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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4112
Loc: Orlando, FL
Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up
      #21069 - Fri Aug 27 2004 09:17 PM

Tropical Depression #7 has formed off the coast of South Carolina, and is expected to move inland and be a rain event. It's not expected to strengthen much, but it depends on how long it remains over the water. Therefore Tropical Storm watches are up from Surf City in North Carolina to Fernandina Beach in Florida.



Frances is still moving along, and will be something to watch here in the US as the Labor Day weekend approaches. Right now it's forecast to continue to be in a favorible area for strengthening, and has a chance to become at Category 5 over water at some point. (Note I don't suggest that it will near any land as this) In any case Frances is looking very impressive on satellite.

More to come.

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LI Phil
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up [Re: MikeC]
      #21070 - Fri Aug 27 2004 09:25 PM

Thanks for the new forum Mike!

TD7 is probably just a fairly strong rainmaker, but anyone in NC & SC had better pay some close attention..could ramp up. Frances is the bigger worry, but that's a week or more away.

Everyone stay safe.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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caneman
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up [Re: LI Phil]
      #21072 - Fri Aug 27 2004 09:36 PM

I personally think it will be JAcksonville or Georgia that will get the visit as it seems to be drifting South but what they hey do I know..

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HuRRi
Unregistered




Re: Frances [Re: caneman]
      #21078 - Fri Aug 27 2004 10:15 PM

looks as if Frances has gone threw her first eyewall replacement tonight. It also looks like the movement in last few frames is more west than north! Think now she will pass closer to the islands than first thought. Also, may just be me, but had TD 7 gone farther south than forcasted? could it be possible TS watch in morning be drawn farther down into florida? Forecast for Fran... think somewhere near south florida in 6-7 days as cat 3-5. Also think in 4 days we will see the largest peace time evacuation in history, if she should threaten the SE U.S.... Also i see something trying to form off africa in two days.... August going out with a BANG!

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VADavid
Unregistered




Re: Frances [Re: HuRRi]
      #21079 - Fri Aug 27 2004 10:20 PM

If TD7 becomes TS Gaston and some of the other possibilities play out (Burmuda system and a E. Atl wave?), August 2004 will easily become the most active August (or month) ever if it isn't already.

BTW, does anyone know how many storms formed in the most active August and the most active month overall? I think 7 in September 2002 is the most for September and usually that month has more activitiy that August, but if anyone knows this stuff...

In any case, this is all insane; we've had what could be an entire season in 28 days.


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edwinberrios
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Frances [Re: HuRRi]
      #21080 - Fri Aug 27 2004 10:31 PM

Before I read your post I was showing the same westerly movement to my wife. I agree that over the past two or three hours (I am writing this at 10:30 PM) Frances seems to have started moving on a more westerly direction. Lets see what the 11 PM Forecast brings.

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HuRR
Unregistered




Re: Frances [Re: edwinberrios]
      #21081 - Fri Aug 27 2004 10:44 PM

NHC eye getting bigger!

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Frank P
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Frances [Re: edwinberrios]
      #21082 - Fri Aug 27 2004 10:49 PM

per NHC it should track on a NW to WNW track for the next 24 hours.... this is consistent with what I've see lately on the IR loops...... looks to be more WNW than NW but really hard to pinpoint with IR..... NHC said its been tracking about 310 degrees of late.... should start a more wnw track later in the forecast period..... the strenght of the ridge will determine where this system ends up.... anything is possible.... another Andrews track, Hugo possibly.... still too early to call but regardless looking like this thing could be a big problem for someone....

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JohnW
Unregistered




Re: Frances [Re: Frank P]
      #21083 - Fri Aug 27 2004 10:58 PM

with the eye replacement..... ususally within 6-12hrs there is a jump in intensification .... so i think she will grow tonight and into the morning and be a CAT 3 by lunch time sat.... i notice that the UKMET seems to somewhat on track with this forecast lately... The ridge seems to be picked now by more models and looks to be turning the more westerly than previous forecast.... i think she we brush the northern islands now and or create some very big surf....

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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
threats [Re: JohnW]
      #21086 - Fri Aug 27 2004 11:25 PM

close in: t.d. 7 is meandering.
the system is progged to go west and may or may not do this.. seeing model interpretations of invest 98L to the east indicating a binary interaction of the two. it may re-develop further south of it's current position. the NHC forecast has a recurving path.. my guess is that it will move more slowly and be less quick to respond to nearby changes in upper flow by the proximity to it's neighbor. expect it to organize at or slightly slower than indicated by official guidance and stay offshore longer as well. lots of subsidence in the area may keep it in check somewhat. may or may not get carried out by the westerlies as progged by the approaching shortwave.. potential to hang out longer than indicated.. especially if it interacts much with the system to the east.
further out: 98L.. potential system.
modeling has been less vigorous with this system, but i'm thinking it may be wrong to have less confidence. an upper vortex has drifted southwest overhead of the surface system, and like t.d. 7 it is now in an outflow-enhanced area. this system has a good chance to start developing tomorrow as it moves generally west. the more it develops, the more t.d. 7s current prog is thrown out the window. end result can easily be a system that moves NE of t.d. 7 (which should be gaston tomorrow) and gets carried out in it's stead near hatteras early next week.
thoughts on TD 7 and 98L are what i'll call unique... i usually don't stray that far from the official, but have some weird ideas about these systems i can't shake. probably two courses of crow, but who's counting?
far out but getting closer: cat3 Frances.
already beginning eyewall replacement cycles.. makes me doubt it will make cat 5 status.. thinking 4. purely a hunch, not something to take me to court on. long range prog right now is further south than what i was envisioning for the system early in the week.. much further south. a labor day weekend landfall of this system is what i'm going to go with. i'm not going to put in a location until the system is around 70w.. but am thinking the east coast of florida at this point. that will shift north if anything. safest bet is always the north carolina coast as a cat 2, but until i can see the floyd/isabel scenario taking shape.. and it is looking rather unlike that track (though also unlike Andrew, which i keep hearing but don't buy into). we have a week to watch this thing draw closer and fine tune it.. but until modeling starts poking holes in that ridge i'm becoming convinced that somebody gets nailed.
time to go post a challenge. we've got some bullets to dodge.
i'll shorten and borrow the usual parting comment from fox news' shepherd smith: stay aware.
HF 0325z28august


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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: threats [Re: HanKFranK]
      #21090 - Fri Aug 27 2004 11:49 PM

if Frances goes thru south central bahamas it will be on Andrew's track thru there. and there is a good chance it will be a very strong 4 or 5 very dangerous hurricane.

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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: threats [Re: HanKFranK]
      #21091 - Fri Aug 27 2004 11:52 PM

Nice job hank. Differnce between Frances and Floyed after 70W will be that there is no big trough over the eastern gulf 5 days from now, Infact past long term runs from 144-240 continue to show ridging in the mid and upper levels. Not going out like i posted earlier today on more then a 5 day forcast but unless models change, I dont see anything more then wnw during the next 7-10 day frame. Things will be interesting. Hurricane watches might go up as early as Sat night for the NE carribean islands.
scottsvb


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 338
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Golly.. [Re: MikeC]
      #21094 - Sat Aug 28 2004 12:27 AM

looks like there isn't much to make Frances turn more west the next 72 hours except the shear she's in right now. Am I reading this right?

All we need is an east to west coast Cat 4/5 down here right now. Not good.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Golly.. [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #21095 - Sat Aug 28 2004 12:50 AM

it's early. often these systems have a way of working out for the better.. Charley being the only major exception to that rule in the last ten years. Frances has already been hyped out the wazoo.. and it's still a week or so away. remember earl had lots of people pretty worked up just two weeks ago, and look what happened there. isabel, lili, floyd, Opal.. there is a long list of recent systems that could have been storm of the century, but fumbled ashore as 10-25 year storms.. odds are Frances will find a way to do the same.. assuming it makes it across (still not a certainty, but becoming a better bet with time).
HF 0450z28august


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Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Golly.. [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #21096 - Sat Aug 28 2004 12:50 AM

I live in Southern Brevard county (Palm Bay). For the last 2 weeks, all I have been hearing is how Southern Brevard doesn't get hit by hurricanes. And that how we were supposed to get Hurricane force winds here with Charley, and didnt. I have prepared for the last 3 or so storms that threatened to make appearances ( Floyd, Irene and recently Charley). Although we haven't been hit directly by these storms, doesn't mean it won't ever happen. Just wanted to get that out there. Hopefully people will always prepare themselves. And if it doesn't hit you, thank God. Consider your preparations as practice.

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Golly.. [Re: Floridacane]
      #21097 - Sat Aug 28 2004 01:12 AM

Yes you have to be prepared to #1 protect yourself from the storm, and #2 to be self sufficient for at least 3-7 days. Trust me help does not get to you quickly after the storm passes you, so you need to have enough supplies to get you through. Everyone gets very excited about these storms, inlcuding me, however, if you have ever had a hurricane pass through your city ( I have had 2, Andrew and now Charley) the worst part of the storm is the aftermath. Finding gas, waiting in long lines for ice, trying to find batteries and other essential items, going without electricity and water, its a major hassle. Not to mention the cleanup, having to wait for Insurance Adjusters (check your policy for a huge windstorm deductible if you live in FL) and then having to battle out claims with your insurance, trying to find roofers to temporarily dry your house in, and getting estimates from contractors who cant come out to see you for months which inturn delays your insurance claims, and then there is debri cleanup , this is all one major headache. Take it from me, the hurricane itself is a major and very dangerous rush, however, the aftermath is a major major pain in the A$$.

Again, check your insurance policy careful for huge deductables and also be aware that some major insurance companies have made some very major changes to your homeowners/windstorm insurance regarding coverage, or lack there of.. I have had to hire a Public Adjuster because of my Insurance Companies response. They are very very tight with their wallets these days... Mine wouldnt even cover hotel expenses when I was without water/power in my house.. So becareful and read your policies.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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mikeG
Unregistered




TD 7 [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #21099 - Sat Aug 28 2004 02:09 AM

Looking at sat for last 6hrs on TD 7 seems to show it getting better organized. There is great banding over center and to the east of center. Storms are starting to wrap around low level. We could have a TS by 11:00am, or atleast by 5:00pm... Think recon later today will help upgrade to a storm... if anything else, it looks to be heading now SSW AT 5 or so....

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Golly.. [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #21100 - Sat Aug 28 2004 02:12 AM

Sorry to hear that things are still such a mess. Hope that the red tape will end soon for you all. If and when you have time
maybe you could make up a quick checklist for others to go by on the Disaster board.
For those who want to check and see if their area has been hit before. NOAA has a Historical Hurricane Tracks web site.
http://hurricane.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: TD 7 [Re: mikeG]
      #21101 - Sat Aug 28 2004 02:21 AM

I just heard one of the mets/Hur Hunters, on Wx Chan just say the same thing. The wrap was different and the lat/longs and distance from Charleston had changed in the last 3 hrs.
Also stated that they thought Frances was ending her eyewall cycle and might begin to strengthen again.


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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: TD 7 [Re: danielw]
      #21102 - Sat Aug 28 2004 02:48 AM

yeah, think Frances is making comeback now. IR in last hr is better than 3hrs ago. Also, eye appears to have gotten bigger since replacement.... Forward speed has slowed alot and it seems a north jog durning eye replac. may have taken place...a wobble here, means hundreds of miles difference in 5 days. Still i am going with a SE florida landfall though, into GOM....

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