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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Still West [Re: rule]
      #25619 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:07 PM

Still going West.

Anyone have a strength measurment?

Paging Yucatan, your plane is leaving....


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




The bottom line is... [Re: BillD]
      #25620 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:09 PM

good idea,just not working out the way it was meant to.

Now that I've had my say, I'm turning my attention back to Ivan.

ShawnS


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: BillD [Re: BillD]
      #25622 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:12 PM

Good point, Bill.

The Internet has really been an added component to coverage. It's only going to get worse.

While I'm at it, I would LOVE to donate some money to this site, but I've spent myself into a hole getting ready for Frances and Ivan. Maybe next month... I really would like to donate something because this site has been (at the least!) a stess outlet for me during all this.


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jamserve
Unregistered




Re: NHC [Re: Rasvar]
      #25623 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:12 PM

How about a 5-day but only showing the cone with 3-day forecast points and not the 5-day points. That way the media can't point to a 5-day location and give people the impression they are in the path (or not).

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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Still West [Re: rule]
      #25624 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:14 PM

Yes, still west. For awhile I thought maybe I was looking at it wrong, trying to evaluate general motion in increments that were too small. But...I just realized that the eye still has not made it north of Jamaica. It's obviously well to the west, but not north.

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jultime
Unregistered




Re: BillD [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #25626 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:16 PM

Yup, sick of Ivan.

The moving truck is supposed to be at my place Monday to load up to move back to Clearwater, FL. That's IF Ivan doesn't decide to go visit Tampa Bay. Perhaps by Monday morning we'll have a better idea on where Ivan is going. My intuition is that its not going to hit the west coast of Florida (fingers crossed)

And I also agree that the 5 day track is a waste of time.

I plan on getting hurricane ready as soon as I move into my house. At least the neighbors won't laugh at me anymore.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Recon [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25629 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:18 PM

Recon is airborne at this time from Biloxi.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
NHC 5 Day [Re: jultime]
      #25630 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:20 PM

Tick...tick...tick...getting close to 9/12

Never thought I'd say this, but I tend to agree with y'all that the 5 day has been a good experiment gone awry...too much uncertainty and not enough ...what...confidence? It's hard enough to do 72 hours, but 120 is really pushing it. I vote with the board on this one...scrap it. Or don't include it in the cone, because that cone is like 750 miles wide...

Anyone else with me?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Still West [Re: tenavilla]
      #25632 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:23 PM

I have a computer program that I use for tracking. I just pulled up my extended forecast from the 5pm discussion yesterday. The forecast just over 30 hrs ago was for the eye to pass just west of Montego Bay, right over Cayman Brac (the island to the far right) and just east of Havana. They had the US landfall just a little to the east of where they have it now. As far as timing, it was supposed to be over Cayman Brac right now. Obviously, none of that has come to pass Just goes to show how inaccurate hurricane forecasts can be.

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: NHC 5 Day [Re: LI Phil]
      #25633 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:23 PM

I think the studies show that the 5 day forecasts are now as accurate as the 3 day forecasts used to be, that's why they now include them. Storms like this will always present a problem, but I don't think their previous 5 days' were that bad. It is just something we have to get used to. In fact, Isabel was nailed I believe. So for now, I'll be the dissenting voice. Of course, if it were up to me, I'd ask for a 10 day forecast.....

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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: 11pm discussion Yuk [Re: Frank P]
      #25639 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:28 PM

I have been watching the water vapor loop most of the day. It looks to me like Ivan is no longer squashed like it was on the N and NW, and the moisture around Ivan is lifting to the NW. I think Ivan is about to start its NW turn. I hope I am wrong for the Caymans' sake.

Bill


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: New Thread [Re: BillD]
      #25642 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:29 PM

New Thread posted-thanks

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Still West [Re: tenavilla]
      #25644 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:29 PM

Quote:

But...I just realized that the eye still has not made it north of Jamaica. It's obviously well to the west, but not north.




The last couple of NHC forecast did not call for it to be north of the northern edge of Jamaica until sometime after 2:00-3:00am EDT. 18.7N 80.5N was the 2:00am forecast from 5:00 PM. I think it will be just a tad off at 18.6N 80.6W around 2:00am.


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KJJBCr
Unregistered




Re: Still West [Re: Rasvar]
      #25668 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:47 PM

Do you realize that Charlie was exactly in the same place exactly one month ago. Look at one of the interactive sites where you can see the path of prior storms. I can not believe how similar Ivan and Charlie are!

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