish. there isn't much of a system to plot just yet, we're closing our eyes and throwing at the dartboard... more luck than skill. eyeball it's progress and try to envision how it will move and develop... you're welcome to contribute. stick to the formula though, so it can be qualified later. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Aug 21 2004 05:10 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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Not nearly as bullish as the AVN/GFS on this wave, at least not in the 4 day time frame. The AVN, with the past couple of runs, is trending towards developing a lot of cyclones in the Atl & EPac, which isn't impossible but I'm taking it with a grain of salt. It's interesting to note that it's tough for this model (due to it's inherent physics) to ever develop a deep tropical cyclone - but alas, it does just that, bringing the pressure into the 980-990mb range with a deep warm core. Not all that often you see that with the AVN. Of note is that it develops an upper-level anticyclone over the storm that translates to the west with the system. Outflow to the north would be excellent if the scenario forecast by the AVN plays out.
But, I'm not buying it...yet...
T+48: 12.0/28.2 not classified
T+72: 12.4/35.8 35kt/1008mb
T+96: 13.0/39.8 45kt/1000mb
It has potential, but having been burned in the past, I'm trending on the low side.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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deleted by moderator, failed criteria/no ID --HF
you're welcome to post anon, but next time identify yourself and follow the challenge rules. it isn't hard.
HF 0457z22august
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 22 2004 12:57 AM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I feel that this system does have the possibility to devlop, but I usually wait to it becomes a storm or a hurricane but I'll take a lucky guess.
48: 12.6/31.0 30/1006
72:13.1/33.1 45/ 999
96:15.2/34.5 55/989
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Jason234 (Sun Aug 22 2004 09:00 AM)
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2091
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Ok, here is my swag:
48hr (24/00Z): 10.0N/30.0W 20kts/1009mb - not classified
72hr (25/00Z): 10.5N/35.0W 25kts/1008mb - not classified
96hr (26/00Z): 11.0N/39.5W 30kts/1007mb - TD#6
Cheers,
ED
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Matt56364764
Unregistered
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The convection has flared up greatly this afternoon. This will develop into a tropical derpession over the next 24 hours. Here is my thinking. Moving westward for the next 48 to 60 hours. Then a turn more to the west-northwest there after. A track to the south/left of the seems to be in the cards at this time. I think this system will also stay fairly weak over the next 24 to 36 hours which will keep it on a westward track. With the Favable upper level Enviroment I forecast this to become a hurricane around 96 hours. Maxs out around 120 hours as 100 mph hurricane.
Now 20 mph
6 25 mph
12 25 mph
24 35 mph
36 45 mph
48 45 mph
60 50 mph
72 65 mph still below 15 north
84 70 mph Around 40 west?
96 75 mph
108 90 mph
129 100 mph
the format i gave has a purpose.. so results can be easily tallied and compared. why is it so hard to follow? -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 22 2004 08:37 PM)
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Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 114
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl 27.32N 80.35W
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Looking for low slow development for the next few days, not sure it will develop much at all in this timeframe
48hr: 10.2/30.5 30/1006
72hr: 10.9/35.5 30/1006
96hr: 11.4/43.1 35/1005
Hurric
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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no ssd track on it, but it appears the center was around 10N, 29W at the time. no intensity guidance either, but will go with 20kt/1009mb. here's how everybody did.
HF +2.4/+0.8, +15kt/-4mb
Coop +3.0/-0.8, +20kt/-2mb
phil +3.2/-0.2, +15kt/-5mb
clark +2.0/-0.8, ??kt/??mb (no rating given)
j234 +2.6/+2.0, +10kt/-3mb
edD +0.0/+1.0, 0kt/0mb (reference intensity estimated prior to checking your numbers.. coincedence, but probably closest anyway)
matt####.. none given, too lazy to reference the times
hurric +0.2/+1.5, +10kt/-3mb
gotta give round one to ed. clark and hurric i'd give a tie for second (won't happen next time, clark gave intensity #s for the 00Z25aug position). for position, deviation on estimates was unanimously too far north. more divided on longitude (mostly too far west). intensity was again almost unanimously too high.
HF 1920z24august
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I did pretty good for my first time, I have a lot to learn, but good job clark, Ed, and Hurric! I still have tom. to be right though. I didn't seem to perdict the forward motion correctly and didn't expect it to move that slowly.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Jason234 (Tue Aug 24 2004 09:22 PM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Well, for the most part, my forecast was pure crow. Two caveats, however...one, on Saturday, when I made the forecast, many of us were in agreement it would be classified later on that day. Well, Tuesday at 5:00 and it's still not classified...so I had to base my windspeed and pressure on a classified storm. crow enjoyed. I have kept minimal development, so by Thursday, I still have it at 35kts/1004...that may be a tad too low but we'll see. The one thing that I did nail, and to my mind one of the more important was the westward motion. I was quite close. Until we get development, I worry more and more this will not spin the fishes...and that could spell trouble for the EC down the road. Hopefully I'm wrong, as I enjoy crow quite much. Still think we will be hearing from down the road...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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Since I'm taking a look at it (and we've got a classified system), here's where we are at now...
Verification: 11.1°N 35.2°W 25kt/1009mb at 0000z
HF: +1.8/+0.4/+20kt/-8mb
Coop: +3.8/-1.6/+25kt/-9mb
Phil: +2.3/+0.6/+10kt/-5mb
Clark: +1.3/+0.6/+10kt/-1mb
j234: +2.0/-2.1/+20kt/-10mb
ED: -0.6/-0.2/0kt/-1mb
hurric: -0.2/+0.3/+5kt/-3mb
Ed's almost nailed it (even with the recent classification) - and is nearly within the 50nmi error listed in the position estimate. Hurric's right there with him as well and is within the error on position, but slightly off on intensity.
Now, will the storm intensify to a great degree today...or will it be continued slow development? Should be an interesting one...
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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For those that were wondering why the overnite satellite loops are missing frames. For the next week the GOES-12 satellite will be entering an eclipse with the sun from around 0415Z to around 0530Z based on the information in this table.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/GOES/EAST/FL04-G12-Rout.html
Beginning 09/17/04 the eclipse will start at 0345Z and end around 0615Z.
If I interpret this table correctly.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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And the last one...
Verification: 11.7°N, 41.1°W 35kt/1005mb
And the results...
HF: +2.5/+0.9/+25kt/-14mb
Coop: +3.6/-3.8/+30kt/-15mb
Phil: +1.9/+0.3/+35kt/-17mb
Clark: +1.3/-1.3/+10kt/-5mb
j234: +3.5/-6.6/+20kt/-16mb
ED: -0.7/-1.6/-5kt/+2mb
Hurric: +0.3/+2.0/0kt/0mb
In a close one, think this one goes to Hurric. Both Hurric and Ed are about the same off on distance, Hurric too fast and Ed too slow, while Hurric nailed the intensity and Ed was just slightly off. But that's picking nits.
As a whole, we all seemed to be a little too fast, a bit too strong, and a bit too far to the north. But, these storms can be very fickle...and truth be told, I'm surprised it's still just a 35kt tropical storm here at 0z. I'm sure everyone else will add in their comments from here on out...but a nice job forecasting!
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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gee clark, thanks for taking care of the challenge.. saves me some effort. been trying to get DSL online here all evening, but the network keeps failing to register my computer.. troubleshooting blues here. thought i'd be through with dialup by now...
there will be another challenge dealing with track into early next week up and coming.
HF 0316z26august
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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OK, now I've had enough crow for the next two weeks...which ARE (or is it Typhoone AERE) going to be busy! Still, the one area I got closest to, is to me (any my completely untrained mind) is the West position. Almost nailed it again. Gotta think this one has EC potential, but will just enjoy my humble pie for the time being.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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