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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Frances track [Re: doug]
      #21493 - Mon Aug 30 2004 10:21 AM

Just in from the MLB wx folks:

FRI-SUN...00Z GFDL AND GFS BEGINNING TO SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE NORTH OF Frances AND A TURN TO THE NW EAST OF THE AREA NEAR 77
DEGREES WEST BY SAT. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET AND CANADIAN
KEEP A STRONGER RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND TRACK THE SYSTEM
TWD JUPITER INLET AND THE FL KEYS RESPECTIVELY. THE 00Z GFS HAD THE
BENEFIT OF 43 ADDITIONAL DROPSONDES ACROSS THE ATLC WHICH SHOULD
HAVE HELPED THE ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT AROUND Frances.
FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BEYOND DAY 5
WITH THE CAVEAT THAT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS STILL WITHIN THE 325 TO
400 NM ERROR CONE AT THIS TIME RANGE AND THERE IS STILL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY WHEN Frances WILL MAKE A TURN (AND TO WHAT DEGREE).

I think this says it all. GFS hopfully wins, but SE Fla still can win the booby prize.

PS http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!

Edited by Ricreig (Mon Aug 30 2004 10:37 AM)


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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: Frances track [Re: Ricreig]
      #21494 - Mon Aug 30 2004 10:39 AM

HOW MUCH
THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IS CRITICAL FOR THE LONGER-RANGE TRACK OF
THIS HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE GFDL MODEL
FORECAST TRACK HAS GENERALLY BEEN SHIFTING MORE WESTWARD WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE RUN.

IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT A
POINT AND FORECASTS AT THESE EXTENDED TIME RANGES CAN EASILY HAVE
ERRORS OF SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.

Straight from the horse's mouth, the 11am NHC discussion. Everybody needs to be weary and cautious with Frances.


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Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Frances track [Re: Ricreig]
      #21495 - Mon Aug 30 2004 10:41 AM

This is from the 7 day by county forecast on the Melbourne Weather Service site for all of East central Florida:
POWERFUL HURRICANE Frances IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
THURSDAY MORNING THEN CURVE NORTHWEST...APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND. OCEAN SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ROUGH POUNDING SURF AND POSSIBLE
BEACH EROSION TO THE COASTLINE. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW CLOSE HURRICANE
FRANCES WILL COME TO CENTRAL FLORIDA OR WHERE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL.
EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT PREPARATION TIME BECOMES VERY LIMITED AS A
HURRICANE NEARS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE URGES PEOPLE IN EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO HAVE SUPPLIES ON HAND AND A PLAN IN PLACE WELL IN
ADVANCE OF ANY HURRICANE BECOMING AN IMMEDIATE THREAT.

YOU ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON Frances
FROM THE National Hurricane Center. STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS REGARDING
FRANCES THAT ARE SPECIFIC TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE.

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori

Edited by Floridacane (Mon Aug 30 2004 10:42 AM)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Gaston [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #21496 - Mon Aug 30 2004 10:45 AM

satellite
radar

Gaston is still well organized--is it at all possible that it could move back out over water and regenerate like Danny in 1997?


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hankie
Unregistered




Re: Frances track [Re: Floridacane]
      #21497 - Mon Aug 30 2004 10:50 AM

you people are alarmists!

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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Gaston [Re: Rabbit]
      #21498 - Mon Aug 30 2004 10:51 AM

has anyone seen whats comming off of Africa?
97L

there have already been 8 storms this month--could there be 9??

Edited by Rabbit (Mon Aug 30 2004 10:54 AM)


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Frances track [Re: hankie]
      #21500 - Mon Aug 30 2004 10:54 AM

I think that the Carolinas are the most likely destination. However, the cone of error keeps all of Florida well within it at the moment. Probably get a better feel tomorrow afternoon into Wednesday. It would not hurt to check or resupply your hurricane kits. Frances will be a large storm, which may help keep her from getting back up to cat 4, if we are lucky she will fall to cat 2.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 838
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Frances track [Re: hankie]
      #21501 - Mon Aug 30 2004 10:55 AM

The models on Wednesday will be critical.

--------------------
doug


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Frances track [Re: Rasvar]
      #21502 - Mon Aug 30 2004 10:56 AM

What's with the turn at the end of the forecast period? Carolina bound maybe?

frances' track

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: Frances track [Re: Rasvar]
      #21503 - Mon Aug 30 2004 10:56 AM

Let's just keep our supplies on hand.............I am feeling awful about those in your area Kississimmee....................

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Gaston [Re: Rabbit]
      #21505 - Mon Aug 30 2004 10:59 AM

Quote:

has anyone seen whats comming off of Africa?
97L

there have already been 8 storms this month--could there be 9??




Yes, look at
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/index_ten_m_loop.shtml
and see what the GFS shows hanging off the coat tails of Frances on 9/15 or so.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Frances track [Re: hankie]
      #21506 - Mon Aug 30 2004 11:02 AM

Quote:

you people are alarmists!


Better be alarmed and informed rather than entertained and dead like the TWC. This forum is a good place to express facts, interpretations and opinions. Often, we present the facts as we know them and look to other to help interpret them.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: Frances track [Re: Ricreig]
      #21507 - Mon Aug 30 2004 11:05 AM

Isn't it best to prepare for the worst?

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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Frances track [Re: Ricreig]
      #21508 - Mon Aug 30 2004 11:11 AM

Pressure around the 5th is expected to be 954, which I assume would translate to 125 mph

The other system on the 14th is forecast at 986, which would be Cat I

and there could be another system behind that one

lots of storms being hurled at the southeast coast this year, just in a single month


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Frances track [Re: Redbird]
      #21509 - Mon Aug 30 2004 11:24 AM

Quote:

Isn't it best to prepare for the worst?


Yes, especially when there is any doubt what-so-ever as is the case with Frances. In answer to the 'alarmist' post earlier by another, I would only add you don't wait to call the fire department when the house is already burnt to the ground, you call it at the first whiff of smoke! That's not being alarmist, it is being prudent.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Frances track [Re: Rabbit]
      #21510 - Mon Aug 30 2004 11:25 AM

Model runs over the next 5 days are going to be sooo important. I will post my 3 and 5 day forcasts later today on here and hopefully we will have a new thread up. As of my post 3 days back my 3 day forcast is right on. 5 day of it being near 20-21N and 70 looks close. Pattern is evoloving now with upper trough to the west and moving w. Somehow as a forsight into the future I suspect after a turn towards wnw near 70 a turn more westerly again near 75. But when the turn again NW? before on or after florida? I think i went too far already, will post later today. scottsvb

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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Frances track [Re: Rabbit]
      #21511 - Mon Aug 30 2004 11:29 AM

Looks like Frances will pass 60W to the south of 20N....inside the Hebert Box benchmark. The NHC has been tending to follow the GFDL model in recent forecasts. Now they are becoming more alarmed since, just as they start to show confidence in a late NW turn, the GFDL is swinging back west. I wonder if this is because the hurricane has been moving almost due west for around 18 hours now, skewing the models. (?) Also, I see the forward speed as doubling since yesterday...though not reflected as such in official statements. But, look at the following past storm plots:

8/29.. 5am: 54.1W
8/29.. 11am: 54.7W (movement west of .6 degrees)

8/30.. 5am: 57.3W
8/30.. 11am: 58.7W (movement west of 1.4 degrees)

I believe the hurricane is moving more like 15-18mph, as opposed to the official line of 12mph. The implications down the road could be enormous. A faster moving storm early on will result in a position farther west before any northward turn occurs..increasing the danger to Florida.
As for intensity, I do believe when recon gets out there this afternoon, they will find she has strengthened...the satellite presentation has much improved. The eye is very small with very intense convection continuing to fire around the center....quite a different picture from last evening.

--Lou


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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: Frances track [Re: Ricreig]
      #21512 - Mon Aug 30 2004 11:30 AM

Ric in full agreement with all your points....................it is safer to plan as you said.

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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Link to current conditions in Antigua [Re: MikeC]
      #21513 - Mon Aug 30 2004 11:35 AM

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TAPA.html

Looking at the Visible:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Looks like Antigua will start feeling affects from the extreme outward bands.


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Cane Watcher
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Loc: ATL/ via Melbourne 33.36N 84.29W
Re: Frances track [Re: Redbird]
      #21514 - Mon Aug 30 2004 11:37 AM

Longtime lurker, first time post. I saw this on the Florida Today website and thought it would be somewhat useful to the discussion. I sure hope she recurves northward, I have a lot of family in that area.

FLORIDA ANGLE
National Hurricane Center computer models show a subtropical ridge blocking a northward turn by Frances through three days.

However, forecasters say the ridge should weaken beyond 72 hours, allowing the hurricane to start its recurveature toward the northwest.

This means a possible close call for Florida. The current 5-day track has Frances in the northern Bahamas east of West Palm Beach on Saturday morning.

The track shows Frances moving northwest, meaning South Florida and possibly Central Florida will escape a direct hit, but will be buffetted by the west side of the hurricane.

In its late morning update today, hurricane center forecaster said how much
the ridge will weaken is critical for the longer-range track of this hurricane.

They also warned that forecasts of more than 72 hours out can have
errors of several hundred miles.

- FLORIDA TODAY


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