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Tropical Storm Fay forms off the North Carolina coast.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 309 (Dorian) , Major: 639 (Michael) Florida - Any: 639 (Michael) Major: 639 (Michael)
42.4N 73.9W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1001mb
Moving:
N at 17 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: eye wall [Re: Lisa NC]
      #21959 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:58 AM

Quote:

Frances might be starting her northward turn. On the sat loops she appears to be moving just north of west in the last half of the loop. This may just be stair stepping, but it might be a new trend


Looks like stair stepping to me .



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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 183
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: GFS Data Question [Re: Unregistered User]
      #21960 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:59 AM

Quote:

Went to the store here in Tampa and everything is going as normal. I talked to the manager at HD and he said there is no high demand for items like there was with charely and business as usual. Went to grocery store and was normal.
People in general in florida are just watching to see if this really has a chance of coming. We all know the Floyd type storms that come close and brush the Bahamas then head up and threaten and even just hitting the outerbanks and out to sea scaring NE. Andrew was diff, there was no doubt it was coming but where was the issue and how strong. Overall most wont hit the stores till Thurs on east coast and late in the day w coast or Friday if track bends back to the left. Right now we just dont know for sure what path it will take. There is no strong trough to affect her till later this weekend and the reason it will start going wnw is the ridge strength and position. Im sticking with around 21N and 70W tomorrow afternoon and near WPB Friday evening. Models will change and the NHC path will adjust with each 6hr run. There is no worries yet on Frances unless you live in the Bahamas and florida if any until later weds. We all say 12Z run on Thurs will nail down landfall within 100miles instead of the current 700.




I must disagree with you, Scott. People in Central and Eastern Florida are taking this storm VERY seriously. I was out last night (Orlando), and there were long lines everywhere. After Charley, everyone here is preparing early. Those that work on the east coast say there is even more preparation going on over there. I think mainly due to the fresh memories of Charly, Florida is taking a more proactive approach than I've seen in my 30+ years here.

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Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: eye wall [Re: Lisa NC]
      #21961 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:01 PM

Lisa there will be wobbles to the wnw but a new path will show on a 3 hour trend. By 2-3pm (eastern) we will see if it still is. Generally its been going just N or due west near 275-280dg since Sunday.
48hour GFS has it running up the bahamas NW near 23.5-73.5. This could happen but I think its still just alittle NE by 50-100 miles.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1431
Loc: Florida
Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances [Re: Rabbit]
      #21962 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:02 PM

Well, for all of our sakes, I truly hope your forecast comes to fruition. I really do.

But you have to be consistent with what you're saying: before you said that with each track it has been moving consistently north, and as Jason pointed out, that is simply not the case. I remember Isabel and Bonnie and Floyd, but the NHC had started saying LONG BEFORE that Floyd WOULD make that turn, we just didn't believe them until it actually did. I don't see a single mention of a definite turn to the the WNW in any of their discussions lately. If anything, they're more than likely pulling their hair out with these models runs differing every six hours.

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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: eye wall [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21963 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:03 PM

Thats nice storm if they are doing it there. Talked to buddie and brother in s florida, they are watching but stores they say are also normal.

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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Stair Stepping [Re: StormHound]
      #21964 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:03 PM

I'm not so sure that it is stair stepping. You could be right, but it could be just the changing of the eyewall structure. I know she has been doing that quite a bit.


ShawnS


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Rabbit Season & Wishcasting [Re: StormHound]
      #21965 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:05 PM

Rabbit seems to be taking it on the chin...we'll see how everything plays out.

It seems like some folks (names withheld to protect the guilty) who live in the Gulf region seem to want this storm to come their way, despite what is becoming more and more evident. The northward turn. That's fine, but this is NOT a gulf storm. Don't wishcast it there. You may have a bunch of mischief of the homebrew type soon enough.

The "dreaded" cone. LOL.

NHC is doing a fantastic job with this storm, as they really have all year (with the exception of underforecasting Charley, but CFHC got it right!). Stay prepared everyone...gonna be a dicey next five days that's for sure.

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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: JB [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21966 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:06 PM

Quote:

GFS 24 hrs out now or say 20 hours it has Frances near 22N and 70W . Hmm 2 deg north in 20 hours? This wnw track better start in next 6 hours or less.This comes out to about .5 per 6 hours now on the first 24 hour run.




take a look at wxrisk.com. DT thinks the GFS is full of you know what.


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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: eye wall [Re: Lisa NC]
      #21967 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:07 PM

its moving west.

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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: GFS Data Question [Re: StormHound]
      #21969 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:08 PM

I'm new to this board - but I know that shopping in the greater Osceola county area is daunting to say the least - - Wally world is already out of gallon water, canned Propane and dry food stuffs. Once burned and twice shy - people are taking this very seriously.

I do have one simple question - people are talking about a weakening of the tropical H pressure ridge off the carolina coast - where is this data coming from - - I look and look but I do not see??


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
On PR radar loops... not due west more like 280 degrees [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21970 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:08 PM

Looking at the PR radar loop, Frances is not going due west but in a general north of due west motion... my best guess is 280 degrees, give or take a couple... this minor northerly component is very evident on the radar loop and IR loop and is basically on track with the projections for now at this present location... it SHOULD be taking a more WNW track later this evening or early tomorrow morning and something that should be monitored closely to see if this comes to fruition and IF the models have any real clue as to what is going to happen down the road... I do feel the track will shift more south within the next day or two, not sure how much though.... going to be a tough call regardless....

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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: eye wall [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21971 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:11 PM

Quote:

Lisa there will be wobbles to the wnw but a new path will show on a 3 hour trend. By 2-3pm (eastern) we will see if it still is. Generally its been going just N or due west near 275-280dg since Sunday.
48hour GFS has it running up the bahamas NW near 23.5-73.5. This could happen but I think its still just alittle NE by 50-100 miles.




absolutely..there is no feature to turn it that quickly per the GFS and we are at a point where 50-100 miles makes all the difference in the world on effects for the EC of Florida and beyond. take a look at the euro people...it has shown great consistency and is on track..dont know bout its gulf solution but i sure think its south bias is worht looking at. rememebr also GFDL uses some GFS data sowhen when GFS flips GFDL usually will too..nhc is really pinning their hopes on these two models. NHC is a very difficult position here as sofla is right on the edge of getting significant weahter based on THEIR track.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 975
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: JB [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21973 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:13 PM

Scott: that is really nothing new...the GFDL 6Z has it at 21.9/70.5 and the wnw moves start almost immediately...from a ratio of 1/7 to 1/3...
Of course IF that does not occur, everything shifs left again...hence the NHC is catious here.

HOWEVER the GFDL was very accurate about 60-72 hrs out on Charley hence they NHC's trend to look closely at the GFS/GFDL for guidance.

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doug


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: On PR radar loops... not due west more like 280 degrees [Re: Frank P]
      #21974 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:14 PM

Nice post Frank and your right.
GFS 72hr out has her near 25N and 75W. I also want to note that the 200mb trough is further back over the western gulf and southern mexico which would argue for more of a ridge to its ENE. Hmm


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1431
Loc: Florida
Re: Rabbit Season & Wishcasting [Re: LI Phil]
      #21975 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:20 PM

I think everyone in Florida is a little on edge therefore we (I) tend to point out what have been the facts. There hasn't been a turn yet (although hopefully it is beginning) therefore, I will hold steadfastedly to what I can see and what I read as facts. I no longer am in the business of "wishcasting" since Charley. I'm like Fox, they report, you decide. Rabbits are well known prey of foxes.

As for the Mobile hit comments, I'd leave them up. Since the person has been saying that, Mobile's been spared a major hit. I think we should give a round of applause.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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mikeG
Unregistered




recon [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21976 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:21 PM

URNT11 KNHC 311604
97779 16004 30224 71500 73200 15013 68//1 /5764
AF306 0906A Frances OB 06


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: On PR radar loops... not due west more like 280 degrees [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21977 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:21 PM

your right doug but first off let me say to all that these models will shift around still with each run. With this GFS run Im stating the positions and looking at the overall picture. The GFDL also made earl a cat 2-3 at 1 time too but we all know that was a error. With Charley it did ok but most models were in somewhat agreement and at the end only 1 or 2 were right with the landfall. I in general go with the GFS and lean towards the NOGAPS.

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: On PR radar loops... not due west more like 280 degrees [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21979 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:22 PM

It must be the Herbert Box Paradox; what the models are now plotting does not conform to the Herbert Box theory that any storm that passes below 20degreees N/ 60 degrees W would invariably affect southern Florida.

It's "Hebert" not Herbert. Pronounced ay-berh

:?:

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________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 31 2004 12:26 PM)


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kelcot
Unregistered




Re: GFS Data Question [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21981 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:24 PM

I'm glad everything is normal in Tampa. I can't say the same for Vero Beach, Sebastian, and Ft. Pierce. I spoke to my family down in Vero today. Pretty much all of the bottled water is gone already. People are stocking up and gearing up there.

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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: mikeG]
      #21982 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:26 PM

000
URNT11 KWBC 311558
97779 15584 30162 62800 55100 16010 55632 /4584
RMK NOAA3 1106A Frances OB 03 KWBC


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