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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Northward turn? [Re: alan]
      #22665 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:52 PM

Really expected a shift SW of the track. They are the experts. They could have been thinking about the shift and then seen the NW jog and decided to leave it the same for now. The discussion will tell more.

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: 5PM Update [Re: Ed in Va]
      #22666 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:53 PM

Quote:

So there are no FL watches/warnings that we thought we'd see at 5? Is the NHC now hedging on a FL landfall?




Probably not close enough yet.
Quoted from:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/box/hurdef.html

"Hurricane watch: An announcement for specific areas that a hurricane or hurricane conditions pose a possible threat to coastal areas generally within 36 hours. In New England, due to the rapid acceleration of most of our hurricanes, it is a necessity that you take action during the watch."

It is still at least 48 hours out...
Mark

Edited by Bloodstar (Wed Sep 01 2004 05:00 PM)


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AphCane04
Unregistered




Re: 5PM Update [Re: Ed in Va]
      #22667 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:55 PM

Quote:

So there are no FL watches/warnings that we thought we'd see at 5? Is the NHC now hedging on a FL landfall?




I'm now feeling fairly confident on no Miami/Ft. Lauderdale landfall. If it comes ashore in Jupiter, we'll just feel a sailing breeze down here in C. Gables.


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rjp
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 12
Loc: Charleston, SC
Re: Northward turn? [Re: jth]
      #22668 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:57 PM

It seems as if they may actually shift it north some.
Quote:

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 13
knots around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. How far west
the hurricane will go will depend on the future strength of the
ridge and that varies from model to model. The GFS and the GFDL
consistently weaken the ridge and turn the hurricane northwestward
earlier than any other models. Because the GFS and GFDL models are
very reliable...I was tempted to shift the track a little bit to
the north and east at this time. However...the Florida State
University super-ensemble and the conu consensus...which consists
of the average of the GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS and UKMET
models...bring the hurricane on a west-northwest track across
Florida. Therefore...I am not ready to make the northward shift at
this time and the official forecast remains as in the previous
advisory...very close to the consensus and basically on top of the
FSU super-ensemble.


Forecaster Avila




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cwmajors
Unregistered




Re: 5PM Update [Re: Bloodstar]
      #22669 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:57 PM

From the 5:00 discussion at wunderground:

Data from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer...sfmr...on
board the NOAA p3 aircraft were used to decrease the wind radii
estimates in the northwest quadrant. Because the NW wind radii are
smaller than previously analyzed...the issuance of a Hurricane
Watch for the Florida East Coast can be delayed a little.


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alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
Re: 5PM Update [Re: AphCane04]
      #22670 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:58 PM

The discussion said the wind radii in the nw quadrant shrank a little, thus postponing watches until tonight.

He also said they almost move the line right because of the GFDL and GFS, but decided to stay with the FSU and other models.


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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: 5PM Update [Re: cwmajors]
      #22671 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:59 PM

URNT12 KNHC 012035
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/2035Z
B. 22 DEG 00 MIN N
70 DEG 49 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2557 M
D. 80 KT
E. 314 DEG 032 NM
F. 043 DEG 126 KT
G. 314 DEG 017 NM
H. 940 MB
I. 9 C/ 3116 M
J. 17 C/ 3115 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF966 1306A Frances OB 20
MAX FL WIND 131 KT NE QUAD 1905Z. MAX FL TEMP 20C 314/007NM
FROM FL CNTR. EYE WALL WAS RAGGED IN SW QUAD.


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fred08
Unregistered




Re: 5PM Update [Re: mikeG]
      #22672 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:03 PM

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOW FAR WEST
THE HURRICANE WILL GO WILL DEPEND ON THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE AND THAT VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE GFS AND THE GFDL
CONSISTENTLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD
EARLIER THAN ANY OTHER MODELS. BECAUSE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE
VERY RELIABLE...I WAS TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE CONU CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTS
OF THE AVERAGE OF THE GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS AND UKMET
MODELS...BRING THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...I AM NOT READY TO MAKE THE NORTHWARD SHIFT AT
THIS TIME AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE
FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE.

FORECASTER AVILA

could there be a north track?


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: 5PM Update [Re: fred08]
      #22673 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:06 PM

GFS and GFDL have been reliable all year, but have been out to lunch so far with this system. Frances has been consistently left of those two tracks. Only time will tell, but the last frame on the sat indicates that the WNW motion has continued. I wouldn't place too much emphasis on those two models, but would do as they have done in this case and use the consensus approach until they all come in to line. Maybe the next run of the models will give us a better idea. Weren't there numerous Upper air recons in there this afternoon?

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mrorlmagik
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: MikeC]
      #22674 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:10 PM

Would you please indicate the Orlando area on your map as to projected time and wind speed. Most people in Central Florida live in Orange/Seminole County but your latest projections run to Ocala which has few people.

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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Re: 5PM Update [Re: fred08]
      #22675 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:10 PM

The discussion says that the SW portion of the eyewall was ragged. I think that part of the eye is kind of eroding away and that may be why it appears to have more of a north component now. At the same time it might just be making a little north jog; it's so hard for me to tell the difference.


ShawnS


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: 5PM Update [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #22677 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:16 PM

Sooner,

On this satellite loop from NRL, you can see the northward movement. Just look at the 22N line and watch Frances cross it. Will definitely need to see more consistent movement to know for sure it's not a wobble, but it is DEFINITELY gaining latittude

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: mrorlmagik]
      #22678 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:18 PM

Quote:

Would you please indicate the Orlando area on your map as to projected time and wind speed. Most people in Central Florida live in Orange/Seminole County but your latest projections run to Ocala which has few people.




While not quite as many people in the Lake Marion county area's, I can assure you, the population in that portion of the state is quite substantial. Not "few people" as you say.

It looks like NHC wants to move the track more Northerly but is hesitant to do so at this time.
Time will tell.


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RockledgeRick
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
Loc: Space Coast, FL 28.32N 80.73W
Re: 5PM Update [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #22679 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:19 PM

Oh great.. I was hoping for a SW shift of the forecast track.. what happens? Now I'm the bullseye. I'll be joining the throng of evac pilgrims to Tampa. Sheesh, first Floyd, now Frances.. I'm really tired of these "F" ers!

--------------------
Been through Agnes, Erin, Irene, Dennis, Floyd, Charley, Frances, Jeanne, TS Fay, Matthew


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: 5PM Update [Re: RockledgeRick]
      #22685 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:31 PM

At least all the people heading to Tampa are smarter than my family. They're going to evac Vero to go to Orlando. Did I mentoin that my family is a bunch of Polocks?

--------------------
Kelly


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ... 27.03N 82.06W
Re: 5PM Update [Re: kelcot]
      #22690 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:44 PM

I'm still not grasping what is occuring to cause the GFDL to show such a strong northward trend. A storm of this size is slow to turn any direction, it's like turning a semi-truck.

In addition, I'm watching the "Mean Wind Analysis" and just don't see the steering capable of moving it much further north.

See graphics here:
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

Best of luck to all near the path. Hoping it stays away, my nerves are just recovering from Charley.

-Bev

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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