Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Neither do I. I just now looked up my coordinates at http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/gazetteer-tbl and it says that I am at
28.01N 80.67W
THis might make you feel a teeny tad better...from the 11pm forecast:
96hr VT 03/0000z 24.5n 74.5w 110 kt
120hr VT 04/0000z 26.5n 77.0w 110 kt
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Lake Toho
Unregistered
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Seems like they are going more with a solution for the time being.. In past forecasts they have been more inline with a compromise between UKMET and solution. Think they maybe overworked writing Discussions, maybe they decided for the time being it doesnt matter what they write, and Mr Lawrence decided, tonight I instead of a compromise solution, I am just going to go with the model, as I do not need to figure coordinates, the model give me what I need and I can go back to my hand of poker with my fellow .. LOL... (I digress)
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Lake Toho
Unregistered
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Did anyone else find the forecast for tonight ODD ? 110 Knots across the board and a track directly off the latest ?
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE WIND NEAR 110 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
THEN REDUCES IT TO UNDER 100 KT AFTER 72 HOURS. THE IS
SIMILAR. THE AND UKMET ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE BUT THESE MODELS
ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL AS THE SHIPS AND . THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS 110 KT THROUGH 120 HOURS AS A COMPROMISE OF THE ABOVE
GUIDANCE...REALIZING THAT OUR SKILL AT INTENSITY FORECASTING LEAVES
SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED...ESPECIALLY AT LONGER FORECAST PERIODS.
...THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH THE IS 50 TO
100 N MI SOUTH OF THE OTHER MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT THEN COMES
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BY 120 HOURS WHEN ALL OF THE MODELS TEND TO
CONVERGE ON THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS
AND IS SIMILAR TO IT AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 30 2004 03:18 AM)
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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This model is pretty good with surf predictions, it has the storm taking a floyd recurve track through abaco then n it has the center 300 miles ne of me here in stuart shows 36+ feet out for a hundred miles and 21-26 feet just off the coast with side shore winds. The beaches here wont hold that sise surf but down in miami where its supposed to be 15-20 feet the botttom there can hold it and its forcast to be offshore winds.
So for anyone who is interested in surfing, reef road to goverment cut is the place to go on friday if we do not get hit.
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Did anyone else find the forecast for tonight ODD ? 110 Knots across the board and a track directly off the latest ?
THeir reasoning seemed sound and maybe models actually can get it right once in a while. Speaking of which: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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et1516
Unregistered
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look only to david 1979 to see a repeat. same time of year, same intensity, cv storm, and coast hugger followed gulf stream.
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et1516
Unregistered
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due to size and prox to coast we could be looking at a wide spread evac for the south with many not getting hit but many getting out of the way of a left hook turn. too close not to evac especially after assumptions see floyd 1999 ugh...
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/cgi-bin/...ion=Orlando+Fla
THis means I can retire for the evening  It isnt supposed to get withing 240 mises <2% chance by 70 hours...guess I can sleep tonight, worry tomorrow.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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BillD
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Loc: Miami
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70 hours is going on three days/nights, so you should get a good nights sleep for at least the next two nights, like we all should. No reason for anyone to even think about worrying until later this week.
Bill
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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GFS model update is up.
It shows just north of the Myrtle Beach,SC area poised for a Monday, Sep 6th, afternoon/evening landfall.
**Note: This is the same model that showed making a landfall in Mobile,AL on Wednesday Sep 8th. So there is quite a difference this far in advance of the storm. Don't turn your back and let your guard down. This was the 192 hour forecast model.**
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_192s.gif
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Just throwing some thoughts out here, but if Frannie decides to take a route that would lead it into the GOM, there will be a mess of royal proportions there. Being the Labor Day weekend, The main beaches on the GOM are already gonna be packed, as well as the hotels in New Orleans for Southern Decadence. I just don't see getting everyone out of those areas in time, but I don't have the experience that the EM's have.
Another scenario having Frannie come on shore in South Georgia would probably cause utter chaos because of the last mass evacuation from the Georgia Coast. You probably will not find any rooms next weekend from Valdosta probably to north of Atlanta.
Just a gut feeling, but I think that we all should head out to the Red Cross this week and donate something or anything we can, because wherever this monster hits, it's gonna be bad. I pray that it doesn't, but I'm really a bit spooked by the forecasts now.....And heck I'm up here in Atlanta......
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Plane has been in and out of since 06Z. First fix gave a 958mb pressure and max. flight level winds of 88kts.
Second fix gave a pressure of 958mb and maximum flight level winds of 99kts.
NHC/TPC decided to split the information from all the agencies and came up with a 105kt maximum sustained wind.
This was mainly due to 2 of the 3 satellite agencies categorizing with higher wind speeds than Recon found. You can read the whole discussion by clicking "Frances", under the "Current Storms" heading. The discussion gives 's justification for Not lowering the wind speed.
Latest visual pics don't show the small eye. It is visible on the other shots. LSU sat pics are starting to show -75 to -80degree cloud tops on the SW quadrant.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg
Hermine: Is showing more convection at this time, and nearing the Gulf Stream.
Gaston: Remains of Gaston are drifting ENE over mid NC.
Drifting toward Hermine. Another record in the making. Having 2 cyclones in a 5deg by 10 deg area.
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
70 hours is going on three days/nights, so you should get a good nights sleep for at least the next two nights, like we all should. No reason for anyone to even think about worrying until later this week.
....I won't have time to worry then.
When it gets close enough to worry, I'll be packing and moving myself, my cat and my valuables to safer locations. *Then* I won't have time to worry. 
For now, while I have time, I collect and evaluate information, make plans, prepare for the worst, and ... worry ...
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Mon Aug 30 2004 11:29 AM)
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Plane has been in and out of since 06Z.
The 5 am forecast exerpt:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 19.0N 57.3W 105 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 19.1N 59.2W 105 KT
This thing is CURRENTLY well south of all of us (in the US) and models or no, until it is NORTH of where you are, you are not out of danger *yet*.
I am personally glad to see the projections showing that this storm is weakening slightly and may not be Cat IV if landfall occurs, maybe not even CAT III, and am also glad that the projections also show that the storm *may* not do more than *SCARE* Florida, but I also don't wish whatever the storm remains capable of wreaking to be inflicted on any of my neighbors to the north (unless of course they are Yankees  ). Now is the time to be very aware of what is happening NOW and continue preparations just in case.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Florida Big Bend
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Yes, I was thinking I have never seen two cyclones so close together...amazing they aren't doing the binary interaction (fujiwhara) thing!
Also, Gaston still has an 'eye' feature this am...maybe he will regenerate once over the water??
Frances==we will see.....
sc 
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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I beleive the intensity will increase as the shear decreases and she is just entering 28-30c SST's. The track is starting to show a slow wnw-nw track possible sparing south fl. but until she passes I'm on guard. :?:
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Ricreig
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Very busy in the Tropics today.]
MikeC, if you have time please ake a look at the most recent animated model:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/index_ten_l_loop.shtml
What is the showing here? *ANOTHER* storm right behind ? This time impacting the Fla coast after a near miss by ? Is this the wave you alluded to when you started this thread? If so, you're good, very good, to have picked up on this in the midst of all of the close-in excitement.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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I am feeling a lot better.... I have to belive that we will be spared a second on slought of Hurricanes this year. The storm can stay out to sea ..... I am hopeing that it was enough to scare the willies out of all of us and just skirt us here in Florida The radios and tv's are going bonkers... is all you hear. If people didn't get the message with not sure they ever will. We get our hurricane stuff together the first of June and disban it the end of October. Keep listening and paying attention should it come our way ... in several hours like 144 hours or so
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I don't think Gaston will regenerate unless it transitions into something su-tropical, otherwise it's energy will linger but I am suprised that it still has an eye feature, that's a very organised tropical storm.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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