scottsvb1
Unregistered
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That dont mean that it will track more on the southern route, the models overall moved more N and E but slightly. is the biggest mover to the NE while the moved more w slightly, is also a tad more N and Ukmet is about the same. Will throw out the ETA but it could be right but a tad more N of that. The models all predicted a w motion up to this morning with a turn wnw during today, lets see when it does.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The 11pm forecast advisory shows 05/0000Z- 28.0N/ 81.0W Inland!
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 28.0N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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The coordinates that have been given of 28N81w are where I live!
that 250 mile error. Is that in time of arrival or distance right/left of the coordinate?
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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0655Z Vortex report
H. 949 MB
P. AF966 0806A OB 08
MAX FL WIND 121 KT NW QUAD 0649Z. MAX FL TEMP 18C 138 DEG 13NM
FROM FL CENTER.
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
The coordinates that have been given of 28N81w are where I live!
that 250 mile error. Is that in time of arrival or distance right/left of the coordinate?
The coordinates are near downtown Orlando, maybe just SE a tad, the 120 hours is relative to the time of the forecast (Makes it late Saturday) and is based upon current and forecast speed. Errors noted say the distance can be a few hundred miles off by Saturday (Mia to Jax) and the top speed could be off by quite a bit also. Timing assumes speed is as predicted so could get here much earlier or possibly later. Bottom line, pay extra attention to this forecast, but be prepared for significant changes also....start your preparations now and be ready to take evasive action if required by Friday. Other than moving to safety if that is needed, you should already have your supplies and plans firmed up or completed.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Thanks. I live in a home that is supposed to meet minimum standards. Its a normal home. We have been prepared since was expected. With the shifting models and the error disclaimers, I was uncertain about the coordinates. I have a lot family in this area as well. Its not that long until we have to start final preparations for what ever may occur. Is Wednesday still the definitive day or has that been moved to a sooner time for Florida to get a more concrete notion of what to expect. ( I know from Charlie that this is a general answer no matter what)
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Frances is just beginning to show on the long range San Juan radar. Loops aren't workin at this time. Long range, still image here.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.tjua.shtml
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 31 2004 08:46 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...HERMINE HAS BECOME AND THE
CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST
OR ABOUT 60 MILES...EAST OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT
75 MILES... 125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY.
...CATEGORY THREE CONTINUING WESTWARD TRACK NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 26.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 28.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
*full updates available under "Current Storms" heading on the left sidebar*
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 31 2004 08:55 AM)
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GuppieGrouper
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Please comment on how this report impacts Florida in terms of time of hurricane over any particular land area of Florida if the track verifies within a 65-70 miles range. Thanks
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Thanks, I was just about to list some locations.
28.5N and 81.5W at 06Z (2AM edt) Sept 5th.
These are based on the 5 day Forecast and DO NOT compensate for the 325nm error possibility!!
From the GA/FL state line to Key West is 376nm. To give you an idea of how far 325nm is. That's a lot of Error.
KFPR-Ft Pierce airport......27.5N/ 80.4W
KCOF-Patrick AFB/ ...28.2N/ 80.6W
KMLB- NWS office...........28.1N/ 80.6W
*These coordinates are from the NWS list of reporting stations*
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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In other words, these estimates this far out are almost worthless except to say that they think the hurricane will threaten Florida. But, it might miss Florida to the left or Right of the Peninsula and they won't know for sure for 3 more days(?)
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Loc: United States
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Anything can happen, right up until she makes landfall. Being I am here slightly north of Daytona. Someone, PLEASE get out the Dyno gel...... 
Quote:
In other words, these estimates this far out are almost worthless except to say that they think the hurricane will threaten Florida. But, it might miss Florida to the left or Right of the Peninsula and they won't know for sure for 3 more days(?)
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Wxwatcher2
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Well, I see the models have changed a bit.
Should be an interesting day.
People are already cleaning out the store shelves in Central Florida.
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Maitland, FL
Unregistered
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I going out and doing shopping today before the selves are clear out here in East Central Florida. Looks by the current models, its going to go right over the top of my house. Thank goodness I live in a strong one. 
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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The NWS Melbourne's office has a great tool where you can point to a spot on the map. It gives you a forcast but also your location.
Apopka is 28.66 N 81.5 W. So, if this forecast holds true, I would be about 9 miles to the north of the center. That would put it at about Windermere.
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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This is about the best description of anyone yet.
AS FOR ...JUST WHEN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS APPEARED TO
CONVERGE...OFF IN THEIR OWN WORLD THEY GO ONCE AGAIN. AS OF THIS
WRITING...THE ETA...CANADIAN AND NOW NAVY MODELS WERE FARTHEST
SOUTH. THE ETA HAS ENTERING THE STRAITS BY 12Z/FRI WHILE THE
CANADIAN/NOGAPS STEADILY MOVE IT ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM SE TO NW
ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z UKMET THRU 72H APPEARS ON TRACK WITH
THE CURRENT TPC FCST.
THE BIG CHANGE...AS WAS THE CASE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...IS THE
WHICH FIRST SLOWS TO A CRAWL OVER THE CENTRAL/N BAHAMAS
BEFORE TAKING A DUE N MOTION INTO THE SE U.S. (CAROLINAS). ALSO JUST
LIKE YESTERDAY...THE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE .
THIS TIME...THE KEY PLAYER IS WHETHER A WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN
ATLC RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD ALLOW TO PULL UP AND WAIT FOR THE SYSTEM IN THE
GULF OF AK TO EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE
GREAT PLAINS...WHERE DEEPENING AMPLITUDE INCREASES S/SW FLOW THAT
EVENTUALLY (BY SAT NIGHT OR SO) PICKS UP THE CYCLONE. THE /GFDL
SHOW THIS WEAKNESS WHILE THE ETA/NOGAPS/UKMET DO NOT.
SO...SHOULD BARELY SLOW DOWN...THE FARTHER S SOLUTIONS (MORE
OMINOUS FOR FLORIDA) LOOK BEST. BUT...IF SLOWS TO A CRAWL
WHILE IN THE BAHAMAS...THE CHANCES FOR A FLORIDA LANDFALL DECREASE
DRAMATICALLY.
HOPEFULLY...WE'LL BE ABLE TO HONE IN ON A SOLUTION THIS TIME
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE "IN SIGHT".
STAY TUNED...
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I am seeing posts at another site, that Melborne locals are thinking a Floyd track now. Can this be true or is this a crowd control gimmick?
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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The wise thing to do is to have on hand all emergency supplies, necessary material to cover your windows/doors, sandbags, non-perishable food stock, water, a generator / cell phones.batteries, etc.
Also have Plan B ready to be implemented once the 3 day (72 hr) window is upon us and that would start Wednesday evening.
Remember that ' speed will change as well as other variables that make up the models' calculated path; hence, don't agree totally with the current path as we are outside the 72 hour range.
Sit tight and be ready to implement Plan B.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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________________________________________________
I am seeing posts at another site, that Melborne locals are thinking a Floyd track now. Can this be true or is this a crowd control gimmick?
________________________________________________
Some of the models show a Floyd track. Others show it hitting Florida. I think this is going to be very much like Floyd in that we won't know if it is a hit or a miss for Florida until very late in the game.
Edited by alan (Tue Aug 31 2004 11:10 AM)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I will do that. The Tampa post sounds like the most reasonable solution to all the questions so far. I am as prepared as I can be under the current circumstances. I don't however have a generator. Hopefully that is one purchase that won't have needed to have been made. I do feel better about going to work today and not having to read all the updates. It sounds like the Tampa report is the most reasonable.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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