Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Nothing currently in the Atlantic Basin, for Late October the West Caribbean is usually where to monitor.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 12 (Nate) , Major: 29 (Maria) Florida - Any: 39 (Irma) Major: 39 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | (show all)
DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... [Re: Unregistered User]
      #23881 - Fri Sep 03 2004 04:41 PM

Anybody know when the SW shear over Francis will let up? Its very obvious right now in the visible satellite. I think when or if it lets up then she'll begin intensifying again, but until then she'll at least be able to maintain herself. Any answers Clark, JK?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
gailmm
Unregistered




Re: Vortex Decoding Tool [Re: Londovir]
      #23882 - Fri Sep 03 2004 04:42 PM

This is great for us lay people. You are a magician. Thanks.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Vortex Decoding Tool [Re: gailmm]
      #23883 - Fri Sep 03 2004 04:43 PM

5:00 Advisory


DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT Frances
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
REMAINS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100
KNOTS BUT...BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...INSTRUMENT ON BOARD A NOAA
AIRCRAFT...THE WIND FIELD APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING A LITTLE BIT.
THIS NECESSITATES EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO
STRENGTHEN...IF AT ALL...WHILE MOVING OVER WATER. ALTHOUGH NONE OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT STREGTHENING...THERE IS A SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR Frances TO RE-INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT PASSES OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND APPROACHES THE FLORIDA COAST.

AS ANTICIPATED...THE HURRICANE IS MOVING RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE
USUAL WOBBLES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES OR WEST-NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS AND A TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BECAUSE NEITHER THE STEERING NOR THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAVE CHANGED..THERE IS NO POINT TO DISCUSS IT AGAIN.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT Frances...A POWERFUL HURRICANE...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL CAN NOT BE SPECIFIED EXACTLY.

BECAUSE Frances IS A SLOW MOVING HURRICANE...IT COULD BRING
TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 25.9N 77.5W 100 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 26.5N 78.4W 100 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 27.4N 80.0W 105 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 70 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 05/1800Z 28.5N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 31.1N 85.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1800Z 35.1N 87.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 08/1800Z 40.0N 85.0W 20 KT...INLAND

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ... 27.03N 82.06W
Re: Vortex Decoding Tool [Re: Londovir]
      #23884 - Fri Sep 03 2004 04:43 PM

Wow! Awesome tool, thanks for making it available!

Best Regards,
Bev


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: not what we needed [Re: DroopGB31]
      #23885 - Fri Sep 03 2004 04:47 PM

FINALLY...Alan Winfield (what a name for met in Florida, huh?) just pointed out where the center of the storm is: right smack between the big island chain (Abaco Islands?) and the island south to it, and she's over water. Moving to the WNW. *IF* this continues, there will be another track shift to the left.

Well, my eyes are blurry, so I'm gonna go rest them for a while.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: Panhandle Weather this weekend.. [Re: HCW]
      #23889 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:02 PM

Increasingly less likely...not out of the question, but even if it does it would probably be in a very weak state.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: Panhandle Weather this weekend.. [Re: digitalssinc]
      #23890 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:05 PM

It's real, but it may not matter too much...the forecast track would keep it over land a long time, and a very short time back over the Gulf...unless it comes back into the Gulf much further south than forecast she's not gonna have time to do much of anything...and if she does, she'll have to stall and not make landfall until Tue or Wed (Which is highly unlikely).

We are the NBC affiliate for the Destin area, so give us a look on your visit.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... [Re: DroopGB31]
      #23892 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:12 PM

To my eye, there really isn't that much shear...I concur with Clark that what we are seeing is the 'hangover' from Frances ingesting the remnant of that ULL over the Bahamas...

Current Shear Map

Notice the very light shear....

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Matt033
Unregistered




Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... [Re: wxman007]
      #23893 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:14 PM

I think there is a fair chances for this to become 120 mph hurricane again?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Panhandle Weather this weekend.. [Re: wxman007]
      #23894 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:15 PM

They shifted the track back to the left again...I think he said Indian River area? No, I think it's still Vero Beach. And it's back to taking 24 hours to cross the state.

The met on Channel 9 Orlando mentioned something about a potential turn before it hits the coast, but then said the NHC is adamant about this track. Is a turn to the N/NW possible at this point?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
eligrace
Unregistered




Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... [Re: wxman007]
      #23895 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:21 PM

Jason-do you or anyone know where i can get a display of the winfield along the forecasted track-the track that was predicted on the 5:00p.m. advisory?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Mike posted a new Heading.... [Re: eligrace]
      #23896 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:25 PM

FWIW..... there is a new heading posted.... probably good idea to post there

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... [Re: eligrace]
      #23897 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:26 PM

Quote:

Jason-do you or anyone know where i can get a display of the winfield along the forecasted track-the track that was predicted on the 5:00p.m. advisory?



Check www.skeetobite.com in a little while. He's been doing a great job with wind field graphics.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Cathy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Florida Native - Bartow (Polk ... 27.89N 81.84W
Re: Vortex Decoding Tool [Re: Londovir]
      #23902 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:29 PM

WOW - a great tool, thanks for sharing with us!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
eligrace
Unregistered




Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... [Re: StormHound]
      #23904 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:38 PM

Thanks storm hound!!!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Vortex Decoding Tool [Re: Londovir]
      #23938 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:47 PM

Wow, that's awesome. I can never remember which line is which and it used to take forever to look everything up!!!!

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 48 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 48338

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center