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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Mandeville, LA
Models [Re: Unregistered User]
      #26116 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:08 PM

Holy NOGAPS, Batman.....

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html

--------------------
Terra M. Dassau, Ph.D.
(Chemistry, however, so don't think I'm an expert!)


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dani
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Pensacola/Indianapolis
Re: Models [Re: Terra]
      #26117 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:13 PM

I've been lurking on the site watching the insanity of Ivan wreck havoc on the people trying to forecast it's actual location. Who thinks that the NOGAP model is on base or is it probably taking other things into account too much? I have a friend directly in the path of the NOGAP and my family in Pensacola, who are leaving to come up here in Indianapolis tomorrow evening, taking whats important to them ahead of this storm.
BTW, why does TWC seem to be focusing only on cedar key and n. huntington beach and acts like 'florida is out of the danger zone', ignoring the large panhandle that is still part of florida?


Thanks for the information.

dani

--------------------
dani

Go Green Bay!


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
atmosphere [Re: Terra]
      #26118 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:17 PM

According to the water vapor loop, it looks like traffic has come to a screaching halt. The ULL over Bermuda hasn't budged, the trough is VERY slowly digging into the upper Gulf coast, but the ridge is still building overtop in North Dakota. The ULL over Memphis is moving very slowly. It's almost like the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. It is no surprse that the trough in the central part of the country is taking on a negative tilt.
For the benefit of the new people, I'll explain a couple of things. First, ULL = upper level low. They are responsible for the breaking down of ridges that have been causing the wnw motion, and act to "draw" up tropical systems. Having said that, this is a monster to try to "draw".
A negative tilt trough is one that actually wraps the flow around it, so you get some NW motion over top the ULL. These tend to be slower moving systems, that can close off, and get stuck, or they can open up and lift out. This is forecast to open up, and within 4 days, the ULL is expected to be centered over Pa., which is quite a while to move that distance. The strongest of troughs go negative tilt, and if one is going to turn Ivan, it had better be a strong one, hence the expectations to turn the storm NW, then North.
I hope I explained that well, and accurately.


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sullynole
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 21
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Models [Re: dani]
      #26119 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:18 PM

TWC is not that great of a source for accurate forecasts and weather information. they try to do their own thing too much instead of just relaying the information.

sp err

Edited by sullynole (Sun Sep 12 2004 08:20 PM)


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Models [Re: dani]
      #26120 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:20 PM

A met told me when I was in high school, to be careful not to put all of your trust in a model. Of course, back then, the 2 models were the LFM and NGM. The LFM was put out to pasture years ago, and the NGM should be. They all have biases, and the NOGAPS in other years has been pretty bad. It also tends to be the furthest west model in general. Having said that, forecasts have shifted leftward, but I find its solution dubious because it is the outlier at this point.

Edited by MrSpock (Sun Sep 12 2004 08:21 PM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: atmosphere [Re: MrSpock]
      #26121 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:22 PM

That was very clear! Now in your opinion, where is that lift going to direct Ivan, do you think it will influence Ivan, and if so when? Those are the questions on the minds of novices, whose most ordinary lives consist of figuring out whether we will have a 40 hour work week or a 55 hour work week starting tomorrow 9/13/04

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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sullynole
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 21
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Models [Re: Terra]
      #26122 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:22 PM

NOGAPS has performaed the worst on Ivan, especially in the long range track. However, that does not mean it will be the worst in the future. In general, models should not be taken at face value though.

--------------------
John

Edited by sullynole (Sun Sep 12 2004 08:24 PM)


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Models [Re: MrSpock]
      #26123 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:25 PM

Actually the Canadian is and has been the western outlier for Ivan throughout the forecast period, and the 12Z Euro today had a landfall at the MS/LA coast... eerily similar to a Camille track, but not with Camille intensity I would hope

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Predictions [Re: dani]
      #26124 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:26 PM

It's time to start making some predictions/guesses since the storm is possibly/maybe/could be 72 hours from a U.S. landfall. My take is that it will squeeze thru the Yucatan channel(why not, it has missed every other opportunity of making landfall). Eventually, once it does start to turn NW, I think it keeps turning N and even NE in a short period of time.
Landfall north of Tampa as a high end cat 3. I think the NHC misses this one, they have done a great job this year and all good things must come to an end. Their accuracy can't keep up forever. Then again, watch out JK, Jim Cantore is in PCB.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Marknole
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 33
Loc: Daytona Beach Shores, FL 29.18N 80.98W
Re: Interesting comment from a New Orleans Met on the FSU SE [Re: Frank P]
      #26125 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:27 PM

With repeated westward movement of the guidance, even this dramatic shift isn't too surprising after NHC mentioned the erosion of the ridge @ 90 W. Even as an FSU grad, I noticed that the SE was password protected. (What did my tuition buy me anyway?).

Possibly bad news for coastal MS and Greater N.O., but it still seems to be a dynamic situation (even a possible brush with the Yucatan?). I'm wondering about the intensity forecasts. Even two days ago, moderate shear in the Gulf was cited as a reason to hope for weakening (even if only to Cat. 3). The latest only mentioned cold water upwelling for this forecast. Is the shear no longer in play, and with SST's around 82-85 F, is this realistic?

Thanks to all. I just found this page, and will continue to monitor...


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Models [Re: Terra]
      #26126 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:28 PM

The NOGAPS was run at 7 this morning...lots of new stuff since then

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Models [Re: Frank P]
      #26127 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:32 PM

Ivan seems to be more of a Pinball, than a storm, just bouncing fluidly along, no deadline, and no particular purpose.
He's bounced off the islands, and now he's shooting for the Yucatan Channel.
FrankP, i was trying not to notice the similarities. Thanks for the heads up.


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Breeezy
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 8
Loc: Crystal River, FL
Re: Predictions [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #26128 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:33 PM

Hey WXMAN
Please explain how you came up with your prediction? Seems like I've read that it is extremely rare for a hurricane to make landfall in that area around the Big Bend??


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Predictions [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #26129 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:33 PM

I predict that when we wake up in the morning, Ivan will be sitting at 19.9999, spinning away at 82.2222, and the mets will be scratching their white heads and plucking the remnants of their young locks off their shirt collars. And, the majority of us will be SLOSHing down the last of our coffee, with blurry looping vision, still trying to figure out if we saw a northern wobble or not.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Interesting comment from a New Orleans Met on the FSU SE [Re: Marknole]
      #26130 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:35 PM

I noticed the same thing in the NHC discussion regarding the lack of shee. in fact, they mentioned that the upper environment should be favorable until landfall. UI don't want to bank on cold water in the GOM to save my #$^. Haven'r seen the comment about the 90 degree longitut mark yet, but that is very scary. Since we haven't heard from cat 5 Rick today, I will post his favorite comment.....Nah I can't even imagine what that would do, so I wont even say it.

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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: Predictions [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #26131 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:35 PM

I think we oughta run the models by that prediction.

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KJJBCr
Unregistered




Re: Models [Re: andy1tom]
      #26132 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:36 PM

Look at the 8pm BAM! why?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Mandeville, LA
Re: Predictions [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #26133 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:37 PM

Motion looks NW over the last few hours.... what do you think?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

--------------------
Terra M. Dassau, Ph.D.
(Chemistry, however, so don't think I'm an expert!)


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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: Predictions [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #26134 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:37 PM

If it makes any difference to you, here's the latest vortex.

500
URNT12 KNHC 122359
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/2359Z
B. 19 DEG 28 MIN N
82 DEG 45 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2352 M
D. 110 KT
E. 283 DEG 10 NM
F. 026 DEG 155 KT
G. 287 DEG 018 NM
H. 916 MB
I. 13 C/ 3103 M
J. 19 C/ 3084 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO17-40
N. 12345/7
O. 0.5/5 NM
P. AF977 2709A Ivan OB 06
MAX FL WIND 155 KT NW QUAD 2339Z.
LIGHTNING VISIBLE IN SW EYEWALL.


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: atmosphere [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #26135 - Sun Sep 12 2004 08:38 PM

I am expecting a turn more towards the NW, and I am expecting it tonight. The problem is, this is very hard to turn, and there simply isn't enough experience forecasting turns on 4's and 5's. Gilbert was expected to hit La. at one point, and ended up in NE Mexico. In all fairness, most of these models didn't exist back then. I still think this should end up between La. and the Panhandle of Fla, and I know no one is out of the woods, but it does not look like the west coast of Fla. will see a landfall. It has had trouble turning, and would have to make a hard right. There is one wildcard in this that no one has mentioned. IF Ivan weakens significantly, it will be easier to turn. It will also be steered by a lower level flow. However, it would have to weaken considerably for that last scenario, and it is not likely.
In fact, it is too early to call it a turn, but it appears to be moving at about 300 deg. the last few hours, and on this path would take it through the Yucatan channel. It also has limited outflow to the NW side, and may be ingesting some dry air. These all may be the first signs of that bend. I would like to hear it from the NHC though, this is strictly an amateur's opinion.


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