dani
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Pensacola/Indianapolis
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So I just looked at the latest models and they have all shifted far west over al/ms/la...what is the thought on whether these models have gone too far west or if they appear to be on the mark?
Thanks,
dani
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dani
Go Green Bay!
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anonymous
Unregistered
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What site did u go to?
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Bioman
Weather Watcher
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this storm has humbled many experts. As a scientist I know about variables. A good experiment should only have one variable. Unfortunately the s hypotheses are continually off because of the number of variables and varables within variables like intensity and speed. Models are only as good as data that is entered into the models. Personally i think the five day forecast should be removed because it is horribly inaccurate and publick misinterpretation (due to misinterpretation by the media). I think they need more buoys in the carribean in a grid like fashion so they can measure pressure changes in the climate surrounding hurricanes. ONce again it seems the ocean is this great mystery that we have hideously small amounts of data compared to land.
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Bioman
Weather Watcher
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see my post above
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storm chaser
Unregistered
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I am worried that people on the west coast are letting their guard down. They already cancelled the evacuation for the keys and told them they could go back. I live in Volusia county and saw what Charlie did at the last minute and also lived in Homestead when Andrew decided to turn and no one was ready. Right now a lot of people here in Central Florida think they are in the clear and that the panhandle is next in line. Can you or anyone else comment on this way of thinking?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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over time is has slowly gained latitude, and continues to do so... right now, albeit still early out, its right on teh forecast track... but hinting ever so slightly that it must be a shade to the left of the next forecast milestone, see loop below and click on forecast paths in upper right corner....
I do believe that once it dues turn north, and I think it will but I hope it doesn't, it will go right up that longitutide line for a long time... any shift to the NNE or NE,if it happens will come very late in the forecast track as it approaches landfall... but this could be critical in the long run.... also critical will be the strength, climatologically, very few Cat 4 or 5 hurricanes, other than , impact land from the NE.... the trof and/or upper level winds better be quite significant to make this happen....
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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The subsidence bulge is generally to the nw of the center approaching LA, but the upper air currents seem to suggest a NE bend at around 26.5-27.0. If this scenario holds look for a more eastward land fall to about Apalachecola. But this is a dynamic and if the forward speed does not increase the set up could be drastically different. I think forward momentum to the NW is the biggest variable right now as the dynamic is setting up pretty clearly...trough digging down to capture the storm...it is just a matter of timing now. I think the steady northward path into Pensacola is not likely, and is really improbable in a slower moving situation.
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doug
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Since the 5 day is now as accurate as the 3 day was 10 or 15 years ago, I am in favor of keeping it. There used to be a disclaimer at the end of every discussion that said "forecast errors may exceed several hundred miles"-and that was on a 3 day forecast. It is all relative in my opinion.
Edited by MrSpock (Mon Sep 13 2004 02:22 PM)
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dani
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Pensacola/Indianapolis
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html
Is where I saw the models.
Thanks,
dani
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dani
Go Green Bay!
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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I understand your concerns, as a fellow North GA resident (about 20 miles north of Atlanta) not too many people on this board understand our soft pine dilemma and what I would consider our inadequate city infrastructure.
You do not have to look too far back – - to see what 24 hours of “high” winds and rain can do to our great city. Coming out of a 5-year drought and pine beetle infestations our soft pines are weak and brittle, not to mention that they have a shallow root system, not good in strong winds.
As a previous person mentioned, the primary concern will be high winds and rain (flooding) but unlike , we will be more in the north/northeast part of the storm. Historically, most are the tornadoes are generated in that quadrant of tropical systems. The only “good” thing is that tropical spun tornadoes tend to be weak (0-1 on the scale) although had spun some particularly strong twisters – Hilton Head Island was fascinating by very dangerous. As of the 9/12 11pm reports, the center of will still maintain itself as a tropical storm as far inland as south of Rome, GA !!! That is impressive and scary.
At this point, if you know you have trees on your property that “could” reach your house, then I would see if you could get them removed. Trust me, it is a great investment. I pulled 40 pines last year from my backyard!! It was not cheap, but at least I do not evacuate to the bottom floor when the wind blows or when there is an ice storm.
Mitch…
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
Wont41 Knhc 131300
Dsaat
Special Tropical Disturbance Statement
Nws TPC/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
900 Am Edt Mon Sep 13 2004
Satellite Images And Surface Observations Indicate The Tropical Wave
Approaching The Leeward Islands Has Become Better Organized This
Morning...and It Could Become A Tropical Depression During The Next
24 Hours. The System Is Moving West-northwestward At About 10 Mph
And It Will Bring Locally Heavy Rains And Gusty Winds To The
Leeward Islands Today And Tomorrow.
Forecaster Stewart
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Richie at work
Unregistered
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The Keys are reopened and people are being sent into this. I know it's not a hurricane, but still. Why not wait a bit longer?
The stronger showers and thunderstorms will produce tropical wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph... cut visibility to under 1 mile in very heavy downpours. In addition... with each round of squalls and showers... rainfall amounts will average a half of an inch. This from Key West NWS.
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Kdubs
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
By the way Volume I on the main page article is so good I'm going to leave it up longer today.
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MikeC, where is this article you speak of? I couldn't locate it.
Thanks, Kyle
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South Orlando 
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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148
URNT12 KNHC 131404
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/1404Z
B. 20 DEG 28 MIN N
84 DEG 17 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2340 M
D. 60 KT
E. 218 DEG 052 NM
F. 306 DEG 140 KT
G. 207 DEG 015 NM
H. EXTRAP 913 MB
I. 12 C/ 3100 M
J. 18 C/ 3100 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C28
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF866 2809A OB 26
MAX FL WIND 151 KT NE QUAD 1006Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 700MB.
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Pressure extrap. at 913 shows it is falling again.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
By the way Volume I on the main page article is so good I'm going to leave it up longer today.
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MikeC, where is this article you speak of? I couldn't locate it.
Thanks, Kyle
I was talking about the long artice from Clark, Ed, Hank and I on the main page here.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Loc:
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Quote:
The Keys are reopened and people are being sent into this. I know it's not a hurricane, but still. Why not wait a bit longer?
The stronger showers and thunderstorms will produce tropical wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph... cut visibility to under 1 mile in very heavy downpours. In addition... with each round of squalls and showers... rainfall amounts will average a half of an inch. This from Key West NWS.
Well, welcome to normal Florida weather. We don't evacuate everytime a severe thunderstorm heads our way, do we? Please let people get on with their lives. There's no reason to let hold us hostage. And no, this doesn't mean anyone should let their guard down. We just need to teach and encourage people to act more rational in these situations.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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NW movment has started as of the 11am adv 
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Takingforever
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Philadelphia, PA
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Rational? I don't know...How can you be rational when these storms are not rational? After what did, I rather have everyone unrational, because we saw what happen when people forgot how these storms work(Not for us or our tracks). Hell, I'm still hearing people saying in the Fl panhandle: "If this thing a Cat 3, we're saying, but if it's a 4 or 5, we're out of here!"
I don't think they know what they are talking about with a Hurricane hitting them dead on in the first time in over 80 years. Rational..Rather not have them like that..
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Tallahassee
Unregistered
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Where do you find the 11:00 advisory early? wunderground used to get it out quite early, but not the last several times.
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Discussion not out yet, but the track seems to be a slight bit east of 5AM. Very small move, a little east. Also, now they maintain 120kts to landfall.
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