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The latest model runs suggest Florida and the Southeast coast up to Cape Cod should pay VERY close attention to #Matthew.
# of days since last Hurricane Landfall - US: Any 29 (Hermine) , Major: 3994 (10 y 11 m) (Wilma) Florida - Any: 29 (Hermine) Major: 3994 (10 y 11 m) (Wilma)
13.3N 72.5W
Wind: 160MPH
Pres: 941mb
Moving:
W at 7 mph
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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: 97L [Re: Unregistered User]
      #21559 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:06 PM

Yes Richie it puts to rest that fable of some ridge always protecting the space coast. We are finding soon that it is a bunch of crap!

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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: Surf's Up dudes... [Re: joepub1]
      #21560 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:12 PM

Joe are you saying that a lot of events have to occur in order for us to get a hit?

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Surf's Up dudes... [Re: Redbird]
      #21562 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:22 PM

Fox news has started getting more urgent on its broadcast about Frances. I tend to look at this news provider as a sensation seeking news media, but, with the Republican Convention and several exotic sex trials going on I figure that Frances must be getting more interesting all the time. I tend to avoid being drawn into computer hysteria because the written word can be taken out of emotional context so easily. It seems like that Wednesday prediction of knowing more information may be speeded up if Frances continues to speed up.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 425
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Models On Frances [Re: Redbird]
      #21564 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:27 PM

I see that the models are agreeing to the westward tilt; again, not until Wednesday ( 3 day window) will I place a high confidence level on the models and where Frances can go as determined by the 'cone'.

--------------------
________2016 Forecast: 14/7/4________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Surf's Up dudes... [Re: LI Phil]
      #21565 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:31 PM

Phil,

I think that is still the 0829 18Z run, I don't think they have the 0830 18Z posted yet on NCEP, but the 0830 12Z is (use the same link, just change the 18 to a 12).

Bill


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1376
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment [Re: LI Phil]
      #21566 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:32 PM

Just wanted to post a few personal observations after riding out Hurricane Charley in Central Florida (Polk County) -- in which we were extremely lucky that we (my family) did not take the brunt of Charley.

As we all learned, the models can all be in the same general direction and for the most part, most of them were only about 70 miles off as to where landfall would occur. The only one that wasn't was the correct one -- the one that took it right into Ft. Myers/Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte. I don't think anybody believed at that point that we could go from a Cat 2 to Cat 4 just before landfall, but it happened. My county is still trying to recover from Charley, and we didn't even take the brunt of the 145mph winds.

We often hear this from the forecasters: "don't just look at the red line because there is a margin of error and it could hit anywhere in between that cone". I never paid much attention to that warning until Charley. Now I take it a lot more serious than I ever did. A 100 miles to the right or to the left of that track makes a huge difference, and here in Florida we learned that on August 13th. As for instensity, they now have it as a Cat IV on Sunday/Monday morning and I'm not sure if they are even speculating as to what may happen when it crosses the very warm gulfstream waters. Also, if it does make a southeast Florida landfall (and I'm not saying it will) we have to take into consideration the Okechobee River. That is a HUGE body of water which would allow Frances to keep her instensity as it crosses the state/goes up the state, whichever happens. If it missed the Okechobee river to the left or to the right, we would still be looking at a very damaging hurricane upon landfall; if it crosses right across the middle, we could be looking at a Cat 4 or 5 as it makes it's way up/across the state of Florida, which would cause catastrophic damage for the entire state.

Am I being an alarmist? Absolutely not. I am looking at what happened with Charley. Charley crossed the state with 100mph winds and some people have nothing left. And THAT was what happened to the INLAND counties, and here in Polk County ALONE we have $700 million of damage. Charley woke us up, Frances might be a nightmare. There is absolutely nothing wrong with being prepared for a possible hit from Frances; actually, if you live along the eastern seaboard and are NOT prepared, it's pretty irresponsible. The NHC can only prepare you; state and local officials can order evacuations; but when it comes right down to it, YOU and you alone are responsible for protecting yourself, your family and your property.

Now...on to the models. Tampa Bays ABC Action New Channel 28 weather gal talked to one of the forecasters from the NHC during the 12 noon newscast. When asked when we could start REALLY looking at the possibility of whether or not we will get a direct hit, he said "Wednesday is going to be a very important day as to what we believe will happen with Frances, and all residents along the southeastern coast, especially Florida, really need to keep tuned in this whole week, especially from Wednesday on."

That comment came directly from the horse's mouth. Believe me, I DO NOT want to experience another hurricane at all. But that doesn't mean I can just ignore it and pretend it isn't out there.

That being said, I have put in an urgent request to Mother Nature to PLEASE kick Frances out to the N/NE; I'll let you know when she gets back with me. Probably around the same time I see the pigs flying across my backyard.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Surf's Up dudes... [Re: Redbird]
      #21567 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:33 PM

Joe are you saying that a lot of events have to occur in order for us to get a hit?

I'm saying a lot of the events that have to take place for the area north of West Palm Beach to the Georgia coast ( an area that takes very few direct hits) are in play. This is not the time to think about Floyd-Bertha tracks and chear ever little jog to the north. I think Frances will get pushed pretty hard to WNW one more time as she moves up the coast. How close she is to land, and how long it moves in that direction, I don't know. IMO the door to the north will close for at least a brief moment, but who knows, maybe she will be far enough out in the Bahama's to spare us.


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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: Surf's Up dudes... [Re: joepub1]
      #21568 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:36 PM

Thanks Joe...................still learning. I looked at all the spaghetti models on this site and well maybe I should leave those alone and concentrate on NHC. Not sure.

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 425
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Surf's Up dudes... [Re: joepub1]
      #21569 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:37 PM

Indeed, all we can do now is speculate, and even on Wednesday, no one can be 100% certain; only generally sure where Frances might go .

--------------------
________2016 Forecast: 14/7/4________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Surf's Up dudes... [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #21570 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:39 PM

All I will say is this, if that latest run of the GFS comes anywhere close to verifying, I will be moving out of Florida after it! That is a sure sign to me that we are not suppose to live here. I've seen drunken sailors walk straighter lines then that!

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment [Re: Colleen A.]
      #21571 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:40 PM

""Probably around the same time I see the pigs flying across my backyard.""

You just might see them pigs flying around in your backyard this weekend if this thing ends up heading your way...

For the past two days I've been saying Kennedy Space Center or south... could be wrong, probably will be... but my rationale is that the ridge will hold on long enough, and add the wild card of the increase in speed, so I'm going to stick to that projection right or wrong.. Like you Colleen I hope its turns out to sea.. don't think that is going to happen unfortunately.. this will be someone's heartbreaker for sure....

Frances looks great on the sat pix, looks rather big to I might add... could/should be a very historic week for parts of the east coast.... so glad its not my headache....


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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment [Re: Colleen A.]
      #21572 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:42 PM

Colleen those are very wise words............................I hate thinking that Charley was a dress rehearsal for something worse or the opening act of a major show but like you said, mother nature does what it does.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment [Re: Colleen A.]
      #21575 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:47 PM

Hi Colleen,
I am your Polk County neighbor and sure am hoping that you don't have any pigs flying through your back yard because they probably came over my back yard to get to yours. Actually if this storm comes in from the east coast, we will probably get some real pigs flying in from Wachula and other farm areas. If this hurricane decides to cross land in to the GOM which of course is speculation, there will be no place for any one to evacuate safely. I hesitate to imagine what the civil defense leaders will do in Polk County since some of its buildings proved to be unshelter worthy this last go around.
I am so hoping that the margins of error remain over the atlantic and do not include the United States Coast lines in any direction.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
Re: Surf's Up dudes... [Re: LI Phil]
      #21578 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:09 PM


Looking at the WV loop, the front appears to extend pretty far into the GOM, so why isn't it expected to pick up Frances and pull her N-NE like it did with Gaston and Hermine?

Did I miss this in an NHC discussion somewhere?


Allison


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CAPE CORAL
Unregistered




Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #21579 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:15 PM

Hello all and comming from Cape Coral just west of Ft Myers along the gulf getting prepared for a major storm is never to early. Even with percautions I still racked up $24000 in damage. I am not ready for any more storms. Get prepared now don't wait. Changes on forecast tracks are going to happen and anyone along the Florida coast need to get prepared. This is not an anxious message, its a living thru a hurricane message. I saw what could happen and I thought I was prepared. I WASN'T!!!!!! Get things ready so when the time to act is here your ready to do what you have to do. Better safe than sorry !!!!

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delta
Unregistered




Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms [Re: MikeC]
      #21583 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:26 PM

The latest ukmet model.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment [Re: CAPE CORAL]
      #21585 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:32 PM

So wed at 5pm will be the day that we know if this is FL or NC storm ?

Does the faster west movement today change the forecast track alot ?

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment [Re: HCW]
      #21600 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:50 PM

anyone think we'll have TD9 by the end of the day?

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
NEW THREAD [Re: Rabbit]
      #21603 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:54 PM

Mike made a new thread about a hour ago. You guys need to post over there.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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