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Archives 2000s >> 2002 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Tropical Cyclone Forecast - 2002
      #23 - Thu May 02 2002 10:51 PM

Once again, its time to take a look at the upcoming Atlantic tropical season, and once again, an active season seems likely. Last year, an unexpected 15 named storms were recorded, and while I don't believe that this season will be quite as busy, it will be busy enough. The much heralded El Nino had shown signs of early development in the equatorial Pacific, however in the past three weeks it has totally collapsed into neutral sea surface temperature conditions. Even if the El Nino should redevelop, it would be weak at best and would not have an influence on the upcoming season. Sea surface temperatures in the central and southern Caribbean Sea are already uncommonly warm for this time of year with readings in the low 80s. An Accuweather analysis notes that when an early Spring El Nino stutter-steps and stops, the southeastern U.S. often experiences a dry and hot period. The analysis also notes that this is usually followed by a moderately active hurricane season. The best analog years for this type of ENSO event are 1959, 1988 and 1970. Upper air patterns in the tropical Atlantic support a tropical season similar to 1959. The upper trough off the east coast, which had protected the U.S. coastline for the past two years, has eroded and lifted to the northeast. The tropical jetstream which had extended from Central America to the Bahamas has become more zonal in its flow and has moved east and south to lower latitudes in the central tropical Atlantic. This all points to a rather quiet Cape Verde season and a much more active Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Season. It also increases the risk for a hurricane landfall along the Gulf and southeast U.S. coastlines. An early season (June) storm is possible and I believe that the season will extend into late October. I anticipate two U.S. hurricane landfalls this season (and one of those landfalls will probably be a major hurricane - 3 of the 5 best analog years had a major hurricane landfall along the U.S. coast). Here are my numbers for the 2002 season:

12 named storms
7 hurricanes
2 major hurricanes

Hurricane preparations which are made just before a storm strikes are hurricane preparations which are made too late. This is the time, before the Atlantic gets busy, to start thinking about what you would need and what precautions you would take should a storm threaten your area.
Cheers,
ED


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Tropical Cyclone Forecast - 2002
      #24 - Fri May 03 2002 05:43 PM

Hey Ed,

I'm sticking with my 13/8/3 post from April on the old forum for now. I think the key is what actually happens with El Nino. If he peters out, the numbers might go up a hair, if he shows up, then an 11/6/2 scenario looks more likely. But I'm still going to wait until June 1st in order to make my official season/landfall prediction.

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Kevin
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Cyclone Forecast - 2002
      #27 - Fri May 10 2002 02:09 PM

Well Ed, your over all named storm and hurricane count look OK, but there could be 3-5 majors instead of two like you forecast. I don't exactly think that the Cape Verde season will be quiet...but moderatly above average. A good majority of these will go fishing then off to hurricane hell...but I can't rule the possibility that one will make it close to the U.S. We must watch the Carribbean this year...below average SLPA's, significantly above avarage SST's and little wind sheer during the peak of the Carribbean season... a recipe for trouble. Northeast Carribbean will need to be watched as well for Florence type storms. And I'm talking about the Florence of 1953. A bit different from the past few years (2000/2001), but definitely not in a good way.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Major Hurricanes
      #62 - Sun May 12 2002 11:11 AM

Kevin, I agree that the Caribbean looks like it could become more active this year. Taking a look at the last 100 years, 67 seasons had 2 Majors or less, thus 33 had 3 or more. Only 19 (about one in five) had 4 or more, 13 had 5 or more, 7 had 6 or more, 1961 had 7 and 1950 had 8 Majors. Looking at tropical Pacific SST anomalies, if the first quarter of this year was a weak El Nino and you expect the second quarter to become neutral, then the best ENSO analog years are 1959, 1970, 1978, 1980 and 1988 - 1959 had 3 Majors while the rest had one or none. If you believe that the first quarter of the year had neutral SST anomalies and that the second quarter will become a weak El Nino, then the best ENSO analog years are 1957, 1972, 1982 and 1991 - 1957 and 1991 had two Majors. Probably 1959 and 1957 are the best overall analog years and the average number of named storms for all of those analog years was only 9, which makes a forecast of 12 a bit gutsy. TSR is calling for 9 and Accuwx 10. Most of the analog years mentioned above had a very quiet Cape Verde season, and with a quiet Cape Verde season, I just don't anticipate as many Majors. However, if the Cape Verde area gets active this year, then you can pitch this rationale
Cheers,
ED


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Rad
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
Re: Tropical Cyclone Forecast - 2002
      #119 - Thu May 16 2002 11:43 PM

Get ready now ! The "MeanSeason" is coming



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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE


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