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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2968
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five
      #25466 - Sat Sep 11 2004 06:56 PM

Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM and running radio from Jamaica at other times... -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
Let Jim know where you are from.. Use this link to listen


Hurricane Ivan regained category 5 strength this afternoon and its path is taking it toward the Cayman Islands and eventually western Cuba. It's supposed to encounter shear before it nears the US, but it looks like it will remain a major hurricane throughout the period.



After Cuba is what most folks in the US are interested in, and this time the risk for the northeastern gulf is increased and the threat to central Florida decreased. Although the track error that far out still could be large. It would be Tuesday night or Wednesday for landfall on the current schedule and a lot could happen in the gulf.

The forecast that far out is still very uncertain so folks along the gulf will want to watch, especially the eastern half of the Gulf. Watch the trends.




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Event RelatedLinks

Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info

Disaster Relief Information

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: MikeC]
      #25472 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:01 PM

Several new maps:

Street level for:
Grand Cayman
Cuba
Key West
Tallahassee

Full size images available at www.skeetobite.com


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Canadian Club for Steve? [Re: MikeC]
      #25473 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:01 PM

Posted this on the last thread, so a repost here:

Mike...you're not allowed to have a life . You can't leave the site for a second.

One good thing about the site going down was that I was able to check out a whole bunch of other stuff, read up on all the models, etc.

Steve, have you seen the canadian? It's the westerly outlier of course, but it also puts you in the bullseye.

The models have all shifted westward, so now it looks as though JK, co-mod Coop & Andy1Tom might need to think about heading to GA.

Accuweather has a strange cone, the easternmost part of it has little old moi as an end target. Let's stay away from that one, shall we?

CAT V and still strengthening? Good lord, Grand Cayman had better have all their planes in the air NOW with residents aboard. Hope the cruise ships bolted town...

Anyhoo...glad the site is back up. I was worried I'd have to watch two russian women smack a little yellow sphere around all night...

Peace, and pray for Grand Cayman!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: MikeC]
      #25474 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:04 PM

Thanks for the new thread mike.
CAT 5 Ivan is going to bottom out at about 890 mb's, nothing seems like it will hinder it's devlopment, except some dry air coming off Cuba's moutains but Ivan's near perfect outflow will take care of that. Those peole in the Caymans Islands and the Western tip of Cuba are in for a rude awakening, as this hurricane might hit as a CAT 5. Luckily though, the keys and the other areas that have already been hit with two major hurricanes seem like they will be spared if that ridge holds out. Lets hope for the best.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Jason234 (Sat Sep 11 2004 08:59 PM)


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: Keith234]
      #25476 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:08 PM

Posted on the last thread, reposted here.

On several of the tv stations here they were saying that the forecasts were all based on the assumption that Ivan would beat the trough (jet stream?) currently moving down to the northwestern Gulf. More to the point, they said it was a race with respect to what arrived in the GOM first, the trough or Ivan. If the trough gets here first, the forecast shifts back to the right, if not, it stays where it is. Any thoughts on what is "winning"? I'm a little concerned that Ivan doesn't seem to be in any hurry at the moment. I don't like it when I hear things like it's a race, and steering currents are weak once past Cuba. That usually doesn't bode well for last minute preparations (still remembering Charley's quick turn at the last minute). Don't get me wrong, we have all our supplies, etc, but...would rather not have a last minute panic if it heads our way.

Edited by tenavilla (Sat Sep 11 2004 07:10 PM)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: tenavilla]
      #25478 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:12 PM

The trough, I believe has stopped digging and is now lifting so don't get to worried yet, it is kind of a race though but it depends on what you mean by winning. If you don't want the hurricane to hit, right now you're winning but this game might be taken into overtime, you never know.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Second Shift
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: Iowa
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: tenavilla]
      #25479 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:12 PM

With the western paths shift discussion, what does that bode
for New Orleans? Tough to think about that. The cone is not that far from NO per the 5 PM advisory.


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BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: Keith234]
      #25480 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:17 PM

Ivan looks like it has stalled and is drifting just south of west. I wonder what this is going to do to the future track? I know that it was supposed to slow down, but it looks like it is doing what Frances did off the coast of Florida. At least it has cleared Jamaica enough that they are not getting the worst of it now, but they are still getting pounded.

Bill


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: Keith234]
      #25481 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:17 PM

Maybe in my ignorance I phrased it wrong. What they showed was I believe the jet stream shifting south behind a trough of dry air (again terminology may be wrong). You could distinctly see the dry air, and behind it a bunch of stuff moving quickly south, currently over OK and that general area. They said (heard something about it on TWC as well) that when the hurricane got to it, it would "pick it up" and that's what would carry it NE. Question is where it will be when it meets up with Ivan.

With respect to winning, I'm only referring to what gets to the gulf first, not who gets hit. I'm in Tampa, and we for sure don't need it here, there wouldn't be much of a downtown above water.


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belleami
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 31
Loc: St George Island/ Apalachicola
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: Second Shift]
      #25482 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:18 PM Attachment (340 downloads)

Quote:

Results for 29.733906N, 84.8701W:
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 29.7N, 85.0W or about 7.8 miles (12.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the eye will be at that location is in about 89.2 hours. Be patient for the map to be generated below. (If you get a 'broken' image, try reload/refresh).



*the attached file is a .PNG image*
From stromcaribe "how close is it" link.


The only thing I keep thinking is that if the models show landfall around Apalachicola (Clark was on it last night; he mentioned St. george Island) ~ if it is noted this early, there is a better chance it may change / shift by Wednesday......

Or is that just wishful thinking?
Susie

--------------------
hang on!


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: Second Shift]
      #25483 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:21 PM

At this point, all points of landfall need to be considered including Yucatan and across the entire Gulf coast, especially with Ivan's slow movement. The recent westward shift in the GFS model was huge! Surface pressures are falling pretty good at Cozumel right now. Even the Cayman islands might be spared the worst of Ivan if it continues tracking due west.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




What? Western Gulf? [Re: BillD]
      #25484 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:22 PM

http://independentwx.com/atlanticdiscussion.html


I posted this on the last thread but here it is in case someone missed it.

ShawnS


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MParker
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: belleami]
      #25485 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:22 PM

I was thinking the same thing! I have a house on Cape San Blas and do not like the idea of the Cape becoming an island.
Hopefully, the margin of error 4 days out will keep us in the clear.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: BillD]
      #25486 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:24 PM

If it continues to slow down, this is not good for the Tampa or the upper part of the Florida Penisula, it could very well affect the current forecast. The slow motion would allow the Trough to have more affect on Ivan as it would near. If this continues the threat for a lanfalling hurricane will once again shift.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: BillD]
      #25487 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:24 PM

This slow down is going to eventually suspend evacuation operations and people are going to start to get complacent. Is this new quirk in the system's path going to resolve otself before Monday? We have a lot of school closings in Polk County for Moncay morning. I don't have kids but do have co-workers who have small children whose day care centers close every time the schools do. Talk about disruption!

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: BillD]
      #25488 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:25 PM

Looks like the tracks corrected left again because the storm was anticipated to have turned more by now.

I am waiting to see if there is anything left of the Caymans tomorrow and how long before another analogy is brought up....
Pretty impressive on the radar, isn't it.

Guess you can take your plywood down at least.


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mud1967
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: belleami]
      #25489 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:31 PM

I'm right next door to St. George island and right now it looks bad for our area. The map at the top of this page shows that the winds at the GA border will be 65KT and it shows that it will be a CAT 4 in the GOM. Does that mean it will be a 4 at land fall too?

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: BabyCat]
      #25490 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:33 PM

>>> Guess you can take your plywood down at least.

I don't think ANYONE from the Keys to Shawn S in Houston should be doing anything BUT preparing for a major hurricane strike...even Brownsville & Meh-he-ko need to be prepared... This could be one for the record books, folks, DO NOT GET COMPLACENT!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Ivan is Moving [Re: BabyCat]
      #25491 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:34 PM

He is still moving. You can't base a stall just on one frame. He appears to be still moving almost due west after a SLIGHT hick-up I guess you could say. I do admit he is not moving very fast but he is moving.

ShawnS


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: LI Phil]
      #25492 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:35 PM

I was just in PCB last weekend and the water was so warm! I thought 'canes love to strengthen over warm water like that?

--------------------
Kelly


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