Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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That is not totally correct. The rocket they are attempting to lift off, a spy rocket, was actually scheduled for lift off days ago and the launch has been scrubbed every day , including yesterday, because of lightening in the area.. So Saturday's rocket is actually last weeks rocket...
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Brad
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Lois:
"First.. why isn't Miami a 9 on probs and WPB say a 12?
Why are they both the same if the storm is supposed to come in up the coast at a higher angle? That sort of makes me wonder."
Because Miami is closer to the storm than WPB. Those probabilities only reflect the chance of the storm coming within 65 nm within 72 hours. Thus, Miami's odds on the site will rise somewhat earlier than WPB's, because Miami will be in that 72-hour window several hours before WPB. Similarly, when the was predicting that would landfall near Tampa, the odds for cities farther South (e.g., Naples) went up before the odds for Tampa went up because most of the 3-day forecasts still had it south of Tampa.
So IF the forecast track remains the same, then the WBP odds should be slightly higher than Miami's odds in a day or two. However, because the two cities are not that far apart and because some of the same models that project a hit farther south would bring it within 65 nm of both cities, the odds for the two cities likely will not be that much different.
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Brad
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And I meant, "that much different FROM EACH OTHER," not, "that much different FROM WHAT THEY ARE NOW." Of course the odds will change - likely increase - as the storm gets closer.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Okay, well if NASA has such a great weather forecasting group, why the heck don't they launch these rockets BEFORE lightning strikes? Like in the morning? Geez louise.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Redbird
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Toho is right on this one. My other half works for a telemetry site which tracks launches and this one was originally set to go friday but mechanical as well as weather has scrubbed it out.
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Redbird
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Colleen I was wondering the same thing about the launches........do it before the t-storms come up.
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RockledgeRick
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Why not launch in the morning when there is less lighning? Well because certain payloads are intended for specific geo-synchronus orbits. The launch has to be specifically timed to reach a certain point over the earth while expending the least amount of fuel. It's called a "launch window" . Jeez Louise!
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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I think the launch times are dictated by where they want the satelite to be positioned and the intended orbit. But I agreee,the wx is usually fine in the moring. Go figure.
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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will someone please say if central Florida is less likely to get the blunt of ... in your thoghts is Jaxvl and north more likely to take the hit?
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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caneman
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OK, Gut call here. The ULL is really acclerating to the West now. This was one of the features to turn the system more West. High pressure seems to be in control over Florida. The system is picking up speed. Really just a matter of does it beat the trough in or will the trough even have an affect. I'm going with Florida storm!
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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won't see a hurricane much worse than this...is 200 mph winds possible?...
sho enough...
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Cocoa Beach
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Why would you want someone to commit to such a statement?
This far out it would be like reaching over your shoulder to scratch your butt.
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caneman
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Quote:
OK, Gut call here. The ULL is really acclerating to the West now. This was one of the features to turn the system more North. High pressure seems to be in control over Florida. The system is picking up speed. Really just a matter of does it beat the trough in or will the trough even have an affect. I'm going with Florida storm!
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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Thunderstorms aren't exactly easy to predict. You can predict a likelihood a day or two in advance, but the exact location is almost impossible until the day of the storm.
In any case...back on topic.
Frances is looking better on satellite imagery, if not exactly symmetrical with it's convection. With the eyewall cycle from yesterday back in the past and warm water/low shear ahead, strengthening is likely for a day or two at least. I would not be surprised to see the convection go more symmetric (it's there now, but ragged along the edges) and see the storm reach to near cat 5 status...probably not yet, but during the next diurnal max.
Track -- still the million dollar question. Due to liability issues, I can't give out the Superensemble material any more, so I apologize. I will say that it pretty much follows the official track from last night, however, but is higher on intensity. I'd still trend a little to the left of that, but there is considerable uncertainty with the eventual track and I'm not buying the recurvature bit...not yet at least. The further south it makes landfall, the more people it will impact and the stronger it will be. Kinda obvious, yes, but worth repeating.
No idea about what's going on outside the realm today, so I'll leave it at that.
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Maitland, FL
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If the ULL accelerates westward, does that mean Central Florida is still in the line of fire? What are your thoughts about this? 
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Redbird
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Yeah but the meter ticks for those that are involved in the launch..............the scrubs and wait times do run into lots of money.
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mikeG
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URNT11 KWBC 311848
97779 18484 30216 67600 24400 05037 14093 /8013
RMK NOAA3 1106A OB 13 KWBC
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caneman
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I gave my reasoning. It's not as if I just threw a dart at the board. My reasoning stands for itslef, albeit it could be wrong. I'm not a professional so this isn't to be taken as such. And if I'm wrong I'll gladly eat crow. BTW, at the present motion of the system it realls isn't that far out.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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Did you mean maybe the ULL would have caused it to turn NORTH?
ShawnS
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Much uncertainty with regards to . Models not helping much at least in the long term. which continues too flip back and forth. 00Z had it headed towards NC-12z now has it brushing FL coastline and lanfalling in GA. Latest spaghetti model plot has few making sharp turn toward NW-N, several bring this towrds central/N FL,and then theres a few which head it more west-WNW. I'am still up in the air on future of ridging to north as many are, for now I''ll go with ''possible'' landfall between Stuart and Jacksonville FL(or what previous 5AM track was) although still a ton of question marks???
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