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Tropical Depression Two forms in Central Atlantic.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 18 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3193 (8 y 8 m) (Wilma)
12.2N 46.4W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1012mb
Moving:
W at 16 mph
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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Is this another wave in front of Frances? [Re: wxman007]
      #21804 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:28 AM

Was just looking at water vapor and shortwave and visible sats. Its looks to have good rotation and convection building at the center. IN front of Frances (over the islands already). Maybe some models are picking this up?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

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Edited by Lisa NC (Tue Aug 31 2004 01:32 AM)


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: Is this another wave in front of Frances? [Re: Lisa NC]
      #21805 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:40 AM

Lisa, we have discussed this about 80 posts back...lol...it is an upper low out ahead of Frances...not a tropical surface low. For more info scroll back about 80 or so posts...

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: Is this another wave in front of Frances? [Re: wxman007]
      #21806 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:41 AM

Thank you Jason

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Charley's Track and the Models [Re: Colleen A.]
      #21807 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:45 AM

Just logged in. I'll have to say I second the kudos to Jason and the gang for the updates. You do a great job here.
I noticed the NHC has added quite a few FL cities to the Strike Probs. Since I'm not much good at the models, I went back and checked their stats against Charley. NHC had Venice/ Ft Myers with the highest prob up to 36 hrs prior to landfall. I realize that just means that the possibility of the storm passing within 65nm was there. However, both of those cities continued to get higher probs. when NHC was giving Tampa lower probs. That's just my opinion and not necessarily those of the management. It may be a storm by storm situation. They hit dead on with some and miss with the others.
With that said, Miami and West Palm both have the highest probs as of the 11pm Advisory. Both have a 7 in column 'D'.


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Charley's Track and the Models [Re: danielw]
      #21808 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:05 AM

Yikes new model plots

new model plots

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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
And just to stoke up the fire a little more.... [Re: HCW]
      #21809 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:11 AM

Day 7 ECMWF

Anybody want to be in my shoes?

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more.... [Re: wxman007]
      #21810 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:15 AM

Saw that, and a few other globals getting close to the same situation.

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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more.... [Re: wxman007]
      #21811 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:16 AM

Looks like we all will be in your shoes here in Central Florida two days before you. Another direct hit in Orlando seems to be the trend. I hope Frances fools everone in the 11th hour like Charley.

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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more.... [Re: cyclone_head]
      #21812 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:22 AM

Quote:

Looks like we all will be in your shoes here in Central Florida two days before you. Another direct hit in Orlando seems to be the trend. I hope Frances fools everone in the 11th hour like Charley.




and steers it way right....sorry its late.......


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more.... [Re: cyclone_head]
      #21813 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:22 AM

Charley surprised more than he fooled.

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more.... [Re: danielw]
      #21814 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:38 AM

Has anybody noticed that the numerical models, well at least two of them, and maybe the GFS as well, got feed something into them that caused Frances to slow way, way down between 36-72 hrs.??? This is one of the most radical changes I've ever seen in a six hour period. Really goes completely against the NHC 11pm forecast, as well as most of the eariler globals. Wonder what's going on with that?

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Kimmie in LA
Unregistered




PCB [Re: wxman007]
      #21815 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:43 AM

Hi Jason, my parents just moved to PCB. Do you have a handle on the probabilites of this thing entering the Gulf? Should I tell my folks to high tail it over to our house in Louisiana? I know that they are watching closely and will be wanting to make a decision by Thursday morning. Thanks for all you do. Kimmie

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more.... [Re: joepub1]
      #21816 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:53 AM

Joe, judging from the number of dropsondes they released today I would venture to say they obtained quite a bit of extra data. I'm not sure if the data from that kind of dropsonde is comparable to the Gulfstream IV drops data. There should be some format that would let them utilize both types. Just my opinion.
Satellites are back up and Frances looks quite a bit healthier than at 0345Z.


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: PCB [Re: Kimmie in LA]
      #21817 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:54 AM

Kimmie,

In all honesty, tell them to watch me...it is WAAAAAY too early to make that call., but you can bet if the call needs to be made, I'll make it early and often.

If you or they have any questions I can answer, contact me directly.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more.... [Re: danielw]
      #21818 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:02 AM

...21.0 63.5 308mb flight level wind070deg at 50kts.
That looks to be due west of the eye, at the western edge of the cloud mass. I'm not sure what 300mb equals in altitude, but it's fairly high. This is from the last recon observation at 0620Z.
**Clarification-this IS Not the new position, just a reporting position on the way into or out of the storm. They have to send a report every 20-30 minutes or so, with data in it, and that position was where they were on their way out it looks like. They make all kinds of criss-crosses and zig-zags sometimes.**

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 31 2004 03:12 AM)


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more.... [Re: danielw]
      #21819 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:05 AM

welp they just got in there,,its not at 21N we can all see that, maybe 20 or was that just a misprint?

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more.... [Re: danielw]
      #21820 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:06 AM

Kimmie and others. You don't have to be registered, but if you will, when you can, register so we can send you Personal Messages without having to post them on the board. Then again, lots of the questions we have for the mets and others probably belong on the board. Thanks.
BTW-it's free to register!

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 31 2004 04:11 AM)


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more.... [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21821 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:10 AM

Naahhhh....that was a recon leg report, not a vortex center fix....the center of Frances is NOT at 21N, nor is that what the message says...the highest wind gust for that leg of the run was in that position.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more.... [Re: wxman007]
      #21822 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:17 AM

Sorry about that! I went back and put a clarification of the bottom of the post.
They have 105nm legs they fly, criss-crossing the storm. The 105nm is not set in stone and they can alter the leg as they see fit. There are about 5 different patterns they fly and they appear to be headed out of the storm to turn left and make another pass through the storm. I'll see if I can find a link for you to look at.
http://www.hurricanehunters.com/alpha.htm
Better link, with more patterns.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/cyclo/

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 31 2004 03:25 AM)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more.... [Re: danielw]
      #21823 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:24 AM

with the pressure of Frances bouncing around everywhere (948, 956, 945, 951) and not showing any general trend of continuous dropping, it is looking less likely that Frances will reintensify to Cat IV

It also appears now that it will take the more southerly track as it has been moving nearly due west for about a day now


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