c ray
Registered User
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Posts: 4
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Long time lurker (since Floyd), and posted only one time. I always use this site to keep informed as storms approach, and it's no different w/ . I live in Brevard Co., and the company I work for is in the furniture business with deliveries scheduled each day through the weekend. My question to those who are more in the know would be this- if the track remains close to the East Coast when would evacuations begin to go up? As a company we are trying to decide a course of action and would appreciate any input to help decide when to suspend operations if needed.
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Hey Caneman,
I was refering to:
will someone please say if central Florida is less likely to get the blunt of ... in your thoghts is Jaxvl and north more likely to take the hit?
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JustMe
Just me's statement, I don't think anyone can tell him if he is clear or not.
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Brett
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Great debate here kids. Thanks for the information Jason. Answer me this: We all agree the strength and/or weakness of the ridge to the north will determine the fate of . What I have not seen are updates on this issue. Local mets here last night were discussing the possibility that if the trough in the northern US deepens, a high pressure ridge somewhere would have to correspondigly strengthen, and all bets were on the atlantic high. Are there any idications as to whether the ridge is strenghtening, moving, or weakening? Is it possible could follow the AVN and do a slow swing north and slice the coast of florida all the way up through the carolinas? I would rather not have to board up my windows, and have a wedding to attend on Saturday. Where can I look to see the strength of the ridge to plan accordingly?
Puzzled,
Brett
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South Florida
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CAPE CORAL
Unregistered
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Well everything I have seen over the past hour shows making a mnor jog northwestward and now continues west at this time. continues to look stronger on satellite as outflow increasing to the north allowing to strengthen again. I would epect pressures to fall this afternoon and winds increase to a strong Cat. 4(150 mph). I was thinking earlier that was making its turn w-nw but simce its jog a definit west track has continued. I do agree will turn w-nw as it approaches the Bahama's but again exactly where it makes the turn is very important. I still do not feel will miss Florida but where in Florida is still unknown. My guess is still between WPB and Vero Beach. Like everyone else wait and see. 
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CAPE CORAL
Unregistered
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(Duplicate post removed by moderator)
Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 31 2004 07:14 PM)
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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appreciate your thoughts and help
have company wanting to come to florida for the holiday
i want to tell them not to come
thanks again
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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john03
Unregistered
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the "front" over the southeast is pulling north due to high over florida and ULL over se florida is pushing in GOM.. this appears to be worse case possible.... more south track into florida.....unless atlantic high moves east fast, florida is under the gun
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Maitland, FL
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The models are all up in the air and I really don't think we will know where it makes landfall at until a couple of hours before. Like with , all the models were in general agreement with Tampa Bay, but one had it going into Ft. Myers. And by chance, it did go towards Ft. Myers. I'm not buying this recurvature thing, and I don't think we'll know whats going to happen till it actually does. Everyone from Miami to Jacksonville should be on the lookout. 
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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your right john. some 18Z models in and show again east central florida.
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caneman
Unregistered
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The ULL in the Bahamas was barely moving earlier and now it looks like it is really retrograding. Wouldn't this be because of a fairly stong ridge shoving it? And the spped of has picked up again wouldn't this be becuase of a fairly strong ridge? I don't know all the answers but that is what it seems like to me.
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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I was looking at the water vapor loop and it looked as if the trough is not moving further south. Is the trough currently starting at New Orleans and moving NE across Alabama the deciding factor or is it one behind that.
The reason I ask is with , the trough extended way into the GOM. This one doesn't seem to be moving further south than New Orleans.
Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but an ULL will put a hurricane approaching from the west, as in this case, would be pulled to the north. After all, upper level winds would be going counterclockwise and upper level winds are the steering for the hurricanes. That would mean would get tugged from 5 p.m toward midnight.
Please let me know if I'm wrong.
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Orlando
Unregistered
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Where are you getting these models from? Whats the website? I'd appreciate it!
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caneman
Unregistered
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And if I'm right. I also think landfall in Florida would be wuicker then what is progged. Say Friday afternoon if landfall is Miami but Friday evening if Vero or the Cape. Thoughts and input welcome
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Clark, thanks for your post and insight,
You told us a lot with your post.
No false hope here of an early turn.
Everyone in Florida please take this storm seriously.
Make preparations now, today while you have time.
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caneman
Unregistered
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yes, I meant to say North but now with the ULL backing out it may not have any affect on pulling North.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Much uncertainty with regards to . Models not helping much at least in the long term. which continues too flip back and forth. 00Z had it headed towards NC-12z now has it brushing FL coastline and lanfalling in GA. Latest spaghetti model plot has few making sharp turn toward NW-N, several bring this towrds central/N FL,and then theres a few which head it more west-WNW. I'am still up in the air on future of ridging to north as many are, for now I''ll go with ''possible'' landfall between Stuart and Jacksonville FL(or what previous 5AM track was) although still a ton of question marks???
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mikeG
Unregistered
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URNT14 KNHC 311813
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01191 10635 13132 11107 23050
02193 20637 23126 21103 21046
03194 30639 33109 31006 22051
04196 40641 43083 41107 22055
05198 50643 53043 51208 22058
06200 60644 63985 61111 23075
07202 70646 73838 71311 21100
MF202 M0647 MF105
OBS 01 AT 1701Z
OBS 07 AT 1725Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
01205 10651 13620 11813 05082
02207 20652 23885 21210 06116
03208 30654 33995 31110 06099
04210 40656 43058 41109 05073
05212 50658 53088 51009 05069
06214 60660 63112 61206 05072
07215 70662 73130 71204 05062
MF205 M0651 MF137
OBS 01 AT 1733Z
OBS 07 AT 1759Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 04050
RMK AF985 1006A OB 09
winds 137....20.5 65.1
URNT11 KNHC 311833
97779 18334 30192 66718 30600 33033 11038 /3131 43110
RMK AF985 1006A OB 10
As HF will surely remind you, please don't rip & paste these reports unless you can add some commentary or explanation. Thanks!
Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 31 2004 07:24 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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From the 2:05 tropical discussion:
"Another upper cyclone...400NM in diameter...is along the W periphery of the altc ridge near 24N78W. The cyclone is retrograding W at about 10KT...possibly contributing slightly to steering N of due W at this time."
Recall I suggested yesterday and again this morning this low would influence the course of the strom and because it was not retrograding as fast as the storm was approaching. Iit could explain why the models had picked up on the NW move...
Now the latest WV suggests that this ULL is accelerating to the SW a little faster and the strom has actually pushed this west much more today than it did yesterday. the eastern most influence of it westerday was over Hipanola, but today it is west of the Bahamas, and the axis of the ULL is digging to the SW. Perhaps the models tomorrow will reflect the lessining of the influence of this VERY LARGE upper feature, and reshape the projected path again.
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doug
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Here's the WV Loop of the basin. You can clearly see the ULL over the Bahama's as well as the approaching trof. Clearly this could be a race...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Quote:
Where are you getting these models from? Whats the website? I'd appreciate it!
you can get models here
http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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