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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up [Re: MikeC]
      #21173 - Sat Aug 28 2004 04:25 PM

frances is exploding. she is rapidly intensifying. the eye is in the center of the CDO .....very scary pics. she very well could become the most powerful hurricane in this part of the atlantic. the pressure is now in the 27....im afraid she's a very strong cat. 4 now. a 5 down the road. goes12 has the pics......wow...

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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength [Re: Keith234]
      #21174 - Sat Aug 28 2004 04:27 PM

I'm not even noticing Gaston much. Gaston is just gonna cause a rainy and wet period wherever it goes...unless it stalls out there. If it doesn, rapid building is certainly not out of the question. Gaston has already built to near hurricane strength, and few thought that might happen.

Frances has as good a chance to get to a biggee soon. It will be interesting to see how long Frances can stay at this level. I had heard of a "life-cycle" on the bigger canes, and watching this might make us take a little credence to that theory.

Moving just fast enough, and over open waters...watch what happens if it kicks more west. Then the old theory of "making it's own weather" kicks in. The upper level high it builds strengthens, and it becomes somwhat impervious to anything in its way, except happless land masses....like Mobile, for instance....oh,, well, first Frances will punish MIami with cat 5 gnashing of the teeth.....then loop to Mobile as a docile category 4...or perhaps....graze the keys...and then loop toward New Orleans, and wipe that city out...


this year looks like it might punish the insurance companies...
a real widow-maker


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up [Re: meto]
      #21175 - Sat Aug 28 2004 04:32 PM

I don't think she'll be the strongest hurricane in that part of the ocean, because then she'll have to beat 888 milibars remember Gilbert? And that would be crazy.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
HOLY 5H!+! [Re: rickonboat]
      #21176 - Sat Aug 28 2004 04:37 PM

Couldn't leave for the beach...damn weather...can't live without it!

This WV loop ought to put the fear of god into every resident on the east coast...While it's only a theory, with some plausible basis in fact, when these storms get this strong, they create their own weather. Look at Frances outflow...blowing the dry air away...holy S--T! I got a feeling that she's gonna blow right thru any ridge that may be in her way and take the path of least resistance right to the coast. Good god this is one strong storm. I don't toss around "CAT V" casually, but if I were a resident of the Bahamas, I'd be on the first plane out of there. For those Bahamians who can't afford to get away, they better add another couple layers of mud to their huts...

I hope no one scorned Frances, cause hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.

Edit: Rick, didn't read your post about "making it's own weather," just saw it now. You thinkin' what I'm thinkin'?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Sat Aug 28 2004 04:39 PM)


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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: Tropical Depression 7 Forms off South Carolina Coast, Tropical Storm Watches Up [Re: Keith234]
      #21177 - Sat Aug 28 2004 04:38 PM

gilbert did not get that low until it was in central carrib. this is in the atlantic. and it reminds me of gilbert very much.

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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: Cat 4 [Re: LI Phil]
      #21178 - Sat Aug 28 2004 04:39 PM

Cat 4 Hurricane! Frances winds are up

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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: Cat 4 [Re: MikeG]
      #21179 - Sat Aug 28 2004 04:43 PM

you can see just how dangerous this hurricane is by the satt photos. it is a classic c.v. hurricane. winds prob near 140

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Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength [Re: rickonboat]
      #21180 - Sat Aug 28 2004 04:44 PM

Geez Rick can you cool it just a bit. While I can appreciate what your saying, I think most folks would just as soon take a bit more serious approach to Frances about now. A lot happening on the tropical scene almost hourly now and some observations on what is happening and not big time speculation on what coulda mighta happen might be more reasonable.
Hurric

Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane Season


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Officially a CAT IV [Re: Hurric]
      #21181 - Sat Aug 28 2004 04:54 PM

Frances officially a CAT IV, Hurricane watches up for SC with Gaston.

Hurric, that just our Rick...let him go...one of these years a CAT V will end up in Mobile Bay and then we can all look back fondly and say...that sumbitch was RIGHT. Until such time, it's just funny.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Re: Officially a CAT IV [Re: LI Phil]
      #21182 - Sat Aug 28 2004 04:56 PM

Do you know how many days Isabelle maintained cat 5 winds?
I know she didn't "wind down" like exspected.


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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Re: Officially a CAT IV [Re: LI Phil]
      #21183 - Sat Aug 28 2004 05:06 PM

Course, now that Frances is so strong, look for another eye replacement cycle...at least one or two more, and she will also increase in overall size. Additionally, one might surmise the models don't deal as realistically with a cat 4-5 cane, since they probably don't understand all the data, rare as they are. My gut feel is that the general wnw direction, as I see it heading now...will not vary much. I could be dead wrong, cause I am a real novice. Just remember how "straight" a path GIlbert and Andrew,....the biggies....tended to run.

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
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Re: HOLY 5H!+! [Re: LI Phil]
      #21184 - Sat Aug 28 2004 05:11 PM

Well, the French scorned Frances - they didn't like the name, asking for it to be retired. It was agreed that this would be the last time, and boy is this one going to go out with a bang. The NHC 5-day track is scary, placing it in the central Bahamas as a 125-kt hurricane on a beeline for Miami in 7 or so days.

(FYI: the NHC official track, almost since the beginning, has been following the FSU Superensemble nearly to a T. If I could get on campus to take a look at it right now, I'd expect more of the same.)

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
Re: Officially a CAT IV [Re: LI Phil]
      #21185 - Sat Aug 28 2004 05:11 PM

Phil, You would think he'd be loadin up the boat and headin south to Panama about now instead of playing on the net.
Hurric


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Officially a CAT IV [Re: rickonboat]
      #21186 - Sat Aug 28 2004 05:19 PM

Yo Rick, my good neighbor to the east... as I've said numerous times, this is going to be all about the ridge of high pressure that will be steering this monster... you're gonna need something to make this beast change, weakness in the ridge, front, something... if the ridge holds out to be as stong as most of the models make it out to be, then this thing is not going to pull a Floyd... and Fl is right in its path, maybe down the road the models miss an undetected weakness in the ridge and Frances slips through, and we get the north component, very possible, maybe.. .... another wide card.. Gaston should be well out of the way and if anything might help pump up the ridge reinforcing that wnw track down the road..... eventually its going to turn NW then N, where, is the million dollar question... or perhaps a 40 billion dollar question if this hits as a Cat 4 or 5... and that's still a big IF

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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Officially a CAT IV [Re: rickonboat]
      #21187 - Sat Aug 28 2004 05:19 PM

Well I Crawled away becuse of phil, but i will also crawl back for this storm. Phil I did not major in english so please exuse me if my spelling is not perfect. water temps in the bahamas are 30 - 32 degrees celsius. Lets not forget its 7 days away (7) A lot can happen joe dose not have a clue but he hints @ carolinas. But If it does enter the bahamas it will hit florida and lets not forget 1935 labor day hurricane should things pan out as forcast today 888 and 180-200 mile per hour plus are not a far out possibility.

Robert...I'm not trying to drive you or anyone away...it's just that Mike & John have established a few simple rules. Play by them and you're always welcome to post here. Cheers, LI Phil

Edited by LI Phil (Sat Aug 28 2004 07:44 PM)


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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
eyewall [Re: Frank P]
      #21188 - Sat Aug 28 2004 05:23 PM

....eyewall seems 50% larger...heading wnw

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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: eyewall [Re: rickonboat]
      #21189 - Sat Aug 28 2004 05:27 PM

I agree - the eye has been steadily growing through the day, and taking a more westerly component in movement as far as I can tell by the grid lines.

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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Re: eyewall [Re: rickonboat]
      #21190 - Sat Aug 28 2004 05:28 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Just incredible.
The storm basically fills in the box.
50-55 and 15-20
What is that 310 square miles?


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
New Orleans area forcast.... long term [Re: Robert]
      #21191 - Sat Aug 28 2004 05:28 PM

NO area forecast this afternoon.....hmmmm

THE TRACK OF THE VERY STRONG HURRICANE Frances WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WHICH MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AFTER DAY 7...NEXT SATURDAY.

Well Sir Frances has gotten their attention ..... as I'm sure its going to get quite a few of the different area's long term forecast's attention..... you can't rule out the GOM at this time... maybe later in the week, but right now you can't rule out anything...


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Officially a CAT IV [Re: Frank P]
      #21192 - Sat Aug 28 2004 05:30 PM

Quote:

another wide card.. Gaston should be well out of the way and if anything might help pump up the ridge reinforcing that wnw track down the road..... eventually its going to turn NW then N, where, is the million dollar question... or perhaps a 40 billion dollar question if this hits as a Cat 4 or 5... and that's still a big IF


The GFS solution http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_p06_l_loop.shtml is starting to look better (or worse depending on where you live, than it did this morning. I think the NHC is starting to think so also as it is now showing a track S of the UKMET which had been almost neck and neck with the official NCH track.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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