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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Hermine Raises TS Warnings for Cape Cod, Frances Track Questions
      #21573 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:45 PM

4:45 PM
The remnants of Gaston are continuing to dump lots of rain and spawning Tornados in southeast Virginia.

The Frances 5PM Update has the track a bit to the left, placing the risk for the Florida Peninsula up higher. Assuming the track verifies, landfall would occur Saturday. It's too early to pinpoint where exactly it will hit too (and what strength). (GA And the Carolinas aren't out of the woods yet either)

Folks along the entire Florida East coast must watch this system over the next few days. Watch for trends in the models. If they trend westward Palm Beach down to Miami will need to watch, if the tracks hold then central Florida will need to watch more

If they trend right, then a brush will happen and the Carolinas will need to keep watch closer. If the more southerly route happens, it could become a gulf concern as well.

To restate the National Hurricane Center, it is extremely important not to focus the exact track, especially at the long ranges the maps show. The hurricane isn't a point, and Frances is a large system. Forecast errors that far out can be off several hundred miles. Don't use the "point track" as a guide right now.

Stay tuned.
.
Original Update

Tropical Storm Hermine is getting close enough to Southeastern Massachusetts to cause Tropicla Storm Watches along the coast there, including most of Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard. Expect a nasty overnight there.

The remnants of Gaston are near the North Carolina and Virginia borders right now dumping loads of rain and some minor wind.



The biggest question for most people is about Hurricane Frances. This weekend will be interesting for Florida and the Southeast. It becomes another race for recurvature similar to other storms with this path in the past... The question does it reach Florida before it curves or not?

It is indeed prudent to begin thinking of advanced preperations for the storm on the labor day weekend in Florida and southeast.

Although its still a little too soon to tell where it may wind up. I'd suspect to know somewhat better Wednesday. Models have trended left and right over the last day or two (left would mean more impact for Florida, right would put the Carolinas in the eye) Of course projections that far into the future aren't worth much.

With the latest model runs, it trended back left again. But I suspect it'll change again. Beware the hype with the storm, but keep focused on it during the week if you live along the areas including east coast of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas

Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley

General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Link to current conditions in Antigua [Re: MikeC]
      #21576 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:59 PM

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TAPA.html

Pressure down to 29.88


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Hermine Raises TS Warnings for Cape Cod, Frances Track Questions [Re: MikeC]
      #21577 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:00 PM

I think most agree we will know better by mid week and too much going on now but now a new Invest in the picture... way out so not a problem for now.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Hermine Raises TS Warnings for Cape Cod, Frances Track Questions [Re: MikeC]
      #21582 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:24 PM

Looking at some of the latest model runs, it looks like the current NHC forecast track is to the right side and even outside of model consensus. Wonder if they will make a significant move to the left at 5:00 or hold on for another set of runs before doing it?

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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Vortex Message [Re: Rasvar]
      #21586 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:33 PM


000
URNT12 KNHC 301845
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 30/1813Z
B. 19 DEG 23 MIN N
59 DEG 21 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2666 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 017 DEG 89 KT '
G. 296 DEG 26 NM
H. 948 MB
I. 12 C/ 3072 M
J. 17 C/ 3022 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO 18-48
N. 12345/7
O. 1 /1 NM
P. NOAA3 0506A Frances OB 09
MAX FL WIND 89 KT NW QUAD 1806Z

Is Frances strengthening???


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Hermine Raises TS Warnings for Cape Cod, Frances Track Questions [Re: Rasvar]
      #21587 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:34 PM

Hurricane hunters say they found the pressure back down to 948 mb this afternoon.

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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: Vortex Message [Re: recmod]
      #21588 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:35 PM

Recmod, where did you find the report, and is there a site that tells one how to read it?
Thanks


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Vortex Message [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #21589 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:37 PM

It's on the NHC page. Here is the link..which also explains how to decipher:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml

--Lou


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: Vortex Message [Re: recmod]
      #21591 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:38 PM

Yeah, she looks like it on sats...the satellite representation has really improved today...I'd be shocked if she isn't strengthening...

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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sailor
Unregistered




Re: Hermine Raises TS Warnings for Cape Cod, Frances Track Questions [Re: MikeC]
      #21593 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:42 PM

TPC finally issues a TS warning. This storm is at 50MPH moving north at 22 right straight towards Cape Cod and it doesn't seem to be getting weaker. There should have been a recon flight. Not much warning for marine interests.

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Sissy
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Heads up!!!! [Re: Rasvar]
      #21594 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:44 PM

Hi Everyone,

To all along the East Coast and inland, PLEASE make your preparations now. I was just at the local Walgreen's, and most of the batteries are gone. Plywood and generators are going fast as well at the Home Depots. I learned my lesson from Charley. Also, they are picking up debris in and around Orlando from Charley which tells me that the city is concerned as well. All those downed trees can be flying projectiles.

Stay safe!
Sissy


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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: Vortex Message [Re: recmod]
      #21595 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:44 PM

Thank you greatly, and I agree with Jason, that she looks very impressive on the satellite, and she well most definatly be upgraded, the only questions are to what degree and how will it affect us long-term...

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 837
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Vortex Message [Re: recmod]
      #21597 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:45 PM

I brlieve the intensity level is down...89kt flight level should not support 120mph...but we'll see. The sat pics show that Frances is now moving north of west pretty much as predicted.
My question is what the role of the ULL now rotating ove the Southern Bahamas will have on Frances track...It has not moved too much today...If it stays south and west of Frances, it could enhance inensity and help throw the storm back to the west in a hard turn, as some here and some of the model graphics seem to now begin to suggest.
Any way for now, I sense the intensity will fall to CAT II.

--------------------
doug


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Wobble? [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #21598 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:48 PM

Last two frames of floater 1 show what appears to be our first north (actually more like wnw) wobble...wonder if she's thinking about making that turn soon...interestingly her Dvorak's remained at 5.5/5.5 so maybe she isn't strengthening...however, now that the bird has given the recon data...the pressure drop would certainly lead one to believe she's strengthening...Guess we'll know more at 5:00.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Alex K.
Unregistered




Re: Vortex Message [Re: doug]
      #21599 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:50 PM



948 seems more like strong Cat 3/Cat 4 than Cat 2. Perhaps they have not foundt the strongest winds yet


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Wobble? [Re: LI Phil]
      #21602 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:53 PM

If the pressure dropped how could it not be strenghting, aren't storms classified by their pressure? I hope she makes the turn soon, otherwise the northern leeward islands would be recked.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: Wobble? [Re: Keith234]
      #21604 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:57 PM

Wind increases usually lag behind pressure drops by about 6-8 hrs...it will take a little while before the winds respond to the lower pressure.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
NHC Track [Re: Rasvar]
      #21605 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:58 PM

I don't know if they'll make a major adjustment to the left, but based on those new model runs + their concern over the GFDL model run, they may move it a little bit back to the left. It has been going back and forth for the last few days, which is normal. Time will tell.

I checked out the UKMET run that was posted (by Phil I think?) and if that verfies than Florida is going to be one big mess. They still haven't finished cleaning up all the debris here, either...and there is plenty of it. It will be a knock-out punch for all three parts of the state -- east coast, west coast, inland and northern gulf coast of Florida.

Imagine all the people coming here for the end of the summer weekend...and how many more people will have to evacuate? Ok, well that's all speculation and I really shouldn't do that, but I can't help it.

I'm beginning to feel like Dorothy in Kansas. The 5pm & 11pm discussions will be very interesting. So will the new tracks. If it does speed up, we may be looking at trouble earlier than we thought.

Or not.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Pressure falls [Re: Keith234]
      #21606 - Mon Aug 30 2004 03:58 PM

Yes, the pressure falls would indicate strengthening. Those are obtained with instrumentation on the plane and dropsondes, so I'd say that's much more reliable than the winds they found. As Alex said, maybe they haven't found the strongest winds yet. We'll know more at the 5:00. Hope Stacey Stewart gets to write it!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
Re: NHC Track [Re: Colleen A.]
      #21607 - Mon Aug 30 2004 04:02 PM

I posted this on the previous thread a few minutes ago before I realized a new thread was up and running...



Looking at the WV loop, the front appears to extend pretty far into the GOM, so why isn't it expected to pick up Frances and pull her N-NE like it did with Gaston and Hermine?

Did I miss this in an NHC discussion somewhere?


Allison


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